@demacabre said:
It begins again.
Tiger, serious question again: In the past months, what data was misread or not taken into account that caused your predictions to miss the mark? What have you changed to get a more accurate analysis?
Well for one last month I ignored the fact PS4 and Xbox One, while they were switching for First place on the charts, PS4 stayed on longer. Considering E3 boost reports I made a assumption, which was incorrect.
This month however MS has been in first place a good time, and not just with one Sku, but 3, and that updated to 4 on the last 2 days. Which has never happened before yet. Also before you say 4, remember the madden bundle is pre-order. (update: Also pre-orders for the new Destiny bundle are also up, ignore the first 3 for hardware actually being sold)
http://www.gamestop.com/browse?nav=28-xu0,1343
Here you will see the same 4 sku's even now second of august (and may stay do to the Madden, Gears, and rare replay) that are ahead of all the PS4 Sku's. For a lot of the time there was 2, then within almost a week there was 3, and within the last 2 days of July there were 4.
The you have walmart: http://www.walmart.com/browse/video-games/video-game-consoles/2636_1040580
Difference is that GS has never been wrong, Everytime Xbox closes the month with a win that has been going on the majority of the time it wins. April is a good example where GS alone helped the Xbox win the month. Just by having a 1 week deal.
GS and Walmart are basically 55-60% rounded up of the market.\
That means that the vast majority of all numbers come from these 2. Target, Toys Are us, Best Buy, Amazon, together are below 35% of console sales. (Btw Target also had an Xbox One win for July)
That's an insane amount of sales that Xbox One will have for July. I don't think there was ever a time the victor was THIS CLEAR but people ignore it just because. GS is the biggest console seller next to Walmart. Walmart has Xbox one number one the whole month, GS had Xbox One number one with multiple SKU's most of the month. Target had it win for the vast majority of the month.
So that's around 70 % of the market that had Xbox one win last month.
There virtually know way the PS4 won, unless in GS and Walmart they were very very close and the other<below 25% comprising of Toys r us, Bestbuy, and Amazon (plus others) made up the difference. but that's highly unlikely.
This is not a prediction because it's inevitable. Going by the charts, Xbox One has won the majority of the console sales market, and even though it lost in the other it still sold in those places as well. So it's not like Xbox One sold zero.
I'll admit I've thrown some stuff out there, but I have no idea why people are ignoring the current situation. And this will continue into august. Whether if it will go beyond that will depend on Fifa and Forza.
Personally I share some of the blame for the ignorance, to many xbox one win threads. Though they were fun.
Again that is Xbox one wining around 70% of the market that sells consoles at retail. GS which is 30% of the market, and Walmart which is ~25% of the market, though I hear reports Walmarts been having an increase yoy, (not sure if true) had the Xbox One win. GS had the Xbox One win with multiple Sku's that grew overtime. Just these stats make it unlikely PS4 won the month. With The effects of June announcements, to the pre-hype and console buying for this months games in august, along with some other side deals, the only thing the PS4 had to counter that was one game GOW III remastered. Which of course does not have the pull a game like TLOU remastered did. I mean only a few days after the last day of July does one of the Xbox's anticipated games come out. And then gears.
It is literally inevitable. Even for august, that's 2 months of nothing that could change the results unless MS makes a severe misstep or the games are reviewed in Ride Retribution territory.
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