A myth about NPD numbers than needs to be cleared up.

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TOAO_Cyrus1

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#1 TOAO_Cyrus1
Member since 2004 • 2895 Posts

Lots of cows (I guess lemmings too but not lately) are trying to claim that the reason NPD numbers are different from VGChartz is because NPD doesn't receive data from all retailers. This is completely false. They don't just pretend Wall Mart doesn't exist, they get as much data on the market that they can and extrapolate the rest. Of course this isn't 100% accurate but is probably within a few percent. Its really quite simple, all you do is take what you have and then add the market share of the retailers missing and you have a pretty good estimate. Obviously they go much farther then this but you get the picture.

Both VGChartz and NPD's final numbers are estimates but the claim that VGChartz can be more accurate then NPD because they lack Wall Mart is absurd. VGchartz has no data except for historical trends while NPD has sales from the majority of retailers.

NPD has a great track record that always meshes with reports from publishers and manufacturers, in fact I have never heard of anyone from industry disputing NPD's claims about their products.

Also wrong numbers aren't a substitute for the lack of numbers so the lack of international reports is not an excuse to use VGChartz either.

Acceptable sources:

NPD for North America

MediaCreate and Famitsu for Japan

Quarterly reports for WW numbers.

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stereointegrity

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#2 stereointegrity
Member since 2007 • 12151 Posts
blog it....this wont help the fact vgchartz will still be abused all over system wars
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alittletoohappy

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#3 alittletoohappy
Member since 2006 • 1254 Posts
What is NPD? What is VGChartz?
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stereointegrity

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#4 stereointegrity
Member since 2007 • 12151 Posts

What is NPD? What is VGChartz?alittletoohappy
google will give u the best answer

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TOAO_Cyrus1

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#5 TOAO_Cyrus1
Member since 2004 • 2895 Posts

[QUOTE="alittletoohappy"]What is NPD? What is VGChartz?stereointegrity

google will give u the best answer

Hes just being sarcastic about all the post about this right now.
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lostpariah

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#6 lostpariah
Member since 2010 • 587 Posts

[QUOTE="alittletoohappy"]What is NPD? What is VGChartz?stereointegrity

google will give u the best answer

+1

GOOGLE FTW!

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GunSmith1_basic

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#7 GunSmith1_basic
Member since 2002 • 10548 Posts
BING! nah just kidding. google
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LoseEagles1245

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#8 LoseEagles1245
Member since 2007 • 1115 Posts

Lots of cows (I guess lemmings too but not lately) are trying to claim that the reason NPD numbers are different from VGChartz is because NPD doesn't receive data from all retailers. This is completely false. They don't just pretend Wall Mart doesn't exist, they get as much data on the market that they can and extrapolate the rest. Of course this isn't 100% accurate but is probably within a few percent. Its really quite simple, all you do is take what you have and then add the market share of the retailers missing and you have a pretty good estimate. Obviously they go much farther then this but you get the picture.

Both VGChartz and NPD's final numbers are estimates but the claim that VGChartz can be more accurate then NPD because they lack Wall Mart is absurd. VGchartz has no data except for historical trends while NPD has sales from the majority of retailers.

NPD has a great track record that always meshes with reports from publishers and manufacturers, in fact I have never heard of anyone from industry disputing NPD's claims about their products.

Also wrong numbers aren't a substitute for the lack of numbers so the lack of international reports is not an excuse to use VGChartz either.

Acceptable sources:

NPD for North America

MediaCreate and Famitsu for Japan

Quarterly reports for WW numbers.

TOAO_Cyrus1
Who's claiming that VGchartz is more accurate than NPD?
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surrealnumber5

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#9 surrealnumber5
Member since 2008 • 23044 Posts

Lots of cows (I guess lemmings too but not lately) are trying to claim that the reason NPD numbers are different from VGChartz is because NPD doesn't receive data from all retailers. This is completely false. They don't just pretend Wall Mart doesn't exist, they get as much data on the market that they can and extrapolate the rest. Of course this isn't 100% accurate but is probably within a few percent. Its really quite simple, all you do is take what you have and then add the market share of the retailers missing and you have a pretty good estimate. Obviously they go much farther then this but you get the picture.

Both VGChartz and NPD's final numbers are estimates but the claim that VGChartz can be more accurate then NPD because they lack Wall Mart is absurd. VGchartz has no data except for historical trends while NPD has sales from the majority of retailers.

NPD has a great track record that always meshes with reports from publishers and manufacturers, in fact I have never heard of anyone from industry disputing NPD's claims about their products.

Also wrong numbers aren't a substitute for the lack of numbers so the lack of international reports is not an excuse to use VGChartz either.

Acceptable sources:

NPD for North America

MediaCreate and Famitsu for Japan

Quarterly reports for WW numbers.

TOAO_Cyrus1

good post, i would just like to add that VG charts are ok for long term ball parking as they adjust their numbers when hard data comes out, but they are not to be used to counter the likes of mediacreate/famitsu or NPD

i would be willing to bet NPD group aims to be 2q (95%) if not 3q (99%) from actual numbers

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subrosian

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#10 subrosian
Member since 2005 • 14232 Posts
blog it....this wont help the fact vgchartz will still be abused all over system warsstereointegrity
I'm basically of the opinion that anyone who uses VGCHARTZ should be banned. I could care less about the idiotic fanboy wars, VGC is a cancer to anyone who cares about good data. If you're someone looking to that sales data to say, make an investment decision regarding a new developer, or projects coming out of a studio, the last thing you want is a bunch of college drop-outs who stole data from Amazon, Walmart, and GameStop telling you how thing are going. Trusting the idiots at VGC is like getting a blood transfusion from a rabid monkey... sure, it sounds exciting, but you'd have to be a complete moron to do it.
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SolidTy

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#11 SolidTy
Member since 2005 • 49991 Posts

*Sprinkles magic growing powder on thread*

There, give this thread a few days, and it will be nice an plump.:P

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mtradr43

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#12 mtradr43
Member since 2005 • 5272 Posts
[QUOTE="LoseEagles1245"][QUOTE="TOAO_Cyrus1"]

Lots of cows (I guess lemmings too but not lately) are trying to claim that the reason NPD numbers are different from VGChartz is because NPD doesn't receive data from all retailers. This is completely false. They don't just pretend Wall Mart doesn't exist, they get as much data on the market that they can and extrapolate the rest. Of course this isn't 100% accurate but is probably within a few percent. Its really quite simple, all you do is take what you have and then add the market share of the retailers missing and you have a pretty good estimate. Obviously they go much farther then this but you get the picture.

Both VGChartz and NPD's final numbers are estimates but the claim that VGChartz can be more accurate then NPD because they lack Wall Mart is absurd. VGchartz has no data except for historical trends while NPD has sales from the majority of retailers.

NPD has a great track record that always meshes with reports from publishers and manufacturers, in fact I have never heard of anyone from industry disputing NPD's claims about their products.

Also wrong numbers aren't a substitute for the lack of numbers so the lack of international reports is not an excuse to use VGChartz either.

Acceptable sources:

NPD for North America

MediaCreate and Famitsu for Japan

Quarterly reports for WW numbers.

Who's claiming that VGchartz is more accurate than NPD?

cows do when the numbers go their way. other than that no one.
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HarlockJC

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#13 HarlockJC
Member since 2006 • 25546 Posts
There was a link posted not to long ago where I think it was someone from Capcom stated even the NPD was off. He said it was like at least 30% off most of the time.
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SolidTy

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#14 SolidTy
Member since 2005 • 49991 Posts

There was a link posted not to long ago where I think it was someone from Capcom stated even the NPD was off. He said it was like at least 30% off most of the time. HarlockJC

I've heard that a few times over the years, in fact, SEGA just said the same thing recently.

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surrealnumber5

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#15 surrealnumber5
Member since 2008 • 23044 Posts
There was a link posted not to long ago where I think it was someone from Capcom stated even the NPD was off. He said it was like at least 30% off most of the time. HarlockJC
it was sega and they did not say their source. i ASSUME they are talking about their shipped numbers but who knows
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HarlockJC

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#16 HarlockJC
Member since 2006 • 25546 Posts
[QUOTE="HarlockJC"]There was a link posted not to long ago where I think it was someone from Capcom stated even the NPD was off. He said it was like at least 30% off most of the time. surrealnumber5
it was sega and they did not say their source. i ASSUME they are talking about their shipped numbers but who knows

I am sure if anyone knows it's the people who sell the games..... I stole this from somewhere else because I have been thinking the same for awhile but no one else said anything "It's actually pretty easy to prove that NPD's public data isn't completely trustworthy. They never publish corrections to their past data. This means that either: 1- Their data is always correct the first time (quite unlikely given they don't receive sales data from Walmart and other big retailers) 2- They simply forget about past errors and carry on (adding up several months will result in wrong data, as well as each month's data being sometimes wrong). 3- They adjust for past errors by adjusting later months' data. In this case it's not possible to trust each month's data, since it may be wrong or adjusted up or down to account for past mistakes. At least in this case the sum of several months should be more close to the truth. Take your pick, since we don't really know what they do. There's no transparency at all with NPD's numbers." Just something to think about
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HermitGTX

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#17 HermitGTX
Member since 2009 • 541 Posts

This thread has been a eye opener for all that see it and I'm sure things will change from now on.

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surrealnumber5

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#18 surrealnumber5
Member since 2008 • 23044 Posts

[QUOTE="surrealnumber5"][QUOTE="HarlockJC"]There was a link posted not to long ago where I think it was someone from Capcom stated even the NPD was off. He said it was like at least 30% off most of the time. HarlockJC
it was sega and they did not say their source. i ASSUME they are talking about their shipped numbers but who knows

I am sure if anyone knows it's the people who sell the games..... I stole this from somewhere else because I have been thinking the same for awhile but no one else said anything "It's actually pretty easy to prove that NPD's public data isn't completely trustworthy. They never publish corrections to their past data. This means that either: 1- Their data is always correct the first time (quite unlikely given they don't receive sales data from Walmart and other big retailers) 2- They simply forget about past errors and carry on (adding up several months will result in wrong data, as well as each month's data being sometimes wrong). 3- They adjust for past errors by adjusting later months' data. In this case it's not possible to trust each month's data, since it may be wrong or adjusted up or down to account for past mistakes. At least in this case the sum of several months should be more close to the truth. Take your pick, since we don't really know what they do. There's no transparency at all with NPD's numbers." Just something to think about

i would like to know where the comments came from and as i have posted in several places i am sure as professionals they wont go below a q2 or 95% correct rate and if that is what they are shooting for there would still be a 5% margin of error and statistical anomalies would still happen over time. the fact that they are willing to say we are wrong when they are and issue public statements about their corrections says more about their operation, then say... VGchartz. every big error i have seen from the NPD group has been stated as such, a mislabeling or what have you.

publishers know what is ordered and they fill those orders, unless they are selling direct to the consumers there is no need for them to know the sell through rate. IF sega is trying to track sell through rates i would love to be a consultant for them and get 5-10% of their per year savings for the next five years by telling them how unimportant that is to them. distributors of goods dont need to know who the end user is, thats not their consumer.