It's up to you how you want to define "win". To me, it could be a nice wide margin of sales over competition like a 40m xbox vs 100m PS4s but that's world wide estimates. PS4 owns this generation.
I'm guessing it's probably a "yes" because of the Lockhart and Halo Infinite. A gamble where more people might not mind 1080p/2K resolutions just how there are probably way more base/s xbox ones than One X sold within the 40-50m estimates.
MS probably won't shoot themselves in the foot either with the used game fiasco, out of the gate.
This is just speculation ofc.