Can PS4 sell 20 million by year's end? #pachterfailedition

It's managed to sell approx 10 million* with a relatively small library lacking any killer exclusives. But the holiday's are looking pretty damn good with major games like Destiny coming out (there's even a Destiny bundle that comes with white ps4). Being that people are starting to make the switch to next gen more and more, will we see PS4 reach 20 million by year's end? Will it even come close? 20 million is pretty nuts, but I can see it coming close. PS4 is the obvious choice for multiplats and there's going to be a ton in Oct-Nov. We're already seeing less and less people go with last gen versions and I'm sure there will be some sweet deals to get people to make the switch. After all, $400 is a still a very good price for PS4.

** EDIT - Sony has confirmed 10 mill sold! http://www.theverge.com/2014/8/12/5995275/sony-has-sold-10-million-playstation-4s

By this year's end?

Hahaha. No. No, it cannot. It'll be around 14-15 million (at most) by December 31, 2014, if that's what you are asking.

No.

Maybe 15 but with their lack of exclusives thus far 20 isn't going to happen.

I mean, I just want to point out, it sold 9 million in the last ten months- this includes the launch rush period and hysteria, the Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year shopping periods, the launch of high profile games such as inFamous: Second Son, Battlefield 4, Killzone Shadow Fall, and Watch Dogs, and the E3 period... now, you are saying, that within the next five months, it will sell more than its entire LTD? Even if we were to accelerate the rate of sales to a million a month, it would reach 14 million and that's it. And considering there is no high profile exclusive or third party game left this year to launch, outside of the expected Assassin's Creed/Call of Duty/FIFA that everyone already knew was coming, and even that starts to look like a bit of an optimistic prediction.

It's a very foolish question, really.

Did you forget that supply was constrained for months? Also, "no high profile third party game left this year to launch" - did you forget Destiny? What about GTA V next gen version? And a lot of new IPs like Evolve, Evil Within, Driveclub (car games are always popular). And more traditional hits like Far Cry 4, Dragon Age Inquisition, Assassins Creed, LBP 3? You're saying kiddies won't be begging their parents to get them a ps4 this holiday season?

Sorry, I did forget Destiny entirely. That was my mistake, and I do see it driving sales. The others, no I do not see them driving sales at all. None of them are system sellers, to my mind.

Even if I am to accept your hypothesis and say the PS4 sells 1.5 million worldwide every month, it still only ends at 16.5 million.

20 million by the end of this year is just not happening, sorry. The console would have to sell 2.2 million units worldwide on average each month- just think about what that number really means.

Umm no. You're stating they could do 11 million more in about half the time they did 9 million. Holidays help, but not that much.

Nope.

By end of Fiscal Year, maybe.

@SolidGame_basic: Well the Wii sold 21 million it's first year and it was sold out for most of the year. PS4 isn't sold out anymore and it's probably selling less then 1 million a month now worldwide, so I doubt it. It would have to sell over 11 million in 5 months. I don't see that happening. I'm think 17-18 million if they are lucky.

Not to be pedantic, but I would add some minor correction to that. Destiny is going to be rather big and has a new SKU that may well please a lot of former 360 owners being white and coming with a Bungie title. There is also LittleBigPlanet3. So, I wouldn't exactly say the PS4 is out of gas going into the holidays.

Oh, and DriveClub.

This thread isn't closed yet ?

It sold 9.4 million by June 30 which is 7 and half months not 10 months or either 9 million.

Come on man,the PS4 shipped 7 million by April 1 add 2.4 million (the least) this pass quarter and you have 9.4 million units by june 30,which is exactly 7 and half months,since the PS3 landed on November 15.

I say it could sell 8 more million until then probably to end in 17 million maybe 16 million,this year also has a black Friday,and a busy holiday season,but i don't think it will reach 20.

if FFVX or MGSV comes out this year then you can add me as a +1

It sold 20 in 13+ months..

http://www.videogamesblogger.com/2008/01/26/nintendo-doubles-income-in-2007-to-24-billion-wii-hits-20-million-sales-worldwide-ds-hits-65-million-sales-worldwide.htm

But the wii had an advantage it was $250 which is way lower price point than the PS4,i expect the PS4 to do like 17 or 18,because it has move 9.4 million in 7 and half months.

Expect an MGSV launch date at gamescom.

Nah they'd have to drop GT7 and another big name title to get near that.

Sony is in no rush to sell hardware folks, get you PS4's while you can.

Whatever, the PS4 isn't going to reach that. Even Sony is predicting 17 million PS4 sold by March 2015. Where are you getting 9.4 million in 7 months. lmao!! I'd like to see a link from Sony saying they sold 9.4 million to customers. No it didn't move 9.4 million in 7 months. More like shipped 9.4 million in 9 months.

http://www.techtimes.com/articles/11744/20140731/playstation-4-gives-sony-big-gains-quarterly-financial-report.htm

analysis are already predicting that it will reach 20 million by the end of the summer

Breaks my heart that Wii U is selling so poorly. Nintendo didn't really have any games the first year nor does xboxone and ps4 but only nintendo suffered.. Maybe it was the lack of third party support.

If it did then Sony are truly gods at manipulation.

lol if you read my OP I mentioned Destiny and also said it I could see it coming close, like 17-18 million.

15 is possible, not 20

Summer of 2015 maybe if they are lucky.

13.5-14.5 million

@blackace: No one knows to customers, I don't know why anyone would have to specify

1-Sony predicted 5 million units by the fiscal year end.

http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/18/sony-plans-to-sell-5-million-ps4s-in-2013/

They sold 7 million by fiscal year ending... 2 more millions than they even predicted.lol

2-Sony predicted 3 million units sold by the end of December.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-11/sony-sees-sales-of-3-million-playstation-4-consoles-by-year-end.html

They sold 4.2 million units by December 31 1.2 million more than their own prediction..lol

Since when you care about sold to CONSUMERS hypocrite MS has been talking about shipped units since January this year,the xbox one isn't 5 million sold to consumers yet i haven't seen a link,all is 5 million + ship to retailers,so we can still seeing MS in 4+ million units sold.

Following on the heels of Nintendo's quarterly earnings statement, Sony has posted its own quarterly results for April to June 2014. The news is mostly good, with a huge year-over-year jump from $30.3 million this quarter last year to $261.8 million this year. That's an improvement of more than eight times the company's profits from a year ago.

One of the biggest reasons Sony's fortunes have improved is the PlayStation 4. Combined with PS3 sales, which are dropping in favor of the new console, Sony sold 3.5 million PlayStation

April to June hahahaaaaaaaaaaa from your own link...hahahha

It is estimated that between 2.4 and 2,7 million PS4 where shipped during that quarter and the difference between the xbox one and PS4 is very obvious the PS4 isn't collecting dust in warehouses.

And since we all know you never went to school and have some obscure sh** math let me brake it to you.

November 15 the PS4 launch.

November half a month.

December month 1.

January month 2.

February month 3.

March month 4. Fiscal year end 7 million mark

April month 5. Sony first quarter 2014 start.

May month 6.

June month 7. Sony first quarter 2014 ending. 2.4 to 2. million PS4 shipped.

Now count with me 1,2,3,4,5,6,7, and November which was 15 freaking days which = half a month..

7+ 1/2 = 7 and half.

Neither July or August are counted in Sony fiscal quarter which ended on June 30 2014 you sad lemming.

@amazonangry: source?

I'm amazed it's done this well thus far. It has nothing going for it besides hype. Even the features Sony promised for launch haven't been included yet.

If it even sells decently well this holiday I'll be surprised. Sony has always been terrible at releasing their exclusives in a timely manner for popular shopping times and they've waited till 2015 for most of the one's that will make a difference.

It wasn't that alone Nintendo did a terryble job differentiating the wii u from the wii,to the point where some people got Wii U games for their wii,and then latter went to stores to complain the games didn't work on their wii,also the price $350 and $300 when the wii was $250 which was the main advantage vs the stronger consoles,you see a new gen with a console having $400 and $600 price and you see a wii for $250 and you don't know sh** about power or care and yeah you will probably buy a wii.

I think Nintendo should go for $250 eat a little loss,and call that sh** wii 2,Nintendo has a tendency to change names to their systems,which is great if your product was a failure,but if it wasn't is totally stupid to not call it Wii 2.

Holidays should have a big boost, but I overall doubt it. Hell, I'd even bet TLOU:R will do pretty well sales-wise. But it's next year that all the games, both exclusive and multiplat, start to come. Sure plenty of people will wait until something that interests them releases while also possibly seeing if there are any pricedrops or deals.

Bookmarked for future fun making..

Whoa so much garbage and never even answered to my question. Where is the link for the 9.4 million smartass. They sold 7 mill as of April 13, 2014 --- >http://blog.us.playstation.com/2014/04/16/ps4-hits-7-million-globally/

We don't know how many were sold in this last quarter because Sony combined PS3 and PS4 sales totals. lol!! Get a life you sad pathetic trolling Cow. Please stop owning yourself. It's embarrassing.

It's very possible. Anything is possible with the Quad.

LOL @ blackace having another meltdown. The dude never fails to impress.

17-18 sounds reasonable. Destiny bundle launches next month could be huge and it rolls right into the holiday season

It will sell mass amounts in November and December for Christmas alone. And just because this forum doesn't like call of duty doesn't mean it's not going to sell 20 million and drive ps4 (and xbone ) sales - oh there's an ass creed too

Multiplats sell systems sorry

No, I would be surprised if they could even produce enough PS4's. At this point though they will vastly outdo any predictions people had at the start of the generation.

Oh man I sure hope they do...that would mean the world to me.

Hi guys! I’ve got a quick update to share with you. Sony Computer Entertainment, Inc. just announced that PS4 has cumulatively sold through more than 7.0 million units globally as of April 6th, 2014

So you don't know math and you don't know how to read either it was April 6 not 13 from where the fu** did you pull that number,which funny because on the Wii 21 million you claimed 1 year,when it reality was 20 million in 13 months.

Basically 6 days after the sony fiscal year ended how much do you think they sold in 6days more.?

You are a sad lemming sony shipped 3.5 million units,even if by a fu**ing miracle they shipped 1.1 million PS3 which is what they shipped last year that still leave 2.4 million PS4 + 7 million already sold which total 9.4 million,you can play dumb but if you try to imply that half the 3.5 million were PS3 i will imply that only 1,000 xbox one were part of the 1.1 million units MS ship,it is impossible for the PS3 which was declining year over year since 2011 to ship more in 2014 than it shipped in 2013 period.

Your grasping.

12-13 million is a far more reasonable goal line here. Unless the OP means FY14.

All but two of those games you mentioned are multiplats. Kids want what their friends have. If all of their friends are Xbox fans, they will move from 360 to X1, if they are PS people, they will transition to the PS4. There will be defectors on both sides. The big reason that the PS4 is ahead sales wise at the moment is because of the initial price difference between the X1 and PS4. Lets measure sales from when MS dropped the price and the Kinect! Lets see what happens when Halo TMCC hits as well as Forza Horizons 2 Vs. LBP3 and Drive Club. Both consoles are $399 and the casuals dont come to these forums and listen to all of the fanboy bullshit!

Of course they can. Godny is capable of anything.

Because they're worth it.

honestly most the time your referring to the damn thing was more SOLD out than anything. i mean unless you preordered or were sitting at the store waiting you were hard pressed to find one i know i sold 3 for $600

wtf do you know? it definitely can. this isn't the pathetic wii u which nobody even knows exists.

That's the other thing then, isn't it? How can it sell 20 million if Sony can't make 20 million of them to begin with?

The PS4 will have a LTD of 12-14 million by the end of the year most likely. Thereis nothing that will make it sell 15+ million that easily by the end of the year.By the end of the fiscal year it may be closer to 20 million.