Destiny Could Sell 10-15 Million Copies, More Than Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, Analyst Says

That would be around $600 to $900 million in sales.

Activision is making a huge bet on Destiny, and according to one analyst it’s likely to pay off to the tune of 10 to 15 million copies sold, or an estimated $600 to $900 million.

In comparison, Nintendo's Mario Kart Wii--one of the best-selling games in history--has sold-through more than 35.5 million copies life-to-date, and Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto V has shipped (not sold) 33 million copies to date.

According to a report from Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz that was published by VentureBeat, Destiny could become the best-selling game of 2014. Creutz’ projection is based on “Cowen’s Ordometer,” which estimates how many copies a game will sell based on the number of pre-orders and data from Amazon and the NPD Group’s reports on physical game sales.

According to Creutz, Destiny has the highest Ordometer score in the last four years, and is poised to outsell Activision’s other huge first-person shooter, Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare. The Cowen 2014 Video Game Ordometer current top five games are:

  1. Destiny
  2. Halo: The Master Chief Collection
  3. Assassin’s Creed Unity
  4. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
  5. Far Cry 4

A projection based on pre-orders might be skewed in Destiny’s favor because Bungie and Activision have been advertising the fact that players can get into its beta by pre-ordering the game. You can certainly pre-order the other games on the list, but one could argue that there isn’t as strong as an incentive to do so.

Activision’s Chief Executive Officer Bobby Kotick previously suggested that the publisher will invest $500 million in Destiny (which according to Cowen’s estimate means it would still turn a profit), but developer Bungie has since said that the game’s budget is nowhere near that figure.

Destiny launches for Xbox 360, Xbox One, PlayStation 3, and PlayStation 4 on September 9. We thought that the game looked promising when we got our hands on the alpha build earlier this month.

Emanuel Maiberg is a freelance writer. You can follow him on Twitter @emanuelmaiberg and Google+.

Got a news tip or want to contact us directly? Email news@gamespot.com

Written By

Emanuel Maiberg is a freelance writer in search of the Citizen Kane of burritos.

Discussion

238 comments
dustdevil15
dustdevil15

I'm not an analyst or anything but, I'm calling this one a hit too. It's not even so much about the Halo-esque gameplay as it's about the mashup of genres, it seems innovative, and call me out if I'm wrong, but I don't think an MMO/RPG/FPS is a common mashup, even if it has been done before.

papachump
papachump

Been a gamer for 35+ years called a lot of popular titles before their time, and I am calling this one.

After having seen the dev and gameplay videos, and having played the alpha extensively: Destiny *will* be a massive hit. Likely even a cultural phenomenon on the level of Halo and CoD, and certain to outsell every other game released this year.

On a side note there seems to be some confusion about the game, it is NOT a multiplayer only game. You can very much play the game *completely* offline. Given the choice I'm quite sure that most will choose online but you absolutely do have the option.

"That wizard came from the moon!"

-Peter Dinklage, even when he's 'phoning it in' still makes memes.

cashandchecks
cashandchecks

Who the hell do these analyse work for?? my goodness get real people, I guess they are basing it off of how many Xbox Ones and PS4s have been sold. This game is going to sell 50 million copies hands down. Drops the Mic. Just and see.

JtheGrind
JtheGrind

So just give or take 5 million...right?

ecs33
ecs33

Destiny looks awesome...I've been looking for a good MMORPG/first person hybrid and this appears to be it. Sucks that it isn't coming on PC but this game would be a reason that I would buy a nextgen console. 

Sevenizz
Sevenizz

Hi fake hype thread - how are you?

Not interested in Halo Lite when there's a real Halo, 4 of them, actually - a month later.

Halo Collection > Destiny

archav3n
archav3n

They could be right as considering the game is on old gen. Taking assumption that most if not all next-gen console gamers will buy this game. Why? Because they have no games so they are forced to buy. Secondly if only 20% of all console users buy the last gen then it's achievable. But if old gen gamers have moved on to PC, then they probably f*cked.

hotwog21
hotwog21

titanfall

cloud

300,000 fake cloud servers

rumble triggers

smartglass

smarter matchmaking

titanfall

killer instinct

3 operating systems

snap

fantasy football

tv

call of duty

dlc that that thins player pools

kinect

300,000 fake cloud servers

hype

buzzwords

promises

future

hope

firmward updates

just wait for the next patch its going to be awesome

the power not yet realised

potential not yet unlocked

Gankstar_VX84
Gankstar_VX84

bungie are in a very unique position, if the game was a true mmo it would probably cause sales to skyrocket but cuz it's _another_ fps ppl don't really care that much

cboye18
cboye18

Sorry but the game is over-hyped. Halo rise to fame because of lack of multiplayer and FPS (when they weren't saturated back then). This game looks like another generic sci-fi FPS a la Borderlands with no new interesting gameplay mechanic. 

phillybro806
phillybro806

I really don't think it will sell as great as they think it will. I don't see the casual gamer picking this up over or with CoD. Alot CoD players are not hard core gamers. These type of people usually buy CoD and a sports title out of the whole year. I just don't see those type of gamers buying this game.

ecurl143
ecurl143

10-15 million?

Errrrr....I don't think so.

immortaltech6
immortaltech6

$*&# these analysts. 


It's like the movie "Big" but with videogames instead of toys. Tom Hanks represents the gamers, and all these analysts with their fancy marketing reports are all the other adults. 

vladric
vladric

hm don't know if i'm going to buy this from the gameplay videos it looks boring.

McGregor
McGregor

If it were coming to PC, they would sell 10-15 million and one. I've long debated if I'm going to buy a console this generation, and so far, I haven't had a reason to. I know I'll miss some exclusives (like Destiny), but I can't bring myself to spend $400 for exclusive games. On top of that, the steam sale has added about 30 games to my backlog haha.

pnova
pnova

In my opinion halo is an overhype game, the reason why it's said to be so good is because it's cult following hype. The game is not that good when you actually play it.

Sozialminister
Sozialminister

That analyst doesnt know that most gamers preordered Destiny to have beta access. Like it will beat Call of Duty.


Otherwise this list looks really sad. all 5 games are casual games. 4 of them are generic casual shooters. The number 2 in the spot is even just a remake collection of generic casual shooters. Gamers these days hate innovation and good gameplay.

pnova
pnova

According to watch dogs. Destiny will sell the most on PS4 and sell over 2 million copies and one week, bye

jsmoke03
jsmoke03

thats a great accomplishment for a new ip to sell 10-15 million

Zicoroen
Zicoroen

10 to 15 million copies sold. One year?

HaloinventedFPS
HaloinventedFPS

It's a Borderlands clone, Acti don't know anything about gaming, this isn't going to sell 15mil copies

vadagar1
vadagar1

i estimate it will sell between 1 and 10 billion copies


so u can pick a number in between

Flonne_N_Etna
Flonne_N_Etna

@papachump I'm pretty sure it's online only, although you can play alone (online) if you want to. Pretty cite any sources if you're sure you're correct. I would definitely buy the game if that were the case.

cashandchecks
cashandchecks

@Sevenizz The only thing Halo has on Destiny is PVP, thats all, and if they can fix that, Halo wont be shyt, hands down Destiny takes this crown.

djentmaven
djentmaven

@Sevenizz Destiny is a million times better than Halo, especially the 10 year old games running on original xbox engines.

repetitiousv2
repetitiousv2

@hotwog21 and hotwog, still waiting for xmas in hopes his mother buys him a system to play...until then he will hate on....

Sevenizz
Sevenizz

And on the other side - Knack.

Nope - I'll stick with Xbox tyvm.

domisbatman
domisbatman

@cboye18 I can yell you haven't been following this game or played the Alpha. Multiple game sites including Gamespot says it's nothing like Borderlands,if you played 10 mins of it you would know this

ecs33
ecs33

@cboye18 Borderlands isn't an MMO though. Huge difference.


There is absolutely no game on the market that offers the MMORPG/first person hybrid. This game is very unique and I say this as a non halo fan.

The_Last_Paladi
The_Last_Paladi

@phillybro806 I dunno, I do not FPS but this game is a day one buy for me...I am seriously surprise I was convince to pick this up.  I can only imagine other people feeling the same.  I really do think this game is going to be pretty big.  No hyping, just my own personal opinion.

spartanx169x
spartanx169x

@McGregor  I  have my consoles to be able to play with friends that have consoles. I play single player games on PC.

seanwil545
seanwil545

@McGregor 

Well, if it flops on console...I suspect it'll make its way to PC in record time.

Bungie will be scrambling to recoup some of that revenue.

Sevenizz
Sevenizz

Halo 2 multiplayer.

Nuff said.

cboye18
cboye18

@pnova I never thought it was special, at all. I'd rather play Starwars Battlefront at the time...

Bread_or_Decide
Bread_or_Decide

@pnova Yes you're right all the millions of people who enjoy it are only pretending to be having fun. 

Sevenizz
Sevenizz

I'm sorry you're not good at CoD online - but calling it generic is just stupid.

jsmoke03
jsmoke03

@Printul_Noptii it was only for 3 platforms...this includes playstation platforms....and im sure pc will get a ported copy of it

ecs33
ecs33

@HaloinventedFPS How so? Borderlands isn't an MMO. If Borderlands offered an MMO experience, I'd probably still be playing it. Borderlands is so easy to hack and there's no real challenge once you reach a certain point. The RPG experience in Borderlands is great but there really isn't much of an end game.

I'm looking for something more competitive and in line with actual MMO's, and this appears to offer that.


Huge difference between this and Borderlands.It's like comparing open battle.net Diablo 2 with Diablo 2 on dedicated servers.

Sevenizz
Sevenizz

Yea, let's ditch it's entire story/lore that has inspired countless fan fiction, novels, and a TV series produced by Steven Spielberg.

Yea, Halo only is revered by many only for it's PvP.

spartanx169x
spartanx169x

@djentmaven @Sevenizz  You may be right, , but Bungie has to convince the mass public of that and not just the mass public , the Game critics too. Personally l I love the game. But the game websites have criticized it as mediocre.

domisbatman
domisbatman

@Sevenizz If Knack is the worst thing PS has I'll take it. Does Fighter Within ring any bells ? Ryse ? Two can play that game

West123
West123

@The_Last_Paladi but your a hardcore gamer dude...the guys hes taking about dont go on gaming websites let alone comment about them 

pnova
pnova

@spartanx169x @djentmaven @Sevenizz Destiny has the most preorders of of all recent games and is about to sell more than watch dogs and watch dogs sold (especially on PS4)  a lot over 6 million. So they right, it's about to sell 10 to 15 million.

Sevenizz
Sevenizz

Ryse isn't that bad - I rather enjoyed it. I do understand the criticism though. It does get repetitive. I haven't played Fighter, but I'd try it if it was in a bargain bin.

The_Last_Paladi
The_Last_Paladi

@West123 @The_Last_Paladi That's true man, but one thing about us gamers-type, we tend to set the trend for others to play. I really think this game came at the right time.  The new generation system don't have many (if any) huge IPs right now and people are hungry to try something different. Destiny is just different enough to really get people excited.  Even casual gamers will probably be a bit interested if you tell them the game is made from the same people who made the Halo games.  Now I don't know if I quite agree with the analyst's prediction as far as Numbers goes, but I really do see this as being the biggest game for 2014, and I do see huge sales numbers.

spartanx169x
spartanx169x

@pnova If the pre-orders translate into sales. The beta coming soon I think will make it or break it for the game.

yoloman101
yoloman101

@Sevenizz  knack, killzone shadow fall, inFAMOUS Second Son, uncharted 4, driveclub, The last of us remastered, Undead & Undressed, Bloodborne, The Order: 1886, Eve Valkyrie, Deep Down, Everybody’s Gone to the Rapture, Abzu, No Man’s Sky, LittleBigPlanet 3, Warthunder, Planetside 2, warframe, blacklight retribution, DayZ, H1Z1, The New God of war, And a ton of indie games. And much much more.

Sevenizz
Sevenizz

Thx for the list - but I'll stick with Xbox. None of those justify a PS4 purchase for me.