I think if the Xbox doesn't meet expectations it'll drop it's price sooner rather than later. It all depends on what MS expectations are though. Same thing when the PS3 launched. It had a price drop rather quick and that was because of it's lack luster sales.
I am waiting til Black Friday of next year, but not for a price drop. I just want all the bugs worked out as well as a larger library of games to select from. Then there is the fact that I have a ton of games on my backlog to work through first.