Analysts: Switch is rapidly declining/doomed, needs emergency massive price cut.

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Techhog89

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#1 Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 4846 Posts

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nintendo-switch-loses-shine-as-killer-product-for-new-gaming-era-1.1174252

With few attractive titles for the holiday shopping season and shipments on track to fall short of the company’s targets, doubts are growing whether Nintendo Co.’s (NTDOY.PK) Switch can ever become a mass-market product.

When the device debuted last year as a hybrid console that could be carried around, it was classic Nintendo — a new gadget that broke the norms of conventional video games. Equipped with a built-in screen and hypersensitive controllers, the Switch was billed as a worthy successor to the Wii, Nintendo’s rule-breaking blockbuster console.

The goal was to make the gaming experience as seamless as possible, while letting people use the product in new ways, such as turning it into a virtual piano or motorcycle. But so far, the Switch has struggled to find customers beyond a core fan base. The Switch is on track to reach 35 million unit shipments by March, according to the average of eight analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg, short of Nintendo’s target of 38 million.

After cramming its best franchises — Super Mario, Zelda and Splatoon — into the first 12 months, the Kyoto-based company was left with fewer games to show off in the second year, hurting hardware sales. Cardboard accessories introduced in April, called Nintendo Labo, have mostly failed to expand interest beyond those who were already planning to pick up a Switch.

“All great consoles need a great second year, and Nintendo hasn’t delivered one for the Switch,” said Cornelio Ash, an analyst at William O’Neil & Co. in Los Angeles. “Investors thought over five years they could sell maybe 90 million units. But after this year, that’s looking pretty much impossible.”

Nintendo declined to comment on the forecast or plans for the Switch, and representatives pointed to recent comments by executives saying that it’s too early to evaluate performance for the second year, and that the company is sticking by its forecast.

The holiday quarter historically accounts for about half of the game maker’s sales, and analysts have been reducing their full-year estimates for operating profit and revenue since March. Nintendo shares have dropped 34 per cent since a January peak, wiping out US$21 billion in market value. The drop was initially driven by short-selling hedge funds, but recent declines have been fueled by existing shareholders, according to data from Markit Securities.

“The stock is heading back to the level when the Switch was announced, which doesn’t say great things about its long-term prospects,” Ash said.

Even so, 20 out of 23 analysts tracked by Bloomberg continue to recommend buying the stock.

This year’s biggest disappointment has been Nintendo Labo, the cardboard add-ons that transform the Switch into playable objects. Like the Wii, they were designed to appeal to non gamers to broaden the device’s customers beyond core fans. But sales have struggled. Last month, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa told reporters in Osaka that “it will take time” to see if the product delivers.

“2018 was a reality check and brought lofty expectations back down to Earth,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities Inc. “The Switch is great, but is still primarily a handheld, and a very expensive one.”

That opens the possibility of price cuts. History suggests reductions will have to be aggressive in order to work. Sales of the 3DS picked up only after prices were slashed by 40 per cent five months after launch, but the Wii U didn’t recover even after Nintendo dropped the price by about 15 per cent within a year after release.

“I don’t see sales growing unless the price is reduced to below US$200,” Pachter said, indicating a 33 per cent cut from the Switch’s current price.

While a lower price sticker would help boost Switch sales, it may further depress sales of the 3DS. Ever since the Switch was announced, analysts have expressed concern that it will cannibalize sales of Nintendo’s other portable gaming device. Those fears have been borne out, with total 3DS revenue down by almost two-thirds this fiscal year.

Another possibility is the introduction of different hardware versions, such as one designed for children. Credit Suisse Group AG sees “a strong likelihood” that new Switch models will go on sale as soon as next year. “Any announcement to this effect would likely come before mid-2019, possibly as early as the management policy briefing scheduled at end-January,” analysts including Hanako Takahashi wrote in a report last week.

Apart from potential price cuts and new models, the other key to regaining momentum will be new games. Nintendo is planning big releases next year, including a new Animal Crossing game, a Pokemon title and the latest installment of its Metroid series. Whether that can broaden the install base beyond core gamers remains to be seen. Tellingly, executives have stopped comparing the Switch to the Wii during investor meetings in recent months.

If Nintendo posts a weak holiday quarter or Switch shipments show that it will probably miss the fiscal-year target, executives will face tough questions on how they plan to regain lost momentum. That could open up possibilities for bigger changes to the platform next year.

“The Switch excitement has rapidly declined, ” Ash said. “Unless there’s significant change or something else new, the Switch story has been exhausted.”

hehe

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Pedro

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#2 Pedro
Member since 2002 • 55422 Posts

The smell of SW damage control.

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Techhog89

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#3 Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 4846 Posts
@Pedro said:

The smell of SW damage control.

The irony

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deactivated-5d78760d7d740

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#4 deactivated-5d78760d7d740
Member since 2009 • 16386 Posts

Huh...looks like they need to SWITCH gears and head in another direction B-).

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KBFloYd

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#5  Edited By KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22713 Posts

lol this article mentions nothing of the phenomenal success of pokemon and switch this black friday.

this article is all about nintendo 38million projection might not get achieved and the fact that there were no big games this year and sales suffered because of it. nintendo stock staying the same.

nothing in this article was new.

are you bored or what?

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FireEmblem_Man

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#6 FireEmblem_Man
Member since 2004 • 20019 Posts

@techhog89 Rule #1 - Never listen to analyst! Rule 2 - See the 1st rule.

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Xabiss

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#7 Xabiss
Member since 2012 • 4749 Posts

Switch is doing just fine. The industry as a whole is doing great. That is all that matters!

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BenjaminBanklin

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#8 BenjaminBanklin
Member since 2004 • 9003 Posts

They'll be okay. All they need is to come out with software regularly. You see they can slap a Pokemon sticker on anything and it'll sell a million copies in a heartbeat.

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KBFloYd

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#9 KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22713 Posts

wait...

i get it now guys.

This is a pro nintendo thread. he is laughing at that stupid analyst that wanted nintendo to cut the price to 200$

because this november people didnt care and would have paid 400$ for a switch the way they are flying off the shelves.

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Planeforger

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#10 Planeforger
Member since 2004 • 18755 Posts

Michael Pachter really shouldn't be allowed to lend out his crystal ball.

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Techhog89

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#11  Edited By Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 4846 Posts
@KBFloYd said:

wait...

i get it now guys.

This is a pro nintendo thread. he is laughing at that stupid analyst that wanted nintendo to cut the price to 200$

Yes, you got i-

because this november people didnt care and would have paid 400$ for a switch the way they are flying off the shelves.

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WhatAFailure

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#12  Edited By WhatAFailure
Member since 2017 • 600 Posts

It sold well during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and SSBU will also keep things going throughout the year.

But the Switch will probably run into problems in 2019. Same droughts as always and lots more rehashed ports (notice how Sheep are fine with it when Nintendo does it but made fun of PS4 and Xbox One users for having them).

And I bet you many parents have no idea Nintendo now charges for online. Many kids will be asking why they can't play SSBU and Mario Kart online.

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FireEmblem_Man

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#13 FireEmblem_Man
Member since 2004 • 20019 Posts
@whatafailure said:

It sold well during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and SSBU will also keep things going throughout the year.

But the Switch will probably run into problems in 2019. Same droughts as always. And I bet you many parents have no idea Nintendo now charges for online. Many kids will be asking why they can't play SSBU and Mario Kart online.

Another Failure analyst you got on your second paragraph. If rumors are true, a Zelda game is possibly coming next year, a long with better titles such as Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Metroid Prime 4, New Super Mario U DX, and Pokemon Gen 8.

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KBFloYd

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#14  Edited By KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22713 Posts

@whatafailure said:

It sold well during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and SSBU will also keep things going throughout the year.

But the Switch will probably run into problems in 2019. Same droughts as always. And I bet you many parents have no idea Nintendo now charges for online. Many kids will be asking why they can't play SSBU and Mario Kart online.

daemanxmachina

newsuper mario bros deluxe

bayonetta 3

metroid prime 4

animal crossing

fire emblem 3 houses

town (gamefreak)

yoshi crafted world

shinmegamitensei 5

yokai watch 4

luigis mansion 3

no more heroes: travis strikes again

Pokemon "the real deal"

3rd party ports?:

maybe overwatch

dragon quest 11 port

resident evil 4/resident evil 1 remake

final fantasy 7,9,10,12

team sonic racing

AND THATS JUST WHAT WE KNOW TODAY

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KBFloYd

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#15 KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22713 Posts

@techhog89 said:
@KBFloYd said:

wait...

i get it now guys.

This is a pro nintendo thread. he is laughing at that stupid analyst that wanted nintendo to cut the price to 200$

Yes, you got i-

because this november people didnt care and would have paid 400$ for a switch the way they are flying off the shelves.

we just can't see eye to eye lol

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WhatAFailure

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#16 WhatAFailure
Member since 2017 • 600 Posts
@FireEmblem_Man said:

Another Failure analyst you got on your second paragraph. If rumors are true, a Zelda game is possibly coming next year, a long with better titles such as Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Metroid Prime 4, New Super Mario U DX, and Pokemon Gen 8.

The drought problem with Nintendo always happens in the first half of the year, often even longer. They come out stronger during the Holidays. The problem is they suffer losses of momentum, dips in stock and lost gamers earlier on. Something they cannot afford when they are a relatively new system.

Is Metroid Prime 4 (which isn't even made by Retro now) coming in the first half of 2019? Do we know for sure this is a system seller? The only one I think is going to be huge, to match something like RDR2, God of War, Spider-Man and TLOU2, is Pokemon Gen 8.

The rest, like New Super Mario U DX, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing will help, but they are not huge system movers. If they do come out earlier in the year though, that would help.

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pdogg93

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#17 pdogg93
Member since 2015 • 1849 Posts

@KBFloYd: I cringe at every single one of your pro Nintendo posts. How long is your neckbeard right now?

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Random_Matt

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#18 Random_Matt
Member since 2013 • 6514 Posts

And they assume Nintendo must sell 100m or so. Was never going to beat DS sales, it makes them money still.

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KBFloYd

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#19 KBFloYd
Member since 2009 • 22713 Posts

@pdogg93 said:

@KBFloYd: I cringe at every single one of your pro Nintendo posts. How long is your neckbeard right now?

want to step outside bitch?

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dotWithShoes

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#20 dotWithShoes
Member since 2006 • 5594 Posts

I think the analyst are forgetting that the Switch just put up Nintendo's BEST ever Black Friday weekend, ever... beating even the Wii's black fridays. I'm sure they just over looked that, and Smash.

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hrt_rulz01

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#21 hrt_rulz01
Member since 2006 • 21223 Posts

A price cut certainly wouldn't hurt... it'd make me buy one finally.

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knight-k

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#22  Edited By knight-k
Member since 2005 • 2596 Posts

@KBFloYd said:
@whatafailure said:

It sold well during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and SSBU will also keep things going throughout the year.

But the Switch will probably run into problems in 2019. Same droughts as always. And I bet you many parents have no idea Nintendo now charges for online. Many kids will be asking why they can't play SSBU and Mario Kart online.

daemanxmachina

newsuper mario bros deluxe

bayonetta 3

metroid prime 4

animal crossing

fire emblem 3 houses

town (gamefreak)

yoshi crafted world

shinmegamitensei 5

yokai watch 4

luigis mansion 3

no more heroes: travis strikes again

Pokemon "the real deal"

3rd party ports?:

maybe overwatch

dragon quest 11 port

resident evil 4/resident evil 1 remake

final fantasy 7,9,10,12

team sonic racing

AND THATS JUST WHAT WE KNOW TODAY

Pathetic list actually, it's clear Switch can't compete with PS4 now.

Let's see what new gimmick nintendo will push down the throats of fans now that labo has failed.

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kenshiro3948

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#23  Edited By kenshiro3948
Member since 2018 • 406 Posts

While it's not doing as hot as the PS4, it's still doing very well and I'm sure Nintendo are pleased with its performance. Not every system should do massive fire sales early in its life like the XBone to stay relevant. Deals and price cuts should be reserved for holidays and special promotion periods so that products don't lose their value (I'm looking at you MS).

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xhawk27

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#24 xhawk27
Member since 2010 • 11727 Posts

@kenshiro3948 said:

While it's not doing as hot as the PS4, it's still doing very well and I'm sure Nintendo are pleased with its performance. Not every system should do massive fire sales early in its life like the XBone to stay relevant. Deals and price cuts should be reserved for holidays and special promotion periods so that product don't lose their value (I'm looking at you MS).

Yeah So if a company like say Sony throws in a recent game to boost sales that's different right? lol

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dotWithShoes

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#25 dotWithShoes
Member since 2006 • 5594 Posts

@kenshiro3948 said:

While it's not doing as hot as the PS4, it's still doing very well and I'm sure Nintendo are pleased with its performance. Not every system should do massive fire sales early in its life like the XBone to stay relevant. Deals and price cuts should be reserved for holidays and special promotion periods so that product don't lose their value (I'm looking at you MS).

According to at least one analyst it sold better than the PS4 online over black friday weekend.

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sonny2dap

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#26 sonny2dap
Member since 2008 • 1714 Posts

Really could do with a price cut, don't think it's all doom and gloom far from it but I can see its' current price point is definitely a big put off especially at this point in the gen when the switch is very much going to be an ancillary system.

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kenshiro3948

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#27  Edited By kenshiro3948
Member since 2018 • 406 Posts
@xhawk27 said:
@kenshiro3948 said:

While it's not doing as hot as the PS4, it's still doing very well and I'm sure Nintendo are pleased with its performance. Not every system should do massive fire sales early in its life like the XBone to stay relevant. Deals and price cuts should be reserved for holidays and special promotion periods so that product don't lose their value (I'm looking at you MS).

Yeah So if a company like say Sony throws in a recent game to boost sales that's different right? lol

Typical lemming with reading comprehension issues. Where has Sony been offering free games all year like MS has lemming?

The reason the Spidey bundle is selling so well in the first place is that the PS4 rarely ever has any sales. It's been out for 5 years and up until Black Friday it only only had 1 permanent price drop to $299. It's been selling well without bundles unlike the XB1 that needs fire sales and bundles the entire year to compete. Outside of special bundles like Spider-Man, BO4, and RDR2 Sony hasn't been giving away any free games unlike MS, and that's what I meant.

@dotWithShoes said:
@kenshiro3948 said:

While it's not doing as hot as the PS4, it's still doing very well and I'm sure Nintendo are pleased with its performance. Not every system should do massive fire sales early in its life like the XBone to stay relevant. Deals and price cuts should be reserved for holidays and special promotion periods so that product don't lose their value (I'm looking at you MS).

According to at least one analyst it sold better than the PS4 online over black friday weekend.

I doubt that analyst is right seeing how well those Spidey bundles were selling but anything is possible. I'll wait and see PR statements and NPD results.

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ArchoNils2

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#28 ArchoNils2
Member since 2005 • 10534 Posts

It seems like "those analysts" are idiots then. Saying something this stupid mere days before Smash launches

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SecretPolice

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#29 SecretPolice
Member since 2007 • 39544 Posts

Bait & Switch..When they can't even sell Handhelds by the boatload anymore... Nintendont is doomed... Dooomed I tellz ya. :P

:P

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koko-goal

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#30 koko-goal
Member since 2008 • 1122 Posts

@KBFloYd said:
@whatafailure said:

It sold well during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and SSBU will also keep things going throughout the year.

But the Switch will probably run into problems in 2019. Same droughts as always. And I bet you many parents have no idea Nintendo now charges for online. Many kids will be asking why they can't play SSBU and Mario Kart online.

daemanxmachina

newsuper mario bros deluxe

bayonetta 3

metroid prime 4

animal crossing

fire emblem 3 houses

town (gamefreak)

yoshi crafted world

shinmegamitensei 5

yokai watch 4

luigis mansion 3

no more heroes: travis strikes again

Pokemon "the real deal"

3rd party ports?:

maybe overwatch

dragon quest 11 port

resident evil 4/resident evil 1 remake

final fantasy 7,9,10,12

team sonic racing

AND THATS JUST WHAT WE KNOW TODAY

Such a sad list of games.

And maybe Overwatch...

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robert_sparkes

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#31 robert_sparkes
Member since 2018 • 5697 Posts

Be interesting to see the sales with the Pokemon bundles. Got to be the best selling console this month.

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SchnabbleTab

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#32 SchnabbleTab
Member since 2013 • 1488 Posts

@KBFloYd said:

lol this article mentions nothing of the phenomenal success of pokemon and switch this black friday.

this article is all about nintendo 38million projection might not get achieved and the fact that there were no big games this year and sales suffered because of it. nintendo stock staying the same.

nothing in this article was new.

are you bored or what?

The funny thing is, next year the Switch will be 2 years old and will likely have beat the X1, X1S and X1X combined in sales in about 1/3 of the time, but somehow the Switch is doomed? Lolwut.

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xantufrog

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#33  Edited By xantufrog  Moderator
Member since 2013 • 17088 Posts

How can they conclude that? It had its best black Friday / cyber Monday - without a price cut or even any particularly outstanding bundles. It sold more than double what it did laat year at this time - still at 300 dollars and without the sacred RDR2

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SchnabbleTab

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#34 SchnabbleTab
Member since 2013 • 1488 Posts
@knight-k said:
@KBFloYd said:
@whatafailure said:

It sold well during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and SSBU will also keep things going throughout the year.

But the Switch will probably run into problems in 2019. Same droughts as always. And I bet you many parents have no idea Nintendo now charges for online. Many kids will be asking why they can't play SSBU and Mario Kart online.

Pathetic list actually, it's clear Switch can't compete with PS4 now.

Let's see what new gimmick nintendo will push down the throats of fans now that labo has failed.

Compete? In what way? The Switch will be around 35 Million units sold next March, in the same time frame the PS4 was at 35.9 Million units sold, so the Switch is doing just as well as the PS4.

Hell, it's roflstomping the X1, X1S and X1X combined, lol.

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djoffer

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#35 djoffer
Member since 2007 • 1856 Posts

Sooo another fail thread by tech...

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Macutchi

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#36 Macutchi
Member since 2007 • 8202 Posts

the games need to come down in price. cheeky bastards charging £50+ per marquee game

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Techhog89

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#37 Techhog89
Member since 2015 • 4846 Posts
@xantufrog said:

How can they conclude that? It had its best black Friday / cyber Monday - without a price cut or even any particularly outstanding bundles. It sold more than double what it did laat year at this time - still at 300 dollars and without the sacred RDR2

This was actually made the day before that PR went out.

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Solaryellow

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#38  Edited By Solaryellow
Member since 2013 • 6389 Posts

@KBFloYd said:

lol this article mentions nothing of the phenomenal success of pokemon and switch this black friday.

this article is all about nintendo 38million projection might not get achieved and the fact that there were no big games this year and sales suffered because of it. nintendo stock staying the same.

nothing in this article was new.

are you bored or what?

When it comes to the state of the console, I'd put my eggs in the basket of the enthusiasts and players rather than analysts. Many of these paid "know-it-all's" thought Switch was going to be another Wii U and when someone says all of its best franchises have been used already, I know to classify the article under C.S. Pokemon and Smash are coming or just released but those aren't termed "best?" I eagerly await the sales number after Christmas for both the console and the software.

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Bread_or_Decide

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#39  Edited By Bread_or_Decide
Member since 2007 • 29739 Posts

Cutting the price would ruin the Switch. Making it lower would actually ruin the appeal.

Maybe in another year, $250?

Or release a new sku at the same price.

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Archangel3371

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#40 Archangel3371
Member since 2004 • 36481 Posts

Umm, yeah. I think the Switch is doing and will continue to do just fine myself.

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Bread_or_Decide

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#41 Bread_or_Decide
Member since 2007 • 29739 Posts

@Solaryellow said:
@KBFloYd said:

lol this article mentions nothing of the phenomenal success of pokemon and switch this black friday.

this article is all about nintendo 38million projection might not get achieved and the fact that there were no big games this year and sales suffered because of it. nintendo stock staying the same.

nothing in this article was new.

are you bored or what?

When it comes to the state of the console, I'd put my eggs in the basket of the enthusiasts and players rather than analysts. Many of these paid "know-it-all's" thought Switch was going to be another Wii U and when someone says all of its best franchises have been used already, I know to classify the article under C.S. Pokemon and Smash are coming or just released but those aren't termed "best?" I eagerly await the sales number after Christmas for both the console and the software.

Agreed. They've got so many aces up their sleeve for the next 2-3 years.

Prime 4, Pokemon, animal crossing, luigi's mansion 3, bayonetta 3. Animal and Pokemon alone will put this thing in 3DS sales territory or better.

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svaubel

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#42 svaubel
Member since 2005 • 4557 Posts

So Nintendo reporting its best black Friday ever for a console, and its US sales are very close to tracking the PS2 of all things equals all this doom and gloom. Yeah okay.

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daredevils2k

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#43 daredevils2k
Member since 2015 • 3519 Posts

Wow this post just shows how desperate Lems are wanting MS to come inn 2nd place this gen. Sorry lems , but Nintendo passing up the 35 mill Xb1 sold should not be a problem for Nintendo.

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Shewgenja

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#44 Shewgenja
Member since 2009 • 21456 Posts

Things that wont happen before the holidays are over, Alex.

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Valgaav_219

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#45 Valgaav_219
Member since 2017 • 2831 Posts

@hrt_rulz01 said:

A price cut certainly wouldn't hurt... it'd make me buy one finally.

Yup. I'm definitely waiting lol

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PurpleMan5000

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#46 PurpleMan5000
Member since 2011 • 10235 Posts

The Switch really deserves to be struggling after 2018. Nintendo needs to put more games on the market. 2019 looks a lot better, at least.

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Jag85

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#47 Jag85
Member since 2005 • 16202 Posts

Nintendo has been perpetually doomed for 129 years and counting.

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pdogg93

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#48 pdogg93
Member since 2015 • 1849 Posts

@KBFloYd: lolllolol lemme guess, I’ll be at the other end of your katana and nunchucks right??? Nothing more pathetic than a grown man defending a little kiddie system ahhahahaha

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mandzilla

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#49 mandzilla  Moderator
Member since 2017 • 4686 Posts

Don't these analysts ever get tired of being wrong? :D Switch got 2019 on lockdown, not sure what anyone else has that can compete with its lineup.

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davillain-

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#50  Edited By davillain-  Moderator
Member since 2014 • 49064 Posts

Well, I mean, Super smash Bros. Ultimate isn't out yet, some are waiting for that game to be release so they can buy Nintendo Switch in the process. Next month, (December 2018) just watch when SSB Ultimate launch, the Switch sales will be booming!