I imagine its performance will be measured not by traditional sales metrics but by its ability to recruit users and activity to the Microsoft Game Pass, same way Netflix is stacking the deck with originals to keep engaged subscribers.
It's a smarter approach IMO, given how online involved this game is then this will help keep the community strong. As one of those games better played with friends, there's always a worry that some people you play online with will be interested in paying full price, but as a game offered through a nominal fee like what Game Pass offers, it might be a more likely scenario to get friends interested in trying new games together, not just for Sea of Thieves, but other Microsoft exclusives going forward.
I also imagine this takes some pressure off Rare to succeed commercially, even critically well celebrated games don't mean much if people don't buy them.
But, then again, not having a traditional sales model might mean their performance for what Microsoft expects of them might be measures through the ability to get people to engage in microtransactions... and, well, the Internet loves ripping on game makers for trying to make money like they are greedier than any other major business. Man what I wouldn't give to see the internet lose their shit the same way to pass stuff like meaningful healthcare reform, gun control, criminal justice reform, whatever, even something so not important like protesting price of movie tickets and concessions. But, whatever, priorities.
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