I mean, they'd have to royally screwup. The PS3 at $699 or whatever it was caused me to get a Wii first in that gen, and not get a ps3 until late 2009.
If they just do the same thing as PS4, and make it the best bang for the buck machine at ~$399 then I'm in. That's how they won this gen. No gimmicks, just made a sensibly powerful $399 machine. If they make it backwards compatible with games at PS4 pro settings, then it's pretty much a no brainer to stick with them for the upgrade. Of course they will need some PS5 exclusives to really force people to upgrade. Backwards compatibility can go both ways if there aren't any actual exclusives within the launch window.
I think the only thing MS could do to beat them is really sell their console at a loss. The PS4 was probably equivalent to about a $500 or $600 worth of PC (to build an equivalent machine) on the day it launched. I'd expect PS5 to be about the same. To win, MS would have to provide an even better value. This gen, MS made a weaker machine and priced it $100 more at launch, which is why they were dominated from the start and never recovered.
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