Gaming set to grow through August 2010 - Analyst

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter predicts that after potentially disappointing October results, "double-digit gains will be the norm" until the back half of next year.

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The industry-tracking NPD Group yesterday released its US retail sales figures for September, and the numbers--while positive for the first time in six months--didn't live up to expectations. Today, Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter released a note to investors, echoing a fellow analyst's warning about the current month's sales while painting a rosier longer-term picture of the industry.

Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band may have disappointed in their retail debuts, but Pachter expects game sales to turn it up next month.

"We think that very solid hardware sales will continue in October, but expect the month to show a slight year-over-year decline, meaning that investors will likely have to be patient until the November sales data is released to see a substantial rebound in growth," Pachter said. "From November forward, we think that double-digit gains will be the norm, at least through August 2010."

In assessing what went wrong with his estimates for the September sales--which were up 5 percent when Pachter had predicted 21 percent--the analyst pointed to the music genre specifically. He had predicted the Guitar Hero and Rock Band franchises to bring in $220 million for the month with new releases like The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5. However, Pachter said the NPD Group's figures showed the brands generating just $115 million combined.

"What's striking is the low overall dollar figure for the two games, which were out for almost the entire month," he told GameSpot. "[The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5] combined fell short of $100 million, and I had forecast $210 million."

Discussion

57 comments
KrazzyDJ
KrazzyDJ

Supposedly, Modern Warfare 2 will bring gamers back to the stores.

rann89
rann89

I don't know. Considering the $10 hike in games, and people knowing games aren't even being completed now because they save stuff to sell as DLC, you can't compare gaming norms as they were the last few years. Unless you want to be left out of the loop, you're going to spend about 5-15 more dollars on already-60 dollar games. These "analysts" are just hoping Christmas is successful; I wouldn't bet on it.

MATERAZZI_23
MATERAZZI_23

LoL he's just off by over $110 million. EPIC FAIL!!!

Trogeton
Trogeton

Well Duh that is when people start buying stuff for Christmas anyone could have thought of that

Its_a_me_luigi
Its_a_me_luigi

Somebody, quote me! After MW2, AC2, Dragon Age: Origins, New Super Mario Bros, and more, the gaming industry will grow. I have just made a prediction, that is most likely true. I think I might be a genius!

Cwagmire21
Cwagmire21

Oh Michael Pachter - most overused analyst by GS.

SadPSPAddict
SadPSPAddict

Now maybe developers can concentrate on some new games rather than very old and tired re-makes of things like RB and GH!!!

UnknownForm
UnknownForm

You better be right, Michael Pachter!!!!

mutual-assassin
mutual-assassin

I'd much rather listen to a mute Rabbi's predictions than this guys.

ZedX-14Pilot
ZedX-14Pilot

Is this guy serious? This guy is a complete tool! He has been so wrong the last few months, why is gamespot continuing to quote this idiot?

Barhooom
Barhooom

Given that this guy is never right... I feel bad for the gaming industry

ASG_
ASG_

@iilsSueZ Now that was funny.

iiIsSueZ
iiIsSueZ

Arkham and Uncharted 2 are 2 of the best games I've ever played. To be honest, this guy can't be wrong about next month. HUGE titles coming up including MW2, Assassin's Creed 2, Dragon Age: Origins etc. To be honest, my 80 year old granny could have predicted and increase in sales next month with those big boys on the way.

brian_13un
brian_13un

There are still great titles coming up don't worry ^_^

Yuck_Too
Yuck_Too

Oh my gawd...seriously he is still talking?...and we are still listening? Analyst Michael Patcher is clueless...honestly...he's the guy that 70% of the time is completely wrong and the other 30% he is only slightly wrong... This is the guy that predicted the Wii would be lucky to capture 34% of the console market. That Midway was worth investing in 2008 (promptly followed by Midway filing for bankruptcy). And that by 2009 the PSP and DS combined would sell 43 Million with the PSP outselling the DS. Then Patcher has the less-game related predictions that for example the reason Ken Kutaragi was promoted "out" of Sony was because he was going to replace Howard Stringer as CEO. And perhaps Patchers best "fail" prediction... he said: "I don't think there are four million people in the world who really want to play online games every month (refering to WoW and MMO's in general)... eventually it will come back to the mean, maybe a million subscribers." How this guy still have a job is beyond me...what I do know...you are much better off betting against him no matter what he says.

Gjinckxs85
Gjinckxs85

1: Those games are getting old. 2: Gaming will always be growing (DUH!). 3: You can't predict the future. 4: Who would listen to this guys garbage anyways?

bobbysbits
bobbysbits

it's good to know we can trust him...

Javico3000
Javico3000

Junglemanchild has a good point... that must be the most critical reason, it doesn't matter if the guy just printed a guess, sometimes games produce a bit more than expected, or a bit less, but if they produced 1 guitar hero game a year... this year's game would have been purchased a lot more... just like Madden or Fifa

dynomitemasta
dynomitemasta

This guy isn't even a gamer/analyst, he's a game industry analyst. There are plenty of gamer analysts out there who are far more accurate in their predictions then this guy. Without being a die hard gamer you don't have your finger on the pulse of the gaming world which is probably why this guy is wrong 90% of the time. Really, just stop printing his guesses.,, please.

JunglemanchiId
JunglemanchiId

Sales for Guitar Hero etc are bad because they release about 20 a year. If they made one massive game for each year then they would sell a ridiculous amount of games every time. Instead of themed games and lego versions, nonsense. For the price of each new version of these games and the equipment you could buy a guitar :P

cyberdreamer
cyberdreamer

A reason for gaming companies to smile................maybe.

ShackleODeal
ShackleODeal

As long as games stop being delayed like they have this year it should be an ok year.

DoomZaW
DoomZaW

Dare i say i doubt him just a little bit, based on his previous predictions?

Override3215
Override3215

anyone can make up statistics 40% of people know that!

monson21502
monson21502

this guy is a big headed man with no brains. i bet he never farts, because he is always blowing hot air out his mouth.

Tauu
Tauu

Michael Pachter is the man!!!!

meathead86
meathead86

boring what a dumb game how many young people do you think listen to the beatles there way better games coming out

benboz
benboz

Like who wants to play The Beatles Rock Band game? Like c'mon there is has to be something better than that.

Torque203
Torque203

these statistics are so stupid. the best movies come out in the summer. summer blockbuster and the best video games start coming out November through the rest of the year till the next summer block buster

majikninja69
majikninja69

sales are bad cause the setlists are bad come on guys put better song on, reach out a little & as for other games come on the best games aint even out yet wait for chrisy

mariostar0001
mariostar0001

Sales will be rising, the hardcores have dead space, halo 3: ODST, Borderlands, and various other titles, while the casuals have Mario & Sonic 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, three different Lego games, and Sonic & Sega Racing. Sales will rise because people will buy games around Christmas when they all come out.

OldSchoolViper
OldSchoolViper

I expect sales to skyrocket in these last 3 months

Swavo69420
Swavo69420

Early To Mid 2010 looks good but expensive... Bayonetta Dark Void God Of War III Red Dead Redemption Gran Turismo 5 Bioshock 2 Mod Nation Racers Final Fantasy XIII and XIV The Last Guardian MAG Heavy Rain Battlefield: Bad Company 2 MLB 10: The Show Crysis 2 Super Street Fighter 4 Skate 3 Mafia 2 Max Payne 3 It will slow down in the summer like always but I'm sure they'll be some delays and some anouncements at E3 for Fall 2010... Can't Wait...

Leg3nd4ry
Leg3nd4ry

@ ColonelX24 Dragon age, modern warfare 2, assassins creed 2, and new super mario bros. are among some of the big titles to be released next month.

Thatguysawesome
Thatguysawesome

Dum di dum di dum! Well duh!! Of course sales will go up! Later this month we have Gay tony, Borderlands. Nov is Modern Warfare 2, Assassins Creed 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Then there's all those anticipated titles moved to early next year. Thank you for stating the obvious! and you get paid for that? Wow

itsTolkien_time
itsTolkien_time

Christmas coming. Games sales ris as all the highly anticipated titles are released around the holidays. I can be an analyst too! -_- Do I really care if this certain analyst's prediction failed? Gaming is growing, as it has been since (like the below post says) the SNES came out.

Gamesterpheonix
Gamesterpheonix

Um. Alrighty. Thanks. *Goes back to forum* Its been growing since Super Nintendo. Who cares.

xert420
xert420

This just in.......Good games coming out soooo sales will rise, wow i should be a anlayst :)

gatsbythepig
gatsbythepig

I hope he's right, two months ago I invested a lot in ea and gamestop

whataguy69
whataguy69

EVERYTIME I SEE THAT PACHTER GUY HE ALWAYS PREDICTS AND THINKS HE KNOWS EVERYTHING. I SAY SHUT YOUR MOUTH.

ColonelX24
ColonelX24

So next month is going to be better what comes out next month? Modern Warfare 2. Should be a great game, but can anyone think of anything else?

Waldkrieger
Waldkrieger

I think its about ENOUGH with all this Analyst crap. One month sales are down, the next up. They just said in another post how bad things were, now this. Who wastes all this money on such garbage? And who cares!! I'm sick of seeing all this nonsense on here. It makes no difference and is a waste of time and money. Btw, they spelled Analyst wrong...."Anlayst"