Does PS4 have a chance at beating PS2 lifetimes sales (158 million)?

  • 55 results
  • 1
  • 2
Avatar image for SolidGame_basic
Posted by SolidGame_basic (24161 posts) 5 months, 8 days ago

Poll: Does PS4 have a chance at beating PS2 lifetimes sales (158 million)? (73 votes)

It will sell 100 million units 4%
It will sell 110 million units 26%
It will sell 120 million units 40%
It will sell 130 million units 15%
It will sell 140 million units 5%
It will sell 150 million units 0%
It will sell 160 million units 10%

Last time I asked this question, SW chose 100 million units as the most popular answer. I think it's pretty clear that the PS4 will smash 100 million units at this point. But how far will it go? Here's a little bit of history. The console launched in 2000, and continued to sell over a decade later. The PS4 is selling at an amazing rate for its first 5 years. Based on the data below, it is on pace and perhaps just about ahead of the PS2. It will be interesting to see if sales come to a grinding halt when the PS5 comes out. What do you think, SW? Can PS4 reach PS2 lifetime sales?

Cumulative shipment totals (millions)

DateAsia
(including Japan)
North AmericaEuropeWorldwide
March 31, 2000[2]1.41N/AN/A1.41
March 31, 2001[2]4.753.012.8510.61
March 31, 2002[2]9.6510.598.4428.68
March 31, 2003[2]12.722.2116.2951.20
March 31, 2004[2]16.9829.5324.7971.3
March 31, 2005[2]20.7135.3531.4187.47
March 2006[2]23.2741.8238.6103.69
March 2007[2]25.4247.6844.79117.89
March 2008[2]354948132
March 2009[2]405050140
March 2010[2]445152147
March 2011[2]46.552.554153
March 2012[2]4853.555156.5
January 2013[2]48.7553.6555.28158
Avatar image for getyeryayasout
#1 Posted by getyeryayasout (12320 posts) -

I just don't see it happening. I don't think the PS4 will have as long of a tail. Who know's though, if the price gets low enough anything is possible.

Avatar image for xantufrog
#2 Edited by xantufrog (11337 posts) -

I don't see it happening. A million is a lot. The difference between 91 (where we are now) and 158 is astronomical. I could see it hitting 110, *maybe* 120 (my vote). But if the PS5 is BC (and it better be) then I think the PS4 sales are going to slow dramatically

Avatar image for Nonstop-Madness
#3 Edited by Nonstop-Madness (10058 posts) -

I don't see it hitting that number unless there's a significant "relaunch".

Ex.

- They perhaps shrink the die (somehow), and make it discless etc. so that they hit $100-150.

- They price PS NOW better, and maybe deliver some PS5 games on it (crossplay with PS5)

- Ramp up PSN+ "free games"; start giving out games like Uncharted 4 etc.

- Ramp up production of VR games; continue to lower the cost of PSVR.

etc.

Avatar image for Archangel3371
#4 Posted by Archangel3371 (27894 posts) -

I really doubt it myself. I think they’ll get around 120 million give or take.

Avatar image for ellos
#5 Edited by ellos (2023 posts) -

Its not happening, sales are going down and ps5 is right around the corner. Japan has already moved on where ps2 enjoyed more success there. Its not going to have enough years.

Avatar image for vfighter
#6 Posted by VFighter (4886 posts) -

@ellos: PST isnt just around the corner, but I agree it won't surpass the ps2. 120 million tops is my guess.

Avatar image for eyeboonseyebrow
#7 Posted by EyeBoonsEyebrow (280 posts) -

I'm thinking it will end up somewhere between 115 and 120 million.

Avatar image for ellos
#8 Posted by ellos (2023 posts) -

@vfighter said:

@ellos: PST isnt just around the corner, but I agree it won't surpass the ps2. 120 million tops is my guess.

It really looks like 2020 for the new consoles.

Avatar image for MonsieurX
#9 Posted by MonsieurX (39054 posts) -

Unless they heavily drop the price like they did with the PS2, doubt it

Avatar image for Shewgenja
#10 Posted by Shewgenja (21427 posts) -

I don't believe the hardware in the PS4 is as scalable as the PS2, which is a major reason why the price isn't very elastic. Sony's strategy seems to center more on keeping the hardware profitable rather than comping anything back via software. I speculate this is a part of a larger 1-2 punch with the PS5 being the right after following a buoyant PS4.

Avatar image for fedor
#11 Posted by Fedor (4902 posts) -

Nope, went with 120 mill. Can't see it having the legs ps2 did.

Avatar image for vaidream45
#12 Posted by Vaidream45 (1882 posts) -

Yeah I don’t think it’s possible. Only reason is that the PS2 still sold massive amounts after the PS3 released and I just don’t see that happening once the PS5 hits. Still these are amazing numbers for thr PS4.

Avatar image for ajstyles
#13 Edited by AJStyles (816 posts) -

PS4 is on track to hit 140 million Lifetime sales at the lowest. It will be pretty damn close.

Avatar image for x_karen_x
#14 Posted by X_Karen_x (500 posts) -

PS4 is amazingly popular. Do we think sony will sell ps5 for 700 euros?

Avatar image for npiet1
#15 Posted by npiet1 (2231 posts) -

Nah. The PS2 price went down to $100 for the end of its life. So everyone could afford it. It was also a very cheap DVD player. DVD players at the time was the same price as the PS2, so it made sense to buy one instead of a DVD player. I knew a few people who bought it solely for that reason and not games. PS4 has nothing to offer to non gamers that they cant get cheaper.

Avatar image for Jag85
#16 Edited by Jag85 (13478 posts) -

The PS4 hasn't outpaced the PS2. If you start counting from the date of the PS2's international release in late 2000, then the PS2 was ahead of the PS4 at this point in its life cycle. The PS4 would have to sell a ton of consoles after the PS5 releases if it wants to catch the PS2.

Avatar image for techhog89
#17 Posted by Techhog89 (3722 posts) -

@Jag85: Post your math please.

Avatar image for SecretPolice
#18 Posted by SecretPolice (35246 posts) -

Not unless, like the PS Poo, PS Bore's develop DRE and everyone needs to rebuy at least 3 of them because of it. :P

Avatar image for PAL360
#19 Posted by PAL360 (29571 posts) -

It deserves to sell more, but i doubt. My guess is 135 million consoles total.

Avatar image for BenjaminBanklin
#20 Posted by BenjaminBanklin (4571 posts) -

Yeah, I'm in the 120 category. Apparently this is a console that they just couldn't quite price down enough and still be profitable for them. I guess I can't blame them for not wanting to take on a loss on it while things are going well enough.

Avatar image for davillain-
#21 Edited by DaVillain- (36455 posts) -

LOL no chance in hell.

Voted: It will sell 110 million units.

Avatar image for Planeforger
#22 Posted by Planeforger (18020 posts) -

Sony would need a heavy price drop and another 3-5 years of solid PS4 game releases to hit that number.

I don't see it happening. The PS4 lineup hit a few droughts in 2018, and is almost completely dried up for the next few years.

I doubt Sony will continue pushing the PS4 past 2020 - that would make much less business sense then simply launching the next console.

Avatar image for PAL360
#23 Edited by PAL360 (29571 posts) -

@davillain- said:

LOL no chance in hell.

Voted: It will sell 110 million units.

To sell a total of 110 million units PS4 would have to stop selling at all early next year. Why would that happen?

Avatar image for davillain-
#24 Posted by DaVillain- (36455 posts) -

@PAL360 said:
@davillain- said:

LOL no chance in hell.

Voted: It will sell 110 million units.

To sell a total of 110 million units PS4 would have to stop selling at all by this time next year. Why would that happen?

Assuming PS5 does release in 2020 and offers BC PS4 games, I see no reasons to go out and buy PS4 when PS5 does everything. (I'm just speculating this)

Avatar image for PAL360
#25 Posted by PAL360 (29571 posts) -

@davillain- said:
@PAL360 said:
@davillain- said:

LOL no chance in hell.

Voted: It will sell 110 million units.

To sell a total of 110 million units PS4 would have to stop selling at all by this time next year. Why would that happen?

Assuming PS5 does release in 2020 and offers BC PS4 games, I see no reasons to go out and buy PS4 when PS5 does everything. (I'm just speculating this)

I agree, but at this rate, in fall 2020 PS4 would be well above that. And even with a fully bc PS5, we all know that a super cheap PS4 will still sell a few millions for 2 or so years.

Avatar image for valgaav_219
#26 Posted by Valgaav_219 (2364 posts) -

Everyone won't be able to afford a PS5 at launch. There are also those(like myself)who choose not to be early adopters to let the library build and the price drop. I didn't get a PS4 until early 2017. I was good with my PS3 and my Vita. I predict it'll hit about 130 million, though

Avatar image for lebanese_boy
#27 Posted by lebanese_boy (15052 posts) -

I expect the PS4 to sell somewhere between 110 and 120 million units. It definitely isn't going anywhere near PS2 numbers.

Avatar image for mandzilla
#28 Posted by Mandzilla (4084 posts) -

I think it will do better than the PS1, but not quite as well as the PS2 unless they just start giving them away.

Avatar image for speedytimsi
#29 Posted by speedytimsi (954 posts) -

PS2 was around for a long time along with support and games, even after the following gen came out.

I don't see that for the PS4.

Avatar image for deactivated-5c3c67cee15c8
#30 Posted by deactivated-5c3c67cee15c8 (75 posts) -

120 million is a safe bet

Avatar image for Ibacai
#31 Posted by Ibacai (13820 posts) -

I just don’t see it happening. That’s 60 million more units to sell when we have only 2 more possible years in the spotlight. Yes, it will still sell after the PS5 launches but at drastically lower numbers.

Color me a pessimist but I say hard no.

Avatar image for Steppy_76
#32 Edited by Steppy_76 (2695 posts) -

@PAL360: the ps4 has a hdd which makes a sub 200 dollar ps4 very unlikely. The ps2 sold another 60 million units after the next started when its price dropped to 149... the ps4 isn't ever getting to that pricepoint.

Avatar image for anthonyautumns
#33 Posted by AnthonyAutumns (1683 posts) -

Console gaming boom on China might make it possible. But CN is heavily tied to pc and mobile games.

Avatar image for voljin1987
#34 Posted by voljin1987 (1064 posts) -

For the right price I wouldnt mind getting a new Ps2. The games are pure classics whihc have stood the test of time although most of the best games have all been remastered. None of the Ps4 games have that level of replayability.

Avatar image for mowgly1
#35 Posted by mowgly1 (1214 posts) -

@Jag85 said:

The PS4 hasn't outpaced the PS2. If you start counting from the date of the PS2's international release in late 2000, then the PS2 was ahead of the PS4 at this point in its life cycle. The PS4 would have to sell a ton of consoles after the PS5 releases if it wants to catch the PS2.

PS4 launch aligned is outpacing PS2 by 4-5 million units.

PS2 same time-frame : March 2005 : 87.45 mil units ( shipped )

Avatar image for mowgly1
#36 Posted by mowgly1 (1214 posts) -

@techhog89:

He's wrong, though

Avatar image for techhog89
#37 Posted by Techhog89 (3722 posts) -
@mowgly1 said:

@techhog89:

He's wrong, though

I know. That's why I wanted him to work through the math himself and figure that out.

Avatar image for 2Chalupas
#38 Posted by 2Chalupas (7061 posts) -

If they do keep the PS4 going at a bargain price, then sure. It could get very close IMO. But I think it will come up slightly short as we transition to PS5. It really depends on where they decide to cut off PS4 production. Whatever they produce will get sold, it just depends on the price for those final units. Didn't the PS2 have several years at the end where it was like $129? They might not be interested in that for PS4, so that IMO makes the final push to PS2 numbers very difficult.

Avatar image for Steppy_76
#39 Edited by Steppy_76 (2695 posts) -

I know its Wikipedia, but there March numbers are listed the same as the ones shown above so I'll assume they're accurate. WW sales of the PS2 on 11/29/05 were listed at 100.01. Asia sold 1.51 million consoles from March 31st - November 29th 2005, so subtract that from 100.01 million consoles sold WW to give total sales from 5 years of sales in each region gives you 98.5 million consoles sold in 5 years and 1 month for the PS2 WW. As of Dec 31st the PS4 was at 91.6 million WW(and that gives the PS4 an extra December). The PS4 is quite a bit behind the PS2 worldwide if the numbers are to believed(by 7.65 million consoles if we use dec 31, 2005 numbers for comparison).

Avatar image for mowgly1
#40 Edited by mowgly1 (1214 posts) -

@Steppy_76 said:

I know its Wikipedia, but there March numbers are listed the same as the ones shown above so I'll assume they're accurate. WW sales of the PS2 on 11/29/05 were listed at 100.01. Asia sold 1.51 million consoles from March 31st - November 29th 2005, so subtract that from 100.01 million consoles sold WW to give total sales from 5 years of sales in each region gives you 98.5 million consoles sold in 5 years and 1 month for the PS2 WW. As of Dec 31st the PS4 was at 91.6 million WW(and that gives the PS4 an extra December). The PS4 is quite a bit behind the PS2 worldwide if the numbers are to believed(by 7.65 million consoles if we use dec 31, 2005 numbers for comparison).

Wrong, Steppy, Very wrong. My comparison is correct! You're way off with date! Why?

PlayStation 2 Sales Hit 100 Million

https://www.pcworld.com/article/123760/article.html

"In reaching 100 million units shipped after five years and nine months,

PS4 is on market 5 years and 2 months.

So, again :

PS4 launch aligned is outpacing PS2 by 4-5 million units.

PS2 same time-frame : March 2005 : 87.45 mil units ( shipped because those numbers are from Q reports ). If you like more :

https://venturebeat.com/2018/11/15/playstation-4-sales-pass-86-1-million-in-5-years/ ( November 15th )

PS2 numbers from Dec. 31st 2004. - 81.39 mil. ( shipped )

So, you're saying that PS4 is behind PS2? You should check again. Better this time.

Numbers on wiki are copied from official Sony's archive. Just click on "2" near 87.45 mil. Ask any analyst on Twitter ( Zhuge, Piscatella....) They would say the same numbers like me.

Avatar image for Steppy_76
#41 Posted by Steppy_76 (2695 posts) -

@mowgly1: are you forgetting the ps2 didn't launch in anywhere but Asia until October of 2000? So you're going to ignore six months of sales(which includes the holiday sales in na and Europe for 2005)? My total has 5 years and two months of sales for the ps2 off all regions and 5 years and one month for the ps4. The ps2 gets screwed because it didn't launch in 2 of the 3 largest markets for 6 months. The ps4 had a world wide launch. You have to normalize to compare apples to apples

Avatar image for ni6htmare01
#42 Posted by ni6htmare01 (3780 posts) -

I don't think there will be another 150+ console like the PS2..

Avatar image for mowgly1
#43 Edited by mowgly1 (1214 posts) -

@Steppy_76 said:

@mowgly1: are you forgetting the ps2 didn't launch in anywhere but Asia until October of 2000? So you're going to ignore six months of sales(which includes the holiday sales in na and Europe for 2005)? My total has 5 years and two months of sales for the ps2 off all regions and 5 years and one month for the ps4. The ps2 gets screwed because it didn't launch in 2 of the 3 largest markets for 6 months. The ps4 had a world wide launch. You have to normalize to compare apples to apples

What is "your total"? You don't write reports nor you publish them.

Than Sony shouldn't do the same when they compared PS4 sales with PS2 years ago. Launch is launch. In 1, 2, 5, 10 countries.... Launch is launch!PS4 is outpacing PS2 by 5 million.

According to your logic, PS4 and Xbone shouldn't be compared launch aligned because PS4 launched in more countries.

Feel free to correct Sony when they officially publish Q reports.

Any analyst would mock you left and right.

Avatar image for Pedro
#44 Posted by Pedro (34426 posts) -

110 million IF the PS5 launches next year.

Avatar image for Steppy_76
#45 Posted by Steppy_76 (2695 posts) -

@mowgly1 said:
@Steppy_76 said:

@mowgly1: are you forgetting the ps2 didn't launch in anywhere but Asia until October of 2000? So you're going to ignore six months of sales(which includes the holiday sales in na and Europe for 2005)? My total has 5 years and two months of sales for the ps2 off all regions and 5 years and one month for the ps4. The ps2 gets screwed because it didn't launch in 2 of the 3 largest markets for 6 months. The ps4 had a world wide launch. You have to normalize to compare apples to apples

What is "your total"? You don't write reports nor you publish them.

Than Sony shouldn't do the same when they compared PS4 sales with PS2 years ago. Launch is launch. In 1, 2, 5, 10 countries.... Launch is launch!PS4 is outpacing PS2 by 5 million.

According to your logic, PS4 and Xbone shouldn't be compared launch aligned because PS4 launched in more countries.

Feel free to correct Sony when they officially publish Q reports.

Any analyst would mock you left and right.

Cumulative shipment totals (millions)[edit]

DateAsia (including Japan)North AmericaEuropeWorldwide
March 31, 2005[2]20.7135.3531.4187.47
November 29, 2005[2]22.2240.6537.14100.01
December 31, 2005[2]22.8340.9937.55101.37

PS2 sales numbers. Since we have numbers for the PS4 through Dec 31st, 2018 (listed as 91.6M)

I will use the Dec 31st 2005 number of 101.37 million units shipped. I will then subtract the units sold in Asia from April 1 to Dec 31(22.83 - 20.71= 2.12 million units sold in asia in that timeframe)Which gives us 5 years of sales in every region. Using those numbers would have a total shipped on 12/31/05 of 101.37-2.12 gives you a number of 99.25 million consoles shipped in 5 years 2 months of availability in ALL markets. The PS4 shipped worldwide in 5 years and 1 month 91.6 million consoles. 99.25-91.6 is 7.65 million units less for the PS4 aligned to worldwide availability in the same amount of time.

If you think leaving out 6 months sales including a holiday season where 80% of yearly sales come for literally 75%+ of the market is an equal comparison that's fine.

We aren't analysts, I'm comparing both machines for equal time on the market. BTW, even if you take away an all sales in asia from the year 2000(3.94 million units) as well(giving asia 6 less months on market vs PS4 comparison)the PS2 STILL is ahead of the PS4.

Avatar image for KBFloYd
#47 Edited by KBFloYd (21808 posts) -

sure if its in the market for another 3 years and xbox doesnt release a new console in that time.

Avatar image for mowgly1
#48 Edited by mowgly1 (1214 posts) -
@Steppy_76 said:
@mowgly1 said:
@Steppy_76 said:

@mowgly1: are you forgetting the ps2 didn't launch in anywhere but Asia until October of 2000? So you're going to ignore six months of sales(which includes the holiday sales in na and Europe for 2005)? My total has 5 years and two months of sales for the ps2 off all regions and 5 years and one month for the ps4. The ps2 gets screwed because it didn't launch in 2 of the 3 largest markets for 6 months. The ps4 had a world wide launch. You have to normalize to compare apples to apples

What is "your total"? You don't write reports nor you publish them.

Than Sony shouldn't do the same when they compared PS4 sales with PS2 years ago. Launch is launch. In 1, 2, 5, 10 countries.... Launch is launch!PS4 is outpacing PS2 by 5 million.

According to your logic, PS4 and Xbone shouldn't be compared launch aligned because PS4 launched in more countries.

Feel free to correct Sony when they officially publish Q reports.

Any analyst would mock you left and right.

Cumulative shipment totals (millions)[edit]

DateAsia (including Japan)North AmericaEuropeWorldwide
March 31, 2005[2]20.7135.3531.4187.47
November 29, 2005[2]22.2240.6537.14100.01
December 31, 2005[2]22.8340.9937.55101.37

PS2 sales numbers. Since we have numbers for the PS4 through Dec 31st, 2018 (listed as 91.6M)

I will use the Dec 31st 2005 number of 101.37 million units shipped. I will then subtract the units sold in Asia from April 1 to Dec 31(22.83 - 20.71= 2.12 million units sold in asia in that timeframe)Which gives us 5 years of sales in every region. Using those numbers would have a total shipped on 12/31/05 of 101.37-2.12 gives you a number of 99.25 million consoles shipped in 5 years 2 months of availability in ALL markets. The PS4 shipped worldwide in 5 years and 1 month 91.6 million consoles. 99.25-91.6 is 7.65 million units less for the PS4 aligned to worldwide availability in the same amount of time.

If you think leaving out 6 months sales including a holiday season where 80% of yearly sales come for literally 75%+ of the market is an equal comparison that's fine.

We aren't analysts, I'm comparing both machines for equal time on the market. BTW, even if you take away an all sales in asia from the year 2000(3.94 million units) as well(giving asia 6 less months on market vs PS4 comparison)the PS2 STILL is ahead of the PS4.

Hahahaha! LOL. PS4 is outpacing PS2 by 5 mil. units. Not some your shitty and WRONG calculation that no one will ever use in future. You shortened PS2 lifetime by 9 months and switch numbers for specific period and changed them how you want it. How you can be so delusional? Really? Not a single proper analyst with some common sense like Zhuge or from NPD Mat Piscatella would do this and calculate it wrongly like you. Launch is launch. Same time-frame is same time-frame, no matter how many countries. Launch aligned comparison is launch aligned. No more, no less. And you can't change history. Like i said : According to your logic, PS4 and Xbone shouldn't be compared launch aligned because PS4 launched in more countries. Also, and Switch's launch shouldn't be compared to PS4 because Switch was launched during March

Only Xbone fan can do some crappy stuff like this!

Same time-frame and no more, no less :

Go to Resetera. Enlighten them with your knowledge.

Avatar image for ProtossRushX
#49 Posted by ProtossRushX (5331 posts) -

oh hell yes the ps4 has no competition

Avatar image for Steppy_76
#50 Posted by Steppy_76 (2695 posts) -

@mowgly1: the switch was a worldwide launch.

Let's break it down. Is the ps4 tracking ahead of the ps2 in north America aligned with their na launch? No. Is the ps4 tracking ahead of the ps2 in Europe aligned to their European launch? No. Asia? Nope. The ONLY time it's is tracking better is when you use the ASIAN launch which will always have you comparing 7 months less of sales in the two largest sales regions.