I think there's lots of variables at play. For one, there's the economy. Besides that, it's been a dry year. Most major releases happened in the first quarter. It would be hard to qualify what impact each has.
Q1 2022 was down 8% YoY while Q1 2021 was up 30% YoY. Could be a decline of engagement with 8th gen devices coinciding with growth of 9th gen adoption, which itself is being hindered by production/supply issues. I imagine a great degree of money people would spend on games is being eaten up by scalper costs. That surely has to be a contributing factor.
I don't think game subscription services are to blame. MS claims Game Pass users have higher user engagement and spend 50% more money on games than non-subscribers. I imagine PS Plus Extra/Premium might have similar correlation.
I actually have pondered whether BC is a factor. Rather than just getting new consoles and putting older ones (and all the games) in the rear view mirror, bridging of 8th and 9th gen catalogs means people playing on current gen consoles have a lot more options, plus older games have enhancements. On the fence about getting some new $70 AAA game? Get one of many celebrated titles you had wanted to play but hadn't found the time to try yet on sale for a few dollars. Or, keep working on your backlog. Current gen consoles are no longer confined to just the slowly growing catalogs of current gen titles.
Anyhow, no point trying to blame one thing right now. The end of the year looks stronger as far as releases are concerned, that might be a better indicator of the market depending on how things go.
As far as economic concerns go, I had heard countless times how when there's recessions, the movie industry thrives because people look for escapes from their troubles. Now we live in an age where gaming is larger than Hollywood. And unlike film industry where tickets and concessions have have always adjusted to inflation, games haven't, making gaming more affordable than ever against modern average wages.
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