I think it will be more powerful than many are assuming. I keep hearing people say that it will be no more powerful than the PS3 or 360. I predict this will not be the case.
My reasoning is this: if Nintendo is trying to win back the hardcore and get more 3rd party support, as the rumors suggest, then launching a console that is merely as powerful as the HD consoles would defeat the purpose. Sure, it would allow their new console to run the same multiplats as the 360 and PS3, but what happens when a year or two later the new Xbox and Playstation come out and are several times more powerful? Nintendo would end up exactly in the same position as they are now.
So I see only three possibilities:
1. The rumors about Nintendo wanting to win back the hardcore gamers and get more 3rd party support are false.
2. Project Cafe will in fact be quite a bit more powerful than the PS3 or 360.
3. Nintendo is really dumb and can't forsee the most obvious outcomes.
The first option doesn't seem very likely because Nintendo has been very successful with the casual gamers this generation and it seems very reasonable that they would want to win back the core gamers to create a more well rounded platform. The third option is absurd because Nintendo have been in this business for a long time and you don't get to that level of success without foresight and being business savvy. That leaves possibility number 2 as the most likely.
Then again, maybe Nintendo is banking on the idea that Microsft and Sony won't release a new console for several more years, in which case releasing an HD Wii might be seen as a valid strategy. For awhile, at least, the Wii HD probably would win back some hardcore gamers. Being able to play Super Mario Galaxy 3 and Modern Warfare 3 on the same console would probably be pretty attractive for a lot of gamers.
Another thing to consider is the fact that both Sony and Microsoft have expressed intentions to keep their current consoles on the market well after their successors have launched. The interesting thing about this is that if Project Cafe does turn out to be merely as powerful as the HD twins it would mean that there would be 3 viable lower-spec platforms in the market alongside the more advanced next gen consoles from Sony and Microsoft. 3 platforms with large install bases would be too much for developers to ignore and they would likely release scaled down versions of their multiplatform games on those 3 platforms. The PS4 and Xbox 3 might get the much nicer looking versions, but at least the Nintendo console wouldn't be missing out on so many multiplatform games as the Wii did this generation.
It's simply not worth it for most developers to totally restructure their games in order for them to function on the much weaker Wii hardware. Especially since 3rd party games haven't sold particularly well on the Wii in most cases. But if there are 3 viable platforms at that level of performance it would clearly be worthwhile for developers to create scaled down versions of next gen multiplats for those platforms.
As a PC gamer I sincerly hope this doesn't happen, since it would mean that games would likely be held back even further. The only hope would be that the PS4 and Xbox 3 were so much more powerful than the curent systems that developers would instead opt to make completely different versions for the lower-powered consoles and therefor hopefully it wouldn't impact the game design of the more advanced versions. But if they try to use the same geometry and level design on all versions, and only use better textures, effects and lighting on the advanced versions then those lower-powered consoles would still be holding the games back.
Nevertheless, even though I hope that scenario doesn't come to pass, there are many reasons that I suspect it may.
This is why I hope that Nintendo are taking this 'win back the hardcore' thing seriously and Project Cafe turns out to be a good jump above the current HD consoles. While it almost certainly won't be as powerful as the next consoles from Sony and Microsoft, I hope that it will at least be significantly more powerful than any console out now.
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