Star Wars: The Old Republic sales could already be 1.5M - Analyst

Cowen & Company's Doug Creutz estimates substantial preorders based on capacity of EA's 140 MMO servers.

Star Wars: The Old Republic can't be bought in stores until tomorrow, but already Electronic Arts is having a hard time keeping up with demand. Just how big is that demand? According to Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz, between 1 million and 1.5 million players are already jockeying for position in The Old Republic's servers.

Don't let these city streets fool you. Star Wars: The Old Republic is packed.

Creutz's estimate is based on the fact that EA now has 140 Old Republic servers online, with 77 handling US players and 63 for Europe. That figure is significantly up from the 106 servers The Old Republic had online as of Wednesday, one day after EA began inviting preorder customers into the game.

Of those 140 servers, Creutz said that at the time of his checks, 54 were labeled as full, 23 were in a state of very heavy use, 41 came in at heavy, 20 were standard, and two were light.

By contrast, Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft has 491 servers online in the US and Europe. Creutz estimates 4 million to 4.5 million of WOW's 10.3 million players can be found on those nearly 500 Western servers. However, the analyst did say that it is not clear whether the two games have similar player capacities per server, though he speculated that The Old Republic's is denser.

Based on preorder demand, Creutz reaffirmed his expectation of 2 million subscribers for The Old Republic by March 31, 2013.

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85 comments
bonander
bonander

@LilRussh That's good to hear. Thanks for the info.

dkdk999
dkdk999

"by march 31 2013" doesn't he mean 2012 ?

daub11
daub11

it's kinda cool when on this game you get to choose which side to be on.so i wonder if this game is going to be 2 players or just one player.

Snaptrap
Snaptrap

@Albaficas Aion sold over 1.5 million copies in NA two months after release. They had fewer servers because their server cap is higher. That's pretty good considering they never had a franchise name to push sales. When it comes to MMO's a name can only carry you so far - experience carries you the rest of the way.

megakick
megakick

It might. Look how fast other MMO went F2P. SW:TOR has to do really well to make a penny unlike WOW. So what is Lucas cut?

Albaficas
Albaficas

wexorian u forgot 2 things the name STAR WARS BIOWARE this game will not go f2p as much blizz fangirls want it to be

Albaficas
Albaficas

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Albaficas
Albaficas

this game ill reach 4mil with eaze around q3

Albaficas
Albaficas

Pyerun this is not ncsoft this is B.I.O.W.A.R.E deal with it this game is here to stay coprende? kkthxbb

Pyerun
Pyerun

In a few months, there will be less than 200K subs. In a year, there will be less than 50K subs.

TerrorRizzing
TerrorRizzing

I think its higher, 1.5 million us only maybe.

tehplayah
tehplayah

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

Triton
Triton

In unrelated news, WoW is down between 1 and 1.5 million users.

James00715
James00715

I say it will hit 3 million by the end of the first month of release (January 20). Tons of former WoW players and a few new players too have been waiting for this game.

hojo80
hojo80

All I know is that I've tried MMORPGs before and this is the first one that I didn't get completely bored with in a few hours. I feel like I own my story despite it being the same for everyone else in the class. But with some intuitive custom keybindings and some extra levels out I've been able to play without frustration by myself.

666NightsInHell
666NightsInHell

I prefer games where i choose, pay or not pay, this game force people to pay,fail, will lost lots of players in so huge free to play mmorpg market, gw always suck , pokemon mmo for preteens

wexorian
wexorian

I hope we won't see same comments when Guild war2 will be launched becuase it would mean that Game sucked :D

SaviorXavi3r
SaviorXavi3r

I am really enjoying the game so far. Been in since last Thursday and its been a really great experience. The hard part is that im not one who chose a side in the WoW v SWTOR debate. I play WoW bc its fun and I play SW bc its fun. This means I have 2 games I want to be playing. WoW bc i raid and this bc its new and awesome.

jazilla
jazilla

I would imagine this is true if there aren't already more people than that. People like BioWare games. Will be interesting to see if people keep playing once the sub starts. Very interested in how BioWare handles changes to their game as well.

liam82517
liam82517

I wish I could move my character to another server. My server is full almost always yet Ill see all the ones below it with space.

wexorian
wexorian

i'l wait for review More gameplay vids and raids if there are in game, then I'l Think buy or not to buy game, sadly MOST "woaa" MMO s being free 2 play after 1 year, Champions online,Dcuo,Aion soon Rift seems, so let's wait and don't Be amaze because game sold aka 2 million , also i think that bioware will get my money for Mass effect 3 and not for another MMO.

JLCrogue
JLCrogue

It's before 8 in the morning and my server is already full! I wish there were less people playing SWTOR!

LilRussh
LilRussh

@Bonander don't worry about the space combat, they said it will be will be more in depth later on, but they don't want to give too much away atm. So be on the look out for it, hopefully the change it to make it more like SW Battlefront II.

LilRussh
LilRussh

Bioware has never failed to produce good content after a game release, even DA2 DLC was decent. I just hope that EA doesn't push them too hard or to fast to get the content out, but nonetheless the best of Bioware is sure to come.

Albaficas
Albaficas

Maddogtaylor i played that 1 pixel game for 3.5 years and just a week in swtor and i can tell that swtor is in every single way (except UI atm) better than wow. Everything that wow do swtor do it better

Albaficas
Albaficas

Snaptrap still not like swtor do atm Aion had less servers-sales in NA-EU And the fact that u even dare to compare crappy asians mmo's with western mmo's make u sound like an idiot sry

Albaficas
Albaficas

JimboMcBob83 bioware said in public that they will add content faster than any other mmo's out there so means even faster than rift so i dont worry. SWTOR is the best mmo to date

JimboMcBob83
JimboMcBob83

I think over 200 servers now. Get the feeling they will be over 2mil in the next few weeks and more like 3mill plus in March. Longetivity wise though is anyone's guess. I've seen a few level 50s already (have 21,11 and 10 myself after just a few evenings) and it's gonna depend on the addition of content imo.

sune_Gem
sune_Gem

I was skeptical about this game when it was announced, I wanted it to be good seeing as the overall idea seemed interesting. After playing the beta briefly I'm happy that for the most part it seems to be the game we hoped for, although I didn't get too far into the game to see how well it holds up throughout. I think the wise choice for me here would be too still wait for the reviews to see if the game holds up through the leveling experience and to wait for the servers to calm down a bit before purchasing, but I do intend too.

Snaptrap
Snaptrap

I remember when Aion launched - there were tons of people on several servers. After 3yrs now look at it.

Maddogtaylor
Maddogtaylor

@allmightydog because wow has gone on too long, it wont go on forever because even the most die hard and addicted people who play it will get bored eventually and the idea of star wars has been with us for a while now so people will eat it up if its done well. this has the potential to be the longest running game too because its setting is the universe meaning practially limitless expansion so as much as i did like wow no doubt it will be outclassed by this game

ALLMIGHTYDOG
ALLMIGHTYDOG

Why are people (including the Media) all talking about a WoW killer? There are dozens of games out there with a similar setting to WoW which compete and have its own player base. Yes, it would be great if numbers are big so that the game continues and grows like it deserves, but why the need to wipe out all other games while you are at it?

DeViLzzz
DeViLzzz

I cancelled my preorder when I thought my brother wasn't going to play. Guess he was just saying that so he didn't have to group with me. LOL

Soothsayer42
Soothsayer42

Have fun to everyone who is playing this. Im done with MMO's :)

Gladestone1
Gladestone1

@made_u_look Im a armed guard work for dunbar..Work six days a week..Some times 14 hour days...If any one knows about demanding jobs its me..Look there is no reason to hit lvl 50 right off the bat in a week..What will you do raids for a little bit..How much raid material can be in the game at this time??Just makes no sence to me..Enjoy the content for a year learn to raid..Let them build the expansion pack and so forth...

wavelength121
wavelength121

I'll be skipping the next overrated Star Wars game, thanks

unreal_master
unreal_master

Honestly what other mmo is there to play? Mine as well get your feet wet until d3 and guild wars 2.

liketires
liketires

I impulse pre-ordered this game and wound up paying full price for it anyway. I'm SO glad it rocks, I was literally cheering when i finally got my space ship. The depth of this game is so compelling, i cant believe i wasted 4 years on WoW, this is my new game.

bonander
bonander

The game is a blast. It's the first time that I've ever cared about the "story" in an MMO. All quests are wonderfully voice acted. I was a little disappointed by the space combat. I guess I was hoping for something more like the Jump To Lightspeed expansion for SWG

Lach0121
Lach0121

It may not the best in the MMO criteria, But It seems to fill my want for a Kotor game for a while, (and I can be all sorts of classes, and play with my friends/family, and make new friends) I have said this a bunch, but So far it feels like a very flexible Multiplayer Massive-KOTOR game (not a miss type) Plus the game will have content constantly added over time. Also expansions/DLC. I will end up putting a lot of hours into this game! It will only get better with time, there is a hell of a seed planted with TOR at launch, that is great, and has potential to be way better, Lets hope BW/EA keep their word about the Support this game will have.

tachsniper
tachsniper

initial sales in an MMO does not matter. What matters is how many you have left after the free month drop off.

firedrakes
firedrakes

dont care about this stats till people pay for them and walk out the door

geff22
geff22

No surprise and very believable, especially if people bought the limited edition like I have done. Let's just hope EA games doesn't start to poke around trying to increase profits with their bright ideas....

Madbane
Madbane

this game is just awesome

Breyant
Breyant

Great game! It's nice to finally start an MMO I plan on playing longer than the free month.

MoreThot
MoreThot

hmm... That's gotta be a typo. 2 million by march 2013? I bet there's at least 3 million by march 2012!

Barighm
Barighm

Starting out well. A cool dialogue system. Not just another MMORPG. Based on an established franchise, both in terms of the license and where the game originated. Has enough people to pull friends away from wherever, and the story is good enough for fans of Knights to be worth leveling at least one character. I say this game is well on its way to the 7 million sub. mark I predicted. And this may not be a WoW killer, but between this game, Guild Wars, Diablo 3, and apparently Skyrim based on its sales, plus WoW's age...well, you can't say the blow won't hurt.

GamerJedi29
GamerJedi29

@Shawn45 I've been in Early access since tuesday, and I can confidently say that there will probably be A LOT of people playing past the free month.

DrkeX
DrkeX

Didn't this game set the record for most Pre-Orders ever for MMORPGs? WoW only had like 700k, but that was before MMOs were "mainstream"