This holiday is going to be important to Nintendo. If Switch doesn't perform very well, their stock and the value of the company will fall back down to Wii U-era levels as analysts and investors believe that Switch was a flash in the pan and won't grow without big changes (even though profit margins are still in-line with expectations).
My guess? Switch is underperforming hardware-wise in Japan right now, where it looks like it'll struggle to beat last year's numbers unless Smash does something great. The US seems to be over-performing right now though, and Europe is unknown. Software-wise, despite the claims of a massive year-long drought, it's over-performing worldwide and will smash through 100 million easily. I'd say it'll be closer to 120 million. Hardware will miss the mark by at least a million though imo.
We will revisit this in February.