I think they're being conservative. TBH.
He predicts that the OLED Model will sell around five million units by the end of 2021, after which it will "slowly replace the current flagship [model]" over the course of 2022. Ampere Analysis expects this to contribute to an increase in sales for the Switch family of devices, which it expects to sell more than 155 million units by the end of 2025. If Nintendo achieves this, it would make Switch the biggest selling console of all time, just ahead of the PS2's lifetime sales and a full million ahead of the DS family, Nintendo's current record holder.
Having already shared our own thoughts, we reached out to various analysts to get their thoughts on each new machine and the strategies behind them, and those that were able to comment agreed on one thing: despite the similar form factor, the two devices are not in direct competition.
"[Steam Deck appeals to] a sizeable audience when you include lapsed Steam users that might be re-invigorated by this new product"
Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analysis
"The Steam Deck is for hardcore Steam users who want to access their library on the go, and possibly for the PC game first-timer who wants be on Steam but with the convenience that only consoles provide," Kantan Games' CEO and founder Dr Serkan Toto explains.
In terms of their commercial prospects, Toto believes there "can be no doubt" that the Switch OLED will shift more units, given that it is the more mainstream of the two products. But he adds: "This is not to say the Steam Deck will flop -- it won't -- but the audience sizes both companies look at are vastly different."
Ampere Analysis' head of games research Piers Harding-Rolls agrees, adding that he doesn't even expect the Steam Deck to appeal to many non-Steam games.
"I see this less as a device to reach entirely new audiences and rather a device that enables a new way to play for existing, or lapsed, Steam gamers. Judging by the leaked pre-order numbers, stock availability this year will be small -- far smaller than Switch OLED, for example