PS5 and next-gen Xbox to be priced under $500 (Analyst prediction)

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airraidjet

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#1 airraidjet
Member since 2006 • 834 Posts

You're probably familiar with some of the predictions from Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter. He's the one who said Xbox One X will not do well in sales, that the PlayStation 5 will release in 2019 or 2020 (Sony said it would be "some time" before we saw that). Before that, he said that the Xbox One and PS4 would be the last 'real' console cycle, which was essentially an echo of his previous statement.

Now, Pachter is predicting the price of the next generation of consoles, the PlayStation 5 and next Xbox.

“I don’t think next gen consoles will be $500… though I guess the right answer is, let’s see what happens with the Xbox One X,” said Pachter in his web show. “If Xbox One X is a phenomenal success, if it sells out, if overall Xbox sales rise to above the current level of 10 million a year, because everyone wants that power, then sure, the next gen can be more expensive. But if the Xbox One X sells 1-2 million a year, out of the 10 million Xbox sold every year, and after a couple of years, they satisfy demand and no one wants it at $500, then no."

http://www.gamezone.com/news/analyst-predicts-ps5-and-next-gen-xbox-to-be-priced-under-500-3461053

PS5 and Next-Gen Xbox Will Probably Not Cost $500, According To Michael Pachter

“There’s just some consumer obstinacy about spending more than $300-400 on a console.”

As games get better looking and more and more technologically sophisticated, the costs of making them continue to rise. For consumers, on the other hand, this leads to not just more intrusive monetization methods in games, but also more expensive hardware needed to run those games to begin with.

This generation saw consoles launch at their highest average price yet, with the PS4 launching at $400 and the Xbox One launching at $500- and now, the Xbox One X has, yet again, come in at the $500 price point. Is this indicative that to hit the level of power necessary to get an appropriate specs and graphics bump that most gamers expect, the next gen of consoles might end up costing $500 or more at launch, too?

According to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, the answer to that is no. Speaking on his web show, Pachter said that $500 consoles have historically never done well, and that is unlikely to change- although he did say that, presuming the Xbox One X was a sufficient, sustained success, he would be proven wrong.

“I don’t think next gen consoles will be $500… though I guess the right answer is, let’s see what happens with the Xbox One X,” he said. “If Xbox One X is a phenomenal success, if it sells out, if overall Xbox sales rise to above the current level of 10 million a year, because everyone wants that power, then sure, the next gen can be more expensive. But if the Xbox One X sells 1-2 million a year, out of the 10 million Xbox sold every year, and after a couple of years, they satisfy demand and no one wants it at $500, then no.

“Look, I don’t have a lot of experience with $500 consoles, but what I have is bad. The PS3 launched at $600 and it flopped. The Xbox One launched at $500, and it didn’t work, they had to drop the Kinect and bring it to under $400 before it sold. There’s just some consumer obstinacy about spending more than $300-400 on a console. I can’t explain why, I spend that much on Halloween candy, I don’t know. Some people, they just say ‘I can buy an HDTV for $500,’ and you can, and in a couple of years, you’ll be able to get 4KTVs at that price. So a console sounds very expensive compared to that- a TV will last you 10 years, and you can use it all the time, and a console lasts you 5 years, and won’t be used that much. So my bias is no, $500 consoles won’t happen.”

He also touched briefly upon when next generation consoles might launch to begin with, stressing again that he doesn’t feel like discrete console generations will ever happen again, while stating that this would be a question to return to after the Xbox One X has had a couple of months on the market.

I agree with him on the former point- I don’t think $500 consoles will ever be mass market or palatable to the mainstream, and so, I do not see them happening. But as for there being no more discrete generations, well… look, as far as I know, I was the earliest advocate for rolling hardware generations on the internet. back when the Scorpio and Pro first leaked, and everyone either doubted the rumors, or dismissed the potential of the idea, I was talking about how they could be the wave of the future for consoles.

But the thing is, while I see Microsoft going with this plan, and I see Nintendo continuing to do their own thing, I don’t see Sony dropping discrete hardware generations, not just yet. I think there will be a full fledged PS5- but like Pachter, I don’t think it will be $500.

https://gamingbolt.com/ps5-and-next-gen-xbox-will-probably-not-cost-500-according-to-michael-pachter

Next gen PlayStation & Xbox consoles will be out in 2020-2021 and both priced at $399.

The eventual specs, once revealed, might seem like another half step, especially in GPU TFlops compared to Xbox One X (I'm thinking next gen console GPUs will hit 12 TFlops) other factors will make them a true generational leap.

No longer will they be shackled by Jaguar CPUs, but instead have some respectable IPC with second generation Zen architecture and decent clock speeds, plus multi-threading. Also, games built with over 10 TFlops of GPU in mind will look a generation beyond PS4/XB1 and still well beyond Pro & X1X, since games will never be made from the floor up to play *only* on these mid-gen iterative systems anyway since the base 2013 systems still have to run them.

Another major factor will be next generation memory, be that HBM 2/3, GDDR6 or even HMC (Hybrid Memory Cube) which is a competing form of 3D stacked memory like HBM. While it's unlikely PS5 and the next gen Xbox will get HMC, the possibility of HBM2/3 shouldn't be discounted.

The technologies coming down the pike will probably be too expensive to put into $400 consoles in 2 years, but in 3-4 years, that's when things should really get interesting in the console space. So I see this generation being another long one, The PS4 Pro and X1X probably means current gen lasts 7-8 years (again) instead of the 5-6 years (2018/2019) that was predicted by EA, Ubisoft and Sony UK at the start of this cycle in late 2013: https://www.videogamer.com/news/ea-expects-to-see-a-new-console-generation-in-5-6-years-time

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deactivated-642321fb121ca

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#2 deactivated-642321fb121ca
Member since 2013 • 7142 Posts

Already have more TF if that's the only measure you want to use.

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deactivated-6092a2d005fba

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#3 deactivated-6092a2d005fba
Member since 2015 • 22663 Posts

@airraidjet: Why do you want to give this idiot any coverage at all?

When I see this guys name this is the only thing that pops in my head

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SolidGame_basic

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#4 SolidGame_basic
Member since 2003 • 44936 Posts

You guys feed into this guy way too much. His job is to speculate, that's it. It's no better than getting someone's opinion on SW.

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airraidjet

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#5 airraidjet
Member since 2006 • 834 Posts

I doubt Pachter is the only one predicting next gen console price points. He's just the most visible.

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ronvalencia

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#6  Edited By ronvalencia
Member since 2008 • 29612 Posts

@airraidjet said:

http://www.gamezone.com/news/analyst-predicts-ps5-and-next-gen-xbox-to-be-priced-under-500-3461053

https://gamingbolt.com/ps5-and-next-gen-xbox-will-probably-not-cost-500-according-to-michael-pachter

Next gen PlayStation & Xbox consoles will be out in 2020-2021 and both priced at $399.

The eventual specs, once revealed, might seem like another half step, especially in GPU TFlops compared to Xbox One X (I'm thinking next gen console GPUs will hit 12 TFlops) other factors will make them a true generational leap.

No longer will they be shackled by Jaguar CPUs, but instead have some respectable IPC with second generation Zen architecture and decent clock speeds, plus multi-threading. Also, games built with over 10 TFlops of GPU in mind will look a generation beyond PS4/XB1 and still well beyond Pro & X1X, since games will never be made from the floor up to play *only* on these mid-gen iterative systems anyway since the base 2013 systems still have to run them.

Another major factor will be next generation memory, be that HBM 2/3, GDDR6 or even HMC (Hybrid Memory Cube) which is a competing form of 3D stacked memory like HBM. While it's unlikely PS5 and the next gen Xbox will get HMC, the possibility of HBM2/3 shouldn't be discounted.

The technologies coming down the pike will probably be too expensive to put into $400 consoles in 2 years, but in 3-4 years, that's when things should really get interesting in the console space. So I see this generation being another long one, The PS4 Pro and X1X probably means current gen lasts 7-8 years (again) instead of the 5-6 years (2018/2019) that was predicted by EA, Ubisoft and Sony UK at the start of this cycle in late 2013: https://www.videogamer.com/news/ea-expects-to-see-a-new-console-generation-in-5-6-years-time

AMD doesn't support Micron's HMC. AMD/SK Hynix (for JEDEC) created HBM standard.

Year 2013, PS4 has GDDR5-5600 and GDDR5-6000 parts.

Year 2016, PS4 Pro has GDDR5-7000 parts.

Year 2017, X1X has GDDR5-6800 parts.

7850/RX-470/RX-570 price segment memory technology moves very slow.

Based on historical DRAM price movements, I expect PS5 and Xbox One Next to be around GDDR5-9000 parts for year 2019/2020.

JEDEC's GDDR5 killed Rambus XDR competitor.

384 bit GDDR5-9000 yields 432 GB/s which is slightly above VEGA 56 level results.

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airraidjet

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#7  Edited By airraidjet
Member since 2006 • 834 Posts

I highly doubt PS5 and next gen Xbox will be using GDDR5.

GDDR5 again? Just, no.

Worst case, GDDR5-X (which would be disappointing). Most likely GDDR6, or possibly HBM.

Edit:

And 432 GB/s would an absolute joke for next-gen consoles that devs will be making games for, well beyond the mid 2020s.

IMO next-gen consoles will need a minimum of 700-900 GB/s memory bandwidth.

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#8 X_CAPCOM_X
Member since 2004 • 9552 Posts

Lol if they are 500 or over, they'll be the last console generation.

Seriously, how successful will they be if they release 500 dollar machines every 3-4 years?

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#9  Edited By GarGx1
Member since 2011 • 10934 Posts

Why do businesses pay this guy a lot of money? All they need to is read a few gaming forums and they'll get the actual information they are looking for.

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stereointegrity

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#10 stereointegrity
Member since 2007 • 12151 Posts

$499 is under $500

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FLOPPAGE_50

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#11 FLOPPAGE_50
Member since 2004 • 4500 Posts

@X_CAPCOM_X said:

Lol if they are 500 or over, they'll be the last console generation.

Seriously, how successful will they be if they release 500 dollar machines every 3-4 years?

I donno, it seems to work for apple

new macbook, new ipads, new phones, new desktops, new watches, new headphones, ect ect

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#12  Edited By me2002
Member since 2002 • 3058 Posts

@FLOPPAGE_50 said:
@X_CAPCOM_X said:

Lol if they are 500 or over, they'll be the last console generation.

Seriously, how successful will they be if they release 500 dollar machines every 3-4 years?

I donno, it seems to work for apple

new macbook, new ipads, new phones, new desktops, new watches, new headphones, ect ect

didn't work for consoles (PS3, X1)

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#13  Edited By stereointegrity
Member since 2007 • 12151 Posts

as much as i want a $399 console. this whole push to 4k and almost all games being open world isnt gonna allow that

if next gen gave us Ryzen or intel cpu's with a 8tf GPU and no less than 16gb of ram (even tho ram prices are skyrocketing) i would pay $499

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#14 X_CAPCOM_X
Member since 2004 • 9552 Posts

@FLOPPAGE_50 said:
@X_CAPCOM_X said:

Lol if they are 500 or over, they'll be the last console generation.

Seriously, how successful will they be if they release 500 dollar machines every 3-4 years?

I donno, it seems to work for apple

new macbook, new ipads, new phones, new desktops, new watches, new headphones, ect ect

yea bro, but Apple has more dedicated fanboys than any die hard Sony or MS fanboy could be... imo. Quite the achievement on their behalf.

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airraidjet

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#15  Edited By airraidjet
Member since 2006 • 834 Posts

8TF certainly isn't enough for next-gen, and even Sony's Mark Cerny said that if they had wanted to render PS4 games at native 4K without checkerboard rendering, they'd need at least 8TF. That should tell you right there that PS5 hardware will be well beyond 8TF.

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#16 mariokart64fan
Member since 2003 • 20828 Posts

@X_CAPCOM_X: 200 or bust next gen