Ready for War with Iran?

Something that has been probably been on the backburner in terms of news, given Ukraine and the ongoing protests in Iran, has been the question of Iran's nuclear program.

Since Trump unilaterally terminated US participation in 2018, and especially after it became clear that the EU et al couldn't provide a sanctions workaround, Iran has been steadily disengaging from the deal, enriching more uranium to be a higher level than ever before, locking out access for IAEA inspectors, etc.

Despite Biden campaigning on re-entering the deal, it seems the window for that has closed, what with the new hardline president, Iran's military support for the Russian side in Ukraine, and the aforementioned protests that are continuing apace.

None of this however seems to be slowing down Iran's progress on its program. And although no one can credibly claim that Iran already has nukes or has definitively decided to build them, it is in pole position to do so should it choose.

Which leaves the problem as follows: what do we do if they go for the breakout? So far, sanctions across multiple administrations have hardly slowed it down, and if the experiences in places like North Korea hold any lessons, they most certainly will not stop them. The only other alternatives are to either semi tolerate Iran having them (a la North Korea), or strike their facilities and capabilities (which are hardly guaranteed to succeed anyway).

But who would strike Iran if it comes to that? Israel, possibly with US support? What if there is massive retaliation by Iran, something that no one is able to contain? Iran has already proven to have the ability to strike far and wide across the region when it chooses, and any direct strike on their nation, especially if it is by Israel, would almost certainly invoke such a response. And what if the strikes are ultimately unsuccessful, either through failing to completely destroy their program, or leaving them with enough to work with that they could rebuild? Do we go for multiple strikes, continuously, while risking constant Iranian retaliation? Remember, Iranian influence and proxies cut a long continuous "crescent" throughout the Middle East, stretching from Iran into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, etc. It has some of the largest oil producers well within its striking distance, and it has the ability to blockade or seriously bottleneck the crucial Strait of Hormuz should it choose to do so. And if so, we could be looking at not just human or material losses, but also brutal economic repercussions with massive oil spikes, just as the economic picture remains precarious at best, and we are already struggling to fill the void left by less Russian oil.

Still ready? Does anyone see a less violent way forward?

Another of trump's mistakes was ending that deal. If you were Iran would you voluntarily go back to it?

I agree with John Bolton on two key points:

First, the debate over hardline Iran vs moderate Iran is complete BS, wishful thinking, and ignorant of the basic facts.

Iran is ruled by a hardline zealot theocrat. The same guy has been in-charge since 1989 and he has absolute control. The notion that Iran has been, or could be, more moderate without some form of regime change is delusional. The place is run by a religious nutjob who controls a large array of brainwashed sycophants more than willing to die for the cause. The fact that he is willing to kill or imprison as many people as necessary to enforce strict adherence to head scarves should make that obvious. There is no moderate Iran with Khahmenei in charge.

Second, the nuclear deal was/is a bargain with the devil type of arrangement. Having the technology as a whole, centrifuges as a prime example, is half the problem. The debate about 3.67% purity vs now 60% is not as simple as the math appears. Having the technology to begin with is the primary problem. Getting to weapons grade becomes just a matter of time....and money.

The pro of the original deal was to slow roll the pace of the problem. The con of the original deal is it provided the regime with the funding to sustain itself and eventually ramp to weapons grade over time....knowing that it's financial reserves would grow to withstand any sanctions over a long period.

There are no good options. But the best option, IMO, is to support domestic Iranian opposition and arm the fcuk out of them. The primary question in my mind is when? The second question is who to arm?

The answer to the second question is the Kurds who are the largest minority and desperate for a homeland. That then raises huge major issues around Iraq and Turkey.

If I am war gaming this I am looking for Turkey to give a little, the dysfunctional Iraq to break up into 3 or more separate pieces, part of Iran to break away and join a new Kurdish state, and Iran to reborn Persia, possibly including the Shia part of Iraq. Turkey could cede some modest part to the Kurds, but it could also gain the Turkmen part of Iraq. I am not sure the best solution for Sunni Iraq.

Overall, what is required is new secular states largely organized around ethnicity in that region. To see this more clearly we have to accept that Iraq will never be functional, Iran can never be allowed to have nukes, Kurds will never stop dreaming about a homeland and Turkey needs to wake the fcuk up and start thinking long term instead of saddling itself with a backwards insular view of the past. The US needs to orchestrate and support...not do.

Vote for me and I will change the world :)

We should have never been in that deal.

Iran for me is not a worldwide concern, nukes or not. But I do think it is a serious concern for that part of the world, including our allies (specifically Israel, and even Europe).

They're not to be taken lightly, but I still think there is hope for diplomacy; the people of Iran are obviously pissed off and if supported they very well could overthrow the government. We've seen even authority figures--police and soldiers--join in with the protesters or take a back seat.

There's a reason why you only hear about the "morality police" committing harsh offenses against the people--a force comprised of religious country bumpkins bussed into the cities to beat up progressives--and not the armed forces.

Interesting post, though I am afraid the underlined is just too many pieces that need to fall in place. Still, I suppose crazier things have happened.

Never thought I'd agree with Bolton, especially since he is a bit of a hawk and not really a true diplomat, but he raises some good points.

Iran needs a regime change, plain and simple; I'm not sure the people can do it on their own, though, might need to be a coup d'état and I don't know if the military would do that. And Turkey needs to come back into the fold.

You can debate the initial parts of the deal all you want, but the fact is we were in a better place when we were in it than not. Trump made a serious error in that respect.

Another Trump failure. What a dumpster fire that guy was.

For now, we should definately not return to the deal, it was good for slowing down the issue. But, our priority now should be to support the protests. Probably arm them so they can defend themselves. Arms are a force multiplier, and even without being particularly armed. Iranian protestors are becoming too much for the government and morality police.

Gain right wing support under 2nd amendment rhetoric (which doesnt apply outside the US but whatever)
Gain left wing support under feminist and pro-minority rhetoric.

I highly doubt that US will go to war with Islamic Republic and their goons (IRGC), there are two factors you should take into consideration, first of all war is expensive and 2nd of all Islamic Republic is a kleptocratic government that is all bark and no bite, Moreover, it's been a long time since they've lost their legitimacy and respect in the eyes of the people. Iranians will never fight for them and Islamic Republic is already having a hard time to pay its own mercenaries in Syria and Iraq.

Welcome back :O

And yeah, Islamic Republic doesnt really stand a chance here. Even before the protests, their support among the people, especially the youth, was really low, likewise the youth were also far more tech savvy than the kleptocrats. As we have seen in ukraine Iranian weapons arent particularly good either. Should the west wish it, they could easily fund and arm the protestors and they will gladly topple the government, which should be both be cheaper more effective.

Edit: While I am not sure if this is the ideals held by everyone among the protestors (seeing as no group of people are a monolith), I think this is a really cool agenda.

https://iranfreedomcharter.com/english/

1. Equality for all, irrespective of sex, race, ethnicity, sexuality, ability and geographical and social status. A ban on discrimination against people, including migrants and refugees.

2. Full rights for women and LGBT, including equality under the law, reproductive rights, access to contraceptives, free and consensual adult sexual relations, right to cohabitation, marriage and divorce.

3. Unconditional freedom of speech, thought, expression, conscience and criticism. The full right of all people to form organisations, parties, associations, unions and groups without government interference. Freedom to protest and strike.

4. Abolition of the death penalty, stoning, torture and all inhuman and degrading punishment.

5. Equal rights for all children, whether born in or outside marriage and free medical, educational and cultural allowances and services for children and youth regardless of family circumstances.

6. Complete separation of religion from the state, judiciary and education. Religion and atheism as a private matter. An end to Sharia law and discriminatory practices, including compulsory veiling, sex apartheid, temporary marriage, polygamy, ‘honour’-related crimes and child marriage.

7. Freedom of press and media and an end to restrictions on communications, including the Internet, telephone and satellite television programmes.

8. Social welfare, including a living minimum wage, equal pay for women and men, free and universal education and health care, right to pension, annual leave, unemployment benefits and job security in all fields, both public and private.

9. Renewal and preservation of the environment and a ban on violence against animals.

10. The right to a fair and independent trial, prohibition of a judicial system based on vengeance, recognition of a person’s innocence until proven guilty. Prosecution and public trial of leaders and officials of the Islamic regime of Iran.

11. Free and fair elections. The right of all citizens to be elected at all levels. The establishment of a political structure based on direct and continuous involvement of the people in the matter of governance.

12. The future government of Iran is the matter of the people themselves without the interference of foreign governments. We want an Iran without nuclear weapons and energy.

Love all of that.

Send in the CIA, topple that government 😋

What is it with this country always wanting war. There is a bunch of idiots in this government and they are on TV proving it. they need to practice that one amendment where they stay out of other affairs. Iran has other country's around it. Same goes for the Ukraine issue, terrible country that was causing issues and Russia took care of it, while us of a that can't spell or read is supporting Ukraine with all types of crap. While Europe is hoping Ukraine is fixed and not causing problems lol. The 'people' in government here in USA need to realize before they were born this country existed and before their great grandparents even existed there were these 'founding father's' that created and formed this country. Not joe Biden and his retarded sun or Lucy pelosee who has helped turn California into a furnace. Hopefully people take more control of this country to like it was once upon a time.

Thanks bud, I truly appreciate your support. I just signed the charter and I hope one day we can achieve achieve that for the people and women of Iran.

Eh it doesnt matter. If Israel, Pakistan and India can have their illegal nuclear weapon which USA never voiced out why not Iran. Let them kill eachother afterwards.

You are welcome, I hope western awareness and support increases. Because this is something everyone should support. The Putin Regime and the Islamic Republic are 2 governments I hope to see fall soon, and liberate the people living in their respective countries.

My Discord Avatar of Mahsa Amani is NOT changing until the Iranian Regime changes.

Your support means the world 🙏

Send me in with a glock I'll be ruling over the region like some kind of Kevin Costner wannabe

@jetpower3: We kicked Iraq's backside in 2 weeks. We kicked the Taliban's backside in 3 weeks. I am not afraid of Iran.

And, if we pulled a "you are conquered" vs "we are liberators", we won't have the mistakes in Iraq repeat themselves.