Michael Pachter- Switch Likely To Be Second Console Of Choice Over Scorpio For Most; Will Sell 65 Million Units

The Nintendo Switch is out, and it is so far a huge success for Nintendo- but the question is, just how much of one can it be in the long run? With especially the extremely high end Xbox Scorpio launching later this year, does the Switch have much of a future as it gets left behind hopelessly again as far as tech goes?

According to Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter, the answer is yes- the Switch is going to sell, it will sell a lot, because it is essentially a fantastic, high end Nintendo handheld. While it will never likely become the first system of choice for most people, those same people who bought a 3DS to complement their PlayStation or Xbox will now look at picking up a Switch to do the same, and to play high end Nintendo games.

'The Switch works really well- you're essentially playing with a controller and screen right in front of your face,' Pachter said on his web show. 'It isa handheld- the cool thing about it is that your games work on the television as well, but the truth is, it's a handheld, it's a great handheld. So, I actually think the Switch is going to end up selling about as well as the 3DS. It's at a higher price point- but ultimately if it comes down to $149, then ultimately, 3DS style 13 million units a year is possible.

'If you are a PlayStation or an Xbox owner, and you don't own the other one, there's a reason why. And the reason is, you like the first party software better on the console you do own. The standout developer is Nintendo- and even though they aren't significantly more productive at putting out titles than Microsoft or Sony, pretty much all of their games are giant superstars. So Zelda, you just can't compare Gears of War to Zelda, it's just- Zelda is among the highest rated games of all time, if not the highest rated game of all time. So the truth is, I think the Switch will always be the second console of choice.

'And based on where we are in the console cycle, with Sony having announced 54 million PS4s sold, and Microsoft being around 27 million Xbox One units sold - they haven't announced it, but the number is around there, since Sony is apparently outselling Xbox 2:1 - you have 80 million people out there who bought these, with not a lot of overlap. So Nintendo is 80 million households behind. For Nintendo to think they will beat out this lead and become the first console of choice- not so much. They are very highly likely- these 80 million people who bought a PS4 or an Xbox One are people who by definition had $300 or more to spend on a console. And odds are, the next $300 they have? Those go to the Switch.'

In the end, it sounds like the fact that the Scorpio has to compete with the existing Xbox One and PS4 may count against it- whereas the Switch is unique enough in its proposition, with an entirely separate set of games, that everyone looking to buy a second system might be tempted to look into it, to complement the PS4 or Xbox One as their primary system. In the long run, then- it seems as though the Switch is set to do well, and certainly better than the Scorpio- at least according to Pachter.

---

What say you, SW? Is the Switch doomed now that Pachter gave it the kiss of death?

Pachter is pretty much always wrong. He's wrong so much that its safe to bet on the opposite of what he says.

He's pretty much a clickbait analyst.

My money is on it fading into oblivion like the WiiU.

It's probably going to be more affordable, but it comes down to software and people may want the Nintendo 1st party.

Just as much as they wanted it for the WiiU.

True, so Nintendo needs to push games out. I think I only bought 4-5 for my WiiU.

*ignores 3DS, not to mention every Nintendo system before then*

He's already correct in my case. PS4 and NS for me this gen. I won't buy Xbox.

Ehh.. the Switch will fall off in units sold. I expect to see 20 million units sold.

I think Patcher is correct.

Is your money really on it?

I'm betting on Nintendo with real money. I own stock. So far I'm up on that bet. :D

i'm really surprised by his predictions of switch having sales comparable to 3ds. i'm sure it could happen but it just seems a little bullish to me.

the eventual revision + timely price drops + pokemon + splatoon 2 + monster hunter + continuing to grow their brand/ip through mobile is what will get it done, if it's even possible.

one thing is for sure, japan is going to gobble that shit up.

Ignores the fact that this is a home console and the history of Nintendo home console business has and continue to be abysmal.

*ignores the fact it's also a handheld*

*ignores the fact that Nintendo has won 3/6 console generations it has been in*

Wow for the first time, I can honestly say that Mr. Patcher is correct lol. My ps4 pro is for AAA and Multiplayer game and once Switch inventory increases, I'll be picking that up for Nintendo 1st party and Indie games that I can play on the go. I really for sorry for lems and MS, because Scorpio is going to bomb sales wise :(

Will trade my useless Xbone to Scorpio when it launches. Then I have them all bwahahaha.

That is what real gamers do!

If anyone has ever wanted their own personal analyst like Michael Pachter you can get one here for only $6.99USD [Free shipping for Prime members].

@charizard1605: Whelp. Switch is D00mz™, Scorpio to sell 100+million units. Game over man, game over.

And the Switch is now f***ed.

So it'll continue to be a secondary console that people buy for Nintendo exclusives.. According to that logic, the Wii U should have sold 65 million units..

Was this guy ever right about anything?..

Statistically speaking he has to have been correct at least once.

Predicting the failure of the scorpio is pretty easy. Do not really need a over paid guy to tell us that.

The logic is that the devices are inherently different. The Wii U is a home console, and the Switch is a portable one with TV output. He's saying that the Switch will inherit the Nintendo mobile game/console market, which will help push units.

He's kinda right, I'm so positive on Switch being a huge success, indies+ top tier exclusives can guarantee that.

Excellent point.

Patcher stating the obvious as usual. Well apart from the 65 million comment, which I think it has a good chance of getting near if Nintendo push out more games and PR.

The corpse of my long dead dog could have predicted that. Anyone with a brain knows Scorpio is DOA, the machine is irrelevant for 98% of gamers.

The Wii U didn't sell as much due to an unappealing lineup of even exclusive games, an unappealing central hook, lack of marketing and branding confusion, and of course, the fact that the 3DS was a viable alternative for people looking to have a secondary Nintendo machine, cheaper and with better Nintendo exclusives.

None of that applies to the Switch.

@sonic_spark: I totally understand that.. And the Wii U, Kinect, and Move were supposed to inherit the Wii's casual market.. As we know now, these plans don't always work out..

The fact remains that the mobile market for dedicated gaming hardware is shrinking thanks to smartphones.. The prediction that everyone is going to run out and spend $300 in order to carry around an extra gaming device on the go is quite the stretch.. And don't get me wrong, I enjoy being able to continue playing my Xbox console games from my laptop when I'm away from home so I fully appreciate the Switch's appeal of being able to continue playing full console level games without being tethered to your living room.. But at this point, it's still a novelty rather than a necessity..

A necessity for the Switch should have been removing any roadblocks for 3rd party developers to put their latest and greatest games on the console alongside Mario/Zelda/Metroid.. You want to sell 65 million consoles, that's a sure fire way to do so.. Not, once again, making your console nearly a generation behind in terms of horsepower when gaming is moving towards 4K, putting your games on cartridges when the industry is moving towards digital, and basing your online service on a smartphone app when Xbox Live and PSN are pushing sharing, streaming, and connectivity like never before..

If Patcher and others think being a secondary console and relying on Zelda is the way towards 65 million sold, that's great.. I hope they're right because I'll always be a Nintendo fan at heart.. I also would hope that Nintendo would just simply make a console that people would actually consider as their PRIMARY purchase rather than a side dish..

@charizard1605: True.. Yet the core of my statement rings true.. The Switch will still, at best, be a secondary console to the PS4 or XB1 and will depend on Nintendo 1st party.. The same song we've heard from their previous offering.. The fact that it doubles as a handheld during an era when smartphones and tablets are dominating the mobile gaming market doesn't do much to sway my view on the subject..

I could be wrong and I hope I am.. The more competition the better..

@Antwan3K: The point is, Nintendo handhelds always sell- barring the DS, the Gameboy, Gameboy Color, Gameboy Advance, and 3DS have each had a core audience of at least 60 million people- it doesn't matter when they came out, they always sold at least that much. The one exception to this was the DS, which sold 150 million on the back of an expanded casual audience that eventually went on to smartphones and tablets as you note.

The Switch doubling as a handheld, as well as being the only place to play Nintendo games (with no cheaper alternatives), as well as having multiple mainstream appealing Nintendo games (such as Zelda, as well as the upcoming Mario game, plus Splatoon, Kart, Smash, and a new Pokemon game) should make it a more valuable and appealing prospect than the Wii U, which had a confused message and a lineup consisting mostly of 2D platformers (even if they were Nintendo games), not to mention very little in the way of branding and advertising, leading to very poor awareness. The Switch already addresses most of those problems.

Nintendo is pulling out all the stops for this console its not gonna fade away like the wiiU

it looks new it looks fresh its got 10/10 zelda a mario kart deluxe on the way with battle mode this shiz is real patcher is a genius

The second Nintendo sees the Switch struggle, they will make a bundle without the docking station and be right back in the driver's seat with the thing. Bonus money for people that thought they were just going to get a cheap Switch but turn back around to buy the dock separately.

There is literally no way the Switch can fail short of terrible games, a bad manufacturing defect, and if the online gets pwned to death. Nintendo's final form is a console/handheld hybrid that brings all of their AAAA developer houses under one roof for a single cause.

@Shewgenja: Really, there is no way the Switch can fail, period. We're all forgetting one very important reason, summarized by one word, why it will not

POKÉMON

Dat AAAA development pipeline dawg. Nintendo can haz. Hell, they had me at Day One this time.

@charizard1605: Do you think 60 million people are going to buy the Switch as a dedicated handheld?.. One that's (when compared to a 3DS) relatively expensive, has poor battery life, is too large to fit in your pocket, lacks the library, and probably not something you want to buy for you kid to carry around at school?..

Let's not get it twisted, the Switch can double as a handheld but it is NOT a dedicated handheld.. In the absence of a 3DS, those customers may just as likely switch to gaming on their smartphones more and just not buy anything at all..

I understand your points, but I'm personally not convinced.. If you are, best of luck sir. I hope I'm wrong..

It's probably going to outsell the WiiU's WW LTD just in Japan a few years from now.

• The 3DS launched at $250, and has sold at a $200 price point for the bulk of its life (including right now). The Switch is more expensive, but launches with the highly appealing option of being able to be played as a home console. For most people, psychologically, they are getting two systems for the price of one at $300. Clearly, it is not considered overpriced
• Switch battery life at 3-6 hours is the exact same as the battery life for the 3DS and Vita. If it was not an issue then, it is not an issue now
• The highest selling 3DS models are 3DS XL, New 3DS XL, and 2DS- the one thing they all share in common is that none of them are pocketable- and in fact, in terms of value, a 2DS, or an open (New)/3DS XL are roughly as big as a Switch. None of which is to point out the simple fact that people carry Kindles with them (as one example) all the time- a large, dedicated non pocketable portable device. People are not averse to carrying a dedicated portable device in their backpack- it's the pocket where the battle is lost to smartphones
• The 3DS sales were not made to people who game on smartphones (and indeed, the failure of multiple 'casual' games on the system such as Brain Age and Nintendogs should be enough to reinforce that by itself)- they were made for people who either a) want to play Nintendo games (of which the 3DS had the most and the best), especially to complement their PlayStation or Xbox, and/or b) want a portable for more serious gaming than smartphones can provide. The 3DS has sold 65 million on the back of this appeal, and will probably be north of 70 million by the time it winds down

The one interesting point you did have was that the Switch will not be something that parents give to their kids to take to school- I agree with that. However, I think that the Switch's added appeal of in built local multiplayer (you don't need to buy your kids a 3DS each so they can play Mario Kart together, one system is enough now) is enough to counter that.

65 million isn't outside the realm of possibility, assuming Nintendo can translate its 3DS users to the new system, but that figure is highly ambitious. $300 is still way higher than the price point at which successful handhelds have been sold and the more powerful kindred with more support enjoy the price advantage.

I am disappointed to see that he doesn't address the impact mobile will have on Switch's target demographic. I also disagree with him that Nintendo's games are superstars. Outside of Zelda, Mario, and Pokémon, Nintendo's franchises are well to do but they don't have the same pull on the gaming audience as third party games that Xbox and PS4 will receive (for example, Destiny 2 and Red Dead Redemption 2). Nintendo only has Nintendo games and will be hard pressed to attract more.

let's not forget splatoon 2 and the inevitable monster hunter release. the switch, at least in japan, is going to sell very well. mk is going to be a decent boost as well.

Unless the Switch will also have monster games like CoD, GTA, RDR, Madden, Destiny, Battlefield, etc. and I'm talking about the full versions of those games not some Switch downgraded versions, it will always be a secondary/tertiary console of choice for most console consumers. Patcher don't have to tell you this, history already did and will continue to do so.

How much did MS pay him to say this? Heartless bastards wont rest until Nintendo is buried

@charizard1605: Still more expensive, you're not going to get 6 hours playing AAA console games but I'll concede this point, the 3DS is still way smaller/portable, smartphones are factually taking over the mobile gaming market, and kids love sharing right?..

We can go around and around but the Switch isn't a dedicated handheld and therefore isn't guaranteed to even approach selling 60 million based on 3DS sales.. It's not even being marketed as a handheld judging from the commercials I've seen.. And none of that changes the fact that we're talking about a secondary console choice hinging on 1st party offerings from studios that aren't known for putting out steady content.. Nothing is drastically new in this equation other than the Wii U gamepad is truly mobile now.. 65 million sold!!.. I think Patcher is off on this one, as usual..

See, you can argue that it isn't a dedicated handheld, but the fact remains that it is- it just happens to also have a TV out. The marketing for the device, except for for 1, 2, Switch, is all centered around you being able to take your console game with you on the go- that is, marketing for a handheld. You are arguing that smartphones have taken over mobile gaming- this is not a point I have even contested, so I don't know why you brought it up again at all. You are talking about the variable battery life- which was also true for Vita and 3DS. You are talking about Nintendo being inconsistent with their output- Nintendo on average puts out 15 games every year (not counting smaller digital releases), they just happen to be spread across two platforms, which is no longer going to be the case with the Switch. Wherein lies the Switch's biggest advantage, which you are ignoring.

See, you started by making very reasonable points, that I thought could be engaged in actual discussion- but when I am attempting to take you up on those points, you're going back to 'no, but this isn't true because I said so,' ignoring the points I am raising with evidence and/or reasoning entirely (and also being grossly reductionist in your description of the Switch as 'a Wii U Gamepad, but now it's mobile'). You're right, we're going around and around on this, this isn't an actual discussion anymore.

Super Smash Bros.? Mario Kart? Animal Crossing? Hell, even Splatoon, which miraculously remained the one game to actually manage to create a spike in Wii U sales?

I feel like you are ignoring nuances to make a broader point.

Take your beef up with Nintendo because this has been officially announced as their home console. Thats how they marketing and thats the reason it will fail.

Nintendo has been irrelevant in the home console arena for decades. Even with the Wii success. But, hey lets pretend that Nintendo has been the top player for the past decade because they ONCE were when games were 2D.

I almost miss the times when you had actual concrete facts that were hard to counter as the basis of your posts. Almost.