Who will win the 2020 US Presidential election?

I'll take anyone but Trump. Even joe the plumber.

My guess will be a 290 - 248 Biden victory. 52% - 46% Popular vote spread.

With all of the internal and public polling data I have seen in solid r and competitive states in this election I think biden will get a lot more than 330 EC votes in about two weeks.

I don't think it matters, regardless of the result trump will try and stay and declare the election was rigged. More fun ahead.

Want to bet on that? Because you should probably know right now polls are weighted to match a desired outcome. With early voting either tied or favoring Republicans in states like Michigan and PA, both Trump won in 2016, and both Biden need, and the significant amount of NEW voters entered into the rolls in Florida over Democrats shows Trump won't be losing any of the major states he won previously. Where those polls are coming from, straight up, are either inaccurate, or lying to you. You should know that after 2016. Will you still believe them in 2024 when they are proven wrong again I wonder?

You are going to be so disappointed in two weeks.

Why would fox news rig polls against trump? Are you suggesting that Fox news are only pretending to like trump?

Fox News isn't the far right news source you think it is. They were very anti-Trump in 2016, favoring Jeb and other establishment Republicans. You get one or two on that network that may be fans of his, but overall, not really. So I do find it funny when people like you cite Fox News as if a lot of people on my side of the things actually watch it. Secondly, a lot of Trump supporters just won't answer polls, no matter who is asking. The polls are consistently wrong for many factors, but there are many factors to indicate how a state is going to vote that rely on actual data, and not subjective polling.

For example, do you debate the fact Democrats historically do better in early voting and absentee? And that Trump supporters are less likely to fear Covid, and more likely to vote on election day? If so, then the fact Republicans are tied or leading in early voting in MI and PA should tell you Biden isn't going to get the early lead he absolutely needs. Furthermore, Trumps support amongst Hispanics in Florida was 35% in 2016. That's gone up. And while democrats were able to add more voters to the registration in florida in 2016 by a decent amount, the amount of new voter registration for Republcians is nearly double that of democrats. That means once polls close on November 3rd, you're going to find Trump in a pretty sizeable lead.

So... if all you want to do is focus on polls which were dead wrong in 2016, and ignore all the evidence that actually was accurate in predicting the 2016 election, so be it. Just don't say I didn't tell you so when Biden loses.

All of this just sounds like wishful thinking, but I guess we will find out in a couple of weeks.

Yeah, as I said, don't say I didn't tell you so. And when it turns out I am right, I hope you understand it's not because the mainstream media is inept, but intentionally dishonest and misleading.

@eoten: Only Cubans, you know that. You also know the registration is just a realignment of already established voting trends. Meaning the Republicans most likely just got the last of conservative Democrats.

Logic indicates we don’t know how this will turn out and it’s stupid to claim we do.

I was not just talking about public polls in the post you quoted. The same polls you trashed especially at the congressional level showed trump gaining monentum in the last few weeks of that election. Many public and internal congressional districts polls in places like IN-05, PA-10(If I recall), MO-2,TX-3, MI-3, TX-22,TX-24 etc show trump doing anywere from 5-15 points worse than 2016 at the moment. I am not going to talk about some of the other downballot stuff I have seen in texas, georgia, pennsylvania, montana, kansas, west virigina, south carolina and florida. Everything I have seen paints a very grim picture for trump. Trump is on track to bleed votes heavily everywere besides maybe Wyoming and Arkansas at this point and win somewhere between 18 and 20 states if my math is correct. It's possible(but rare) for a candidate down 2 or 3 points to win an election but when that same candidate is down 10 points and is doing significantly worse than 2016 in many of the same places they easily won in that election it is almost impossible for them to win unless their opponent makes a bunch of fatal mistakes.I have watched elections were the latter happened before. In these elections the opposition had a solid lead going into election day and then they made a bunch of fatal mistakes close to the end of those election campaigns. and people at the ballot box decided to vote for the governing party again.

@eoten: Actually Democrats lead in Pennsylvania and those “new voters” are just a realignment of established voting trends. Democrats still hold the lead.

@thegreatchomp: Early voting is at a high though.

@LJS9502_basic: Ok?

@zaryia: “I hope it’s Joe. Joe is such a nice guy. He has been in politics for 50 years. We would be better with him.”

LOL

I think that the silent majority will vote for Trump.

They didn't last election so I'm not sure why they would after his disastrous term.

They did 306 vs 232

Also the 2% difference in votes was a product of fraud on the vote counting process (yes leftist are that bad)

Not disastrous term at all in my book, to be honest I am more excited this time to vote for Trump.

EC is not the popular vote which you are advocating in the original post dude.

The EC will match the PV this time. Trump has a shot at losing by the biggest margin in 32 years in the Electoral college at this point. Also trump is draining votes in safe red states at the moment

Sucks we have this electoral college nonsense, where the whole process focuses on certain states and favors republicans. Its a bad system. Also you could have only one person in a state and he still gets the same number of senators. And, all the gerrymandering of the repubs. Then, you have Trump contesting mail in. Sheesh, what is all this?

Republican's already have to make up a big deficit in electoral votes because of California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey right off the bat. It only becomes an issue when the Democrats lose.

People have disliked the electoral college for a long time.

Did you know that people wanted to abolish it even back in the 70s?

https://www.history.com/news/electoral-college-nearly-abolished-thurmond

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/politics/russian-hackers-election-data/index.html

I wonder what they got? Hmmmmmm