Michael Pachter: If I had to bet, PS5 would come out in 2020

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Avatar image for airraidjet
#1 Posted by airraidjet (774 posts) -

In a podcast with Josiah Renaudin's "The 1099," Pachter muses that he thinks Sony won't release the PS5 until Sony's sales of the PS4 slows down.

"I think that's exactly when you'll see one (PS5) 2019 or 2020, and if I had to bet, it's 2020. Sony's making so much money with the PS4 that I think they'll continue to milk it as long as they can milk it. And I think the natural extension of that is the PS4 Pro becomes the default PS4, and they just knock that price down to $250 when they can and they keep selling it -- a ton of those. The PS5 is probably going to be their real 4K device, and so it just feels to me that they're not going to launch the PS5 until sales momentum for the PS4 slows, and it just hasn't. So you certainly get through 2017, 2018, and I just don't see it slowing in 2018 which should prop them to launch something in 2019. If it slows in 2019, they're probably launching in 2020."

You can hear the quote around the 47:70 mark in the podcast.

http://www.psu.com/news/34227/ps5-release-date-in-2020-says-michael-pachter

https://soundcloud.com/the1099/episode-108-michael-pachter-on-xbox-one-x-sales-the-switchs-future-and-console-exclusives

So 2018 or 2021, cause Pach is always wrong.

Avatar image for SecretPolice
#2 Edited by SecretPolice (32707 posts) -

2021 it is then.

But first Phony will milk the cows some more in 2019 with the PS Bore Poo, Poo. lol :P

Avatar image for AzatiS
#3 Edited by AzatiS (14237 posts) -

2020 makes sense to me.

By then the PS4 family will be 6 years old and will be 3 years after first PS4 upgrade with PRO when PRO released 3 years after original. With that in mind it makes sense for 2020 or 2021 max to have a next product either be called PS4 PRO 2 ( lol ) or PS5.

Avatar image for davillain-
#4 Posted by DaVillain- (28400 posts) -

Year of PS5 release 2020 sounds about right if you ask me. If you think about it, PS4 was release in 2013, (U.S) by the time we reach 2020, it'll be 7 years since the release of PS5 and let's face it. Last-gen lasted so freaking long, it took almost a decades to move on to next-gen so let's just hope we don't half to wait another 8-9 years to move on.

And for once, I agree with Michael Pachter, I bet we may hear Sony announcing PS5 at E3 2019 and release PS5 in 2020 sounds like something I can see happening.

Avatar image for lrdfancypants
#5 Posted by lrdfancypants (3850 posts) -

The X1X2 will smash the PS5 over the head with 8k multiplats.

Avatar image for Nike_Air
#6 Posted by Nike_Air (19079 posts) -

I'd bet 2019 at this point if I had to. 6 years (3 for Pro) between consoles feels right. And I can't see Guerrilla Games , Polyphony , Santa Monica , Bend , etc making another PS4 game this gen.

I don't see Sony just resting on their laurels , with an ability to poop out a console on command if PS4 sales slow. Consoles take years to develop. They have to have some foresight. The PS5 is already being designed. Heavy rumors and a codename for PS5 are going to leak later next year. Sony's going to repeat what they did in 2013 in 2019. Announce event (with HDZ 2 exclusive) early 2019 ,a release holiday 2019. People are going to go nuts.

Avatar image for ArchoNils2
#7 Posted by ArchoNils2 (9754 posts) -

I really hope it's 2018 and not 2021. Pretty sure it isn't 2019 or 2020 if Pachter predicts it then xD

Avatar image for lamprey263
#8 Edited by lamprey263 (35021 posts) -

they'll make the jump whenever the PS4's console/game sales begin to dip for whatever reason

Avatar image for scatteh316
#9 Posted by scatteh316 (7783 posts) -

@lrdfancypants said:

The X1X2 will smash the PS5 over the head with 8k multiplats.

But PS5 will be protected with it's super strong helmet of exclusives.

Avatar image for Ant_17
#10 Posted by Ant_17 (7656 posts) -

Pachter is 100% wrong all the time, every time so i guess it will be after 2020.

Avatar image for Archangel3371
#11 Posted by Archangel3371 (23864 posts) -

I think that it will launch in 2019.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#12 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

Fall 2019 without a doubt, Sony is switching to 3 year hardware refresh cycles. The PS4, PS4 Pro set up will continue on. PS4 28nm Fall 2013, PS4 Pro 16nm Fall 2016 and PS5 7nm Fall 2019. The Final 3 Big Exclusives in 2019 for PlayStation 4 will be Death Stranding, The Last Of Us 2 and i heard Sucker Punches new ip is a melee combat cyberpunk game. Also Fall 2019 is PlayStations 25th Anniversary.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#13 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

Without a doubt it will Fall 2019.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#14 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@AzatiS: Fall 2019 it is that makes it 6 years exactly as that's PlayStations 25th Anniversary that Fall also. Sony is switching to 3 year hardware refresh cycles. The PS4, PS4 Pro set up will continue on. PS4 28nm Fall 2013, PS4 Pro 16nm Fall 2016 and PS5 7nm Fall 2019.

Avatar image for Random_Matt
#15 Edited by Random_Matt (2774 posts) -

@ArchoNils2 said:

I really hope it's 2018 and not 2021. Pretty sure it isn't 2019 or 2020 if Pachter predicts it then xD

Yep, five years is enough.

Seven years, go and **** yourself.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#16 Posted by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@scatteh316: That is for sure PlayStation has the Sales, Fanbase and First Party Exclusives on Lockdown. PS5 will launch Fall 2019 and a new Xbox will launch Fall 2020. Sony and Microsoft are switching to 3 year hardware refresh cycles.

Avatar image for joshrmeyer
#17 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@airraidjet: He was preaching 2019 before. That's still where my money is on. The Pros getting to it's one year mark and has sold a few million. To me, it feels too late now to upgrade my PS4 (wasn't going to anyways) since the ps5 is only years away. 7 years for the 60+ million regular PS4 owners is too long to wait for a next gen system.

Avatar image for joshrmeyer
#18 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@Eddie619: Yup, it only makes sense. The 3 year system is for a few suckers that want the best for the time, or to attract new PS owners who may have waited to get a PS. Thrifty shoppers will buy the ps5, skip the ps5 Pro, and get the ps6 6 years later. That's normally about the time people upgrade their tv also.

Avatar image for GameboyTroy
#19 Posted by GameboyTroy (8739 posts) -

2020 sounds right, or it could happen in 2021. Think of the development costs and how long it takes for games to be made.

Avatar image for joshrmeyer
#20 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@SecretPolice: MS will be on the other teat milking the suckers with "The most powerful uncompromised true 4k with the best quality pixels and equal to a $1500 high-end PC" Xbox One. Lots of milk mustaches incoming.

Avatar image for appariti0n
#21 Posted by appariti0n (2310 posts) -

So he predicts Sony will milk the ps4 until it looks more profitable to release a new console.

Wow, this guy is psychic or something.

Avatar image for joshrmeyer
#22 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@AzatiS: Your math is wrong.. PS4 released in 2013. Pro released exactly 3 years later in 2016. Ps5 will release exactly 3 years later than Pro in 2019.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#23 Posted by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@Random_Matt: No chance Fall 2018 The tech isnโ€™t there and Sony said no smartphone cycles which is 2 years. Fall 2019 is an Executive Master Lock. ๐Ÿ˜‰

Avatar image for joshrmeyer
#24 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@davillain-: Last gen for PlayStation last 7 years, which like you said was way too long. Why would you expect this gen to last 7 years. Last gen was the ONLY gen ever to last 7 years. Most lasting 5-6 years. A 6 year gen cycle makes sense with a midgen optional upgrade inbetween. I don't care much for midgen, but so far the Pro hasn't messed up my PS4 gaming experience at all.

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#25 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@lrdfancypants: It'll be called X1X-II... FF style!

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#26 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@GameboyTroy: 2021?? An 8 year gen cycle on x86 arch??? Do you have any idea how powerful PCs will be by then??? No way they wait that long. 2019.

Avatar image for AzatiS
#27 Edited by AzatiS (14237 posts) -

@joshrmeyer said:

@AzatiS: Your math is wrong.. PS4 released in 2013. Pro released exactly 3 years later in 2016. Ps5 will release exactly 3 years later than Pro in 2019.

Well was almost 2014 , in fact in a specific region it did release in 2014.

But yeah , if im wrong then 2019 that is though i doubt it will if PS4 sells well as well because many games are coming for PS4 in 2018 and i bet that will be the case for 2019.

Avatar image for drummerdave9099
#29 Posted by drummerdave9099 (3445 posts) -

Makes sense- Last of Us 2 releases 2019, PS5 2020, Last of Us 2 Remaster early 2021 haha

Avatar image for jumpaction
#30 Posted by JumpAction (5735 posts) -

That would be interesting. I wonder what the focus of PS5 will be? For example, I wonder if they're hoping to make 4K a standard across all games. It will be certainly interesting to see what they are doing with it.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#31 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@drummerdave9099: PS5 Fall 2019 it is, just like The Last Of Us in 2013 then PS4 Fall 2013, Same exact situation with The Last Of Us 2 in 2019 then PS5 Fall 2019.

Avatar image for airraidjet
#32 Posted by airraidjet (774 posts) -

@Eddie619 said:

Fall 2019 without a doubt, Sony is switching to 3 year hardware refresh cycles. The PS4, PS4 Pro set up will continue on. PS4 28nm Fall 2013, PS4 Pro 16nm Fall 2016 and PS5 7nm Fall 2019.

Also, PS5 Pro on 5nm, Fall 2022.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#33 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@airraidjet: PS5 Pro 3/5nm Fall 2022 for sure. I thought it was too early too add that good call. ๐Ÿ˜‰

https://www.electronicsweekly.com/news/business/tsmc-plans-35nm-fab-2022-2016-12/

Avatar image for drlostrib
#34 Posted by DrLostRib (3652 posts) -

I'm fine with that

Avatar image for FinalFighters
#35 Posted by FinalFighters (2782 posts) -

the longer the better. i want the best hardware up in that bitch.

Avatar image for joshrmeyer
#36 Posted by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@AzatiS: I know it's close to 2014, but they normally release consoles before the holidays(Nintendo didn't for some reason). Xbox One, PS4, Xbox One S, PS4 Pro, Xbox One X all or ones about to be, released right before the holidays. If they wait until 2020, it'll be a full year wait to release the console (Nov 2019 to Nov 2020). Which would add another year to this gen. I don't see it happening. Nov 2019.

Avatar image for Vatusus
#37 Edited by Vatusus (8421 posts) -

That guy still justify "news"?!

I thought that by this time he had become irrelevant given how many times he has been wrong...

Avatar image for AzatiS
#38 Posted by AzatiS (14237 posts) -

@joshrmeyer said:

@AzatiS: I know it's close to 2014, but they normally release consoles before the holidays(Nintendo didn't for some reason). Xbox One, PS4, Xbox One S, PS4 Pro, Xbox One X all or ones about to be, released right before the holidays. If they wait until 2020, it'll be a full year wait to release the console (Nov 2019 to Nov 2020). Which would add another year to this gen. I don't see it happening. Nov 2019.

Oh i see , nice point

Avatar image for mariokart64fan
#39 Posted by mariokart64fan (20694 posts) -

Yay so can't wait to play remasters of gen 8 game's lol no thanks i highly doubt they will just rush ps5 w psvr and pro just released three years (if 2019)

Avatar image for joshrmeyer
#40 Edited by JoshRMeyer (9218 posts) -

@AzatiS: Also, you're right... Lots of games releasing next year that were first show 2-3 years ago. This next E3 in 2018 will show off teasers for PS exclusives. Rumors have it that the Last of Us and Death Stranding will be ps5 launch titles(not exclusive). And maybe some others that will be shown at E3 2018. I highly doubt we'll see too many more PS4 exclusives this time. And I don't think we'll see any ps5 exclusives until E3 2019. I'm sure Sony is anticipating the sales of PS4 to drop significantly after 2018. And I'm sure they have the ps5 in development in anticipation for the drop in sales. If PS4 is still selling great in 2019, they may wait to reveal the ps5. I just don't think it'll continue selling great after the exclusives release next year. By the end of 2019, people will be expecting the ps5 either at that time or the following year, which will also make sales drop. A 1.8tflop GPU and a wimpy CPU can only last so long. And if people feel like me(sales numbers show it), they will skip the Pro and buy the ps5. In summary, Sony really has no chose but to release the ps5 in fall/winter of 2019 unless they want a dead zone in sales like what's happened with Xbox this year. If MS wouldn't of revealed the Scorpio so early, I believe the S would have sold a ton more units than it did. They could have waited until 3-4 months before the release to reveal it. Dumb business move. Going back to Sony, we all know ps5 is coming and again, a lot of us are skipping the Pro(I'd estimate 90% of current PS4 owners won't buy the Pro) because we know ps5 is coming... Whether it's next year, 2019, or 2020. We have been programmed to buy a console and get a good 5-6 years out of it. The mid gen crap may continue, or Sony may just shorten the gen to 5 years like the older consoles had. Judging by Pro sales, I'm gonna guess they may opt out of the mid gen upgrade next time around. I'm sure they're watching how the X sells within the next few years before making that decision too. Another prediction... After X releases this Nov, MS will reveal their next gen console at E3 2019 trying to crush ps5s hype, again. X sales will decrease dramatically after the reveal or go super cheap like the S model is now. Another bad business move by them.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#41 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@joshrmeyer: Sony will stick with the PS4, Pro set up every 3 years because they know and even said after 3 years some of their Fanbase switch to PC for better Hardware. Sony had PS4 Pro in mind before PS4 launched and I do believe PS4 Pro is selling enough to continue the Pro model.

https://semiaccurate.com/2013/10/18/sony-takes-radically-different-approach-ps4-lifecycle/

Avatar image for Jebus213
#42 Edited by Jebus213 (10013 posts) -

Idk, I'm expecting another long generation.

Avatar image for Phazevariance
#43 Posted by Phazevariance (12275 posts) -

Sony

2013 -> PS4 release

2016 -> PS4 Pro release (mere 3 years after PS4, was too early)

2020 -> PS5 release (7 years after PS4, seems right)

MS

2013 -> XBOne release

2017 -> XBOX release (4 years after XBOne)

2021 -> Expect XBOX2 (4 years after XBOX)

MS might continue the 4 year upgrade path, while sony is a little all over the place.

Avatar image for xhawk27
#44 Posted by xhawk27 (10349 posts) -

The Fact is that it would be at least $599 to make a complete next gen system using ryzen and Vega even in 2019.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#45 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@xhawk27: Vega is a big chip and has no purpose at all being in a Console.

Avatar image for xhawk27
#46 Posted by xhawk27 (10349 posts) -

@Eddie619 said:

@xhawk27: Vega is a big chip and has no purpose at all being in a Console.

No I mean the APU version.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#47 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@xhawk27: It doesn't matter Sony would wait for 7nm and that would be Navi.

Avatar image for Eddie619
#48 Edited by Eddie619 (1249 posts) -

@xhawk27: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/57845/playstation-5-feature-full-discrete-gpu-apu/index.html

Avatar image for xhawk27
#49 Posted by xhawk27 (10349 posts) -

@Eddie619 said:

@xhawk27: It doesn't matter Sony would wait for 7nm and that would be Navi.

That isn't coming to 2019 if it doesn't get a delay.

Avatar image for quadknight
#50 Edited by QuadKnight (10088 posts) -

For once I agree with him on this one.