No, I'm making highly accurate and educated assumptions based on my experience and keen business acumen.
You don't just go from 1 billion LTD sales to 30 million LTD sales without incurring hefty component price hikes.
Which is fancy talk for making it up based on assumptions. None of us know what prices MS pays for components, we don't know what deals they have in place and any clauses in those deals. You're looking at the NPD numbers and suddenly proclaiming that MS is panicking.
MS has enough profits they can afford not to panic. The biggest loss they took was the Nokia purchase. If they want to stay the course in gaming, they have the funds to do so. Same with Sony and Nintendo.