What are the odds of having two, one-term presidents in a row?

So we are we're getting pretty close to six months of Biden's average polls being underwater and not that dissimilar from Trump's at the same time period if you look at RCP and 538, screenshots included below. You would have to go back to Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter to see two one term presidents in a row, but Ford wasn't the choice of the voters in the first place unlike this current example of one Trump term and one Biden. Looking back, there really isn't a recent example of voters choosing one party, switching in the next four years to the opposing party, and then swing back again in the next four, buuuut people really don't seem to care for Biden, regardless of what happens. Maybe Biden can turn it around for himself, maybe time will show that people are relatively neutral to vaguely positive of his more boring style of presidency, hell, maybe he will let Harris take over and choose not to run again (I doubt this one), but I'm not really counting on it. My gut says he will run again, and mostly thanks to gerrymandering, Biden will lose.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo

@Serraph105: people have short memories. If covid is mostly gone by 2024(and with it 90% of the ancillary issues driving approval ratings) i don't think we will flip parties in the white house. It also depends on who runs on the republican ticket.

Trump will absolutely be running in the primaries, and unless something major changes, be on the ticket for republicans in the General.

@Serraph105: Think so?

I think some things will have caught up to him by then. Also the GOP doesn't really want him to be their candidate.

@mattbbpl: Yeah I really do. No one holds a grip on the GOP like Trump does, and that's after being impeached twice and doing things that should just be automatically disqualifying for anyone to become president.

I'd be surprised if Biden is able to complete one term. Lol

I'd say it's pretty likely. Biden won by hanging back and letting Trump defeat himself, and that strategy only works when you're not the one in charge.

He has a shot if COVID related problems calm down in the next few years, but even then, it will be an uphill battle. I even think Trump might have a chance.

@judaspete: if covid is a thing of the past, he'll won easily. If not a win would be near impossible. There is more of a split in the republican party than conservatives want to admit. Go with Trump and they lose independents and the more center people in the party.... don't go with Trump and Trump will make sure you lose the magas. It is gonna be very interesting for sure.

Odds are better than they were a decade ago. The new landscape is one of politicization with very little wiggle room from approval floors to ceilings. Big deciders in 2024 will be COVID, the state of the economy (or sentiment at least), and how much more voter suppression the GOP is able to employ at the state level. It'll also be affected by the GOP nomination, which until otherwise, Trump is still the front runner.

I agree, I think the "establishment" GOP doesn't want Trump and the cult-of-celebrity GOP that Trump spawned--the Taylor-Greene's, the Gaetz's, etc--in their party.

They see the way things are going and realize that their policies are unpopular. Trump was a band-aid solution and helped them out but they realize their issues go far deeper than that, and another Trump or Trump-like president is bad for them.

That's what I hope, at least.

Biden's campaign was anything but passive. Keep in mind that Trump got more votes than any other president in history (other than Biden, of course).

Biden and the democrats campaigned very, very, very hard for that win. I think the Dems knows the stakes for 2024.

Biden Will loose unless trump runs.

He is not in good enough health state to be the president.

Only trump can help biden wins like he did last time.

If he runs again he will mobilize all the anti trump crowd.

Trump gets his 2nd term 2024. Unless he decides not to run, then it'll be whoever runs against Biden.

I think the fundamentals end up favouring Biden in 2024 assuming he runs again. I think he does noticeable better than 2020.

Joe Biden is suddenly not going to be cognitive and intelligent. He is only going to get worse. Covid are not his only problems he created which are affecting the public. Inflation, national crime wave, immigration, declaring parents terrorists, and energy independence. He is directly responsible for all of that except Covid. The people will not forget his mandates that cost people jobs. The same people who got the country through the pandemic when there was no vaccine. Right now 51% of Democrats do not want Joe Biden to run for president. It get even worse when you factor in indeppendents.

If you're complaining about cognition and intelligence then you boy trump is out.

Next to zero. One thing the 2016 polling told us is that polling should not be used to determine the outcome of a presidential election, despite how accurate polling generally is, because when it comes down to it, people might not love Joe Biden, but they really don't like Donald Trump. Things can turn very fast.

Trump can come back, Joe Biden can't.

lol what does that even mean? That Trump lost his cognition and intelligence a long time ago, but you believe there may be a chance he can get it back so you're going to hope that he will and give him back control of an entire country?

There are other republican candidates that are sane that could feasibly be the president.

Stop electing 70+yo people to the highest office. I really hope 2024 isn't a contest between 2 candidates who are older than 98% of the population.

They're all hated.

In an ideal world, we'd be seeing mass resignations. People can see they're all in it for themselves.

I think the chances are very high. Biden is far too old to run a second term.

Why mass resignations? If people want better politicians, it starts at a local level.

That's taking too long as well. Because, even though people are so dissatisfied with most of them, the mainstream media that is controlled by the same establishment that owns these politicians, hardly talks about the real rot in the system, the legal corruption, and makes the people think these are their best options. So they keep electing the same scum as they're made to believe true progressives are unrealistic choices. When we do get someone like that, there's a high chance they'll be bought anyway, an example being everyone over the last twenty years who ran on lowering drug prices and then did a 180 once they were in office.

American citizen have put themselves in a position where they will have it difficult to protest or show support for something, but again start at the local level. It will take time, it took a long time to dig this hole as deep as it is. It won't be fixed over night. AOC seems like she got her hearth in the right place, but that is only one politician. Find more politicians like her.

Also things can happen at higher levels as well. Isn't there a lot of talk about banning stock trading for people of congress and their spouses/anyone living under their roof too? That could help.

Also hopefully the SC won't work against the people.

I don't think you were listening to him. Media pretty much dictates who even makes it to general elections. They have too much power to influence elections that go above and beyond any amount of funding. Do you really think Joe Biden was the best candidate available? Do you think the majority of Democrats wanted him over other options? No, but that's when the media comes out to attack his opponents, and prop him up as the only "electable" candidate up there. Sending the message that if Biden doesn't win the primary, Trump wins.

You can start local, but local will only ever remain local. State legislatures and the governor have way more influence over what happens to your county, city, and life as a whole than mayors and city legislatures are going to. Media ensures that any quality candidate you may find locally, remains local, and largely powerless.

AOC has her heart in the right place? Don't make me laugh. She's as corrupt, manipulative, and dishonest as the rest and a 5 minute investigation into her outside of leftwing media whitewashing would show you that. Taking photos outside an empty fence then claiming there were thousands of caged children behind it? Claiming some crazy rioter broke into her office screaming for her during 1/6? Didn't happen. Claimed she grew up poor in the ghetto while her father was actually a well off architect and they actually lived in the wealthy suburbs of Yorktown Heights?... Just another lie. Lies you believed because the media won't cover them.

Well, big pharma are the largest financial backers of legacy media and legacy media essentially picks and choose who is "electable" and therefor, who will win the primaries, it's pretty safe to say anyone who legitimately wants to do anything about the big pharma problem in this country will have zero chance to do it. Drug prices will not be lowered, and the only reason they want to pass some kind of national healthcare program is not to benefit the people, but to write big pharma a blank check paid for by the taxpayer.

Well TBF the media harping on emails a month before elections helped trump tremendously.

Did they harp on them? The emails were bigger news online. Media felt a need to pretend they were covering it honestly and ultimately white washed the vast majority of the contents of those emails. Ran with the story that it was just messages about her grand children and bullshit like that. Just like they're trying to bury a crime far bigger than Nixon's as we speak.

Even though it was a non-story they brought it up. Are you playing victim?

@eoten: Couple of recent elected Republicans would never have it this far if people took notice in their more local elections.

You’re some of those upset about AOC growing up in a house…?

From what I understand/remember, AOC was going to hold a vote on some type of stock trading ban through an alternate channel and then Nancy Pelosi, alarmed, promised to hold a different vote for a similar bill that presumably won't be as harsh, so that AOC would back down. I'm simplifying a lot, but it seemed like a good maneuver.

What the hell are you even talking about? She lied about her path, to garner sympathy, and collect votes. She's as dishonest and manipulative as anyone else in congress. You're only high on her BS like many others because the media refuse to call her on her bullshit, or cover anything about her without a clear skew.

While stock trading should be stopped for Congress, AOC needs to work within the system. All fighting does is weaken the party and then we get more Republicans in Congress and from their behavior the last few years, we need less not more of them.

I disagree. If you don't play dirty once in a while, nothing gets done, because they're almost all corrupt. The majority of them want to keep doing insider trading.

All she's doing is dividing the party which makes it easier for Republicans to win. Most Democrats are moderates FYI. Not progressives. You get the government you deserve.

Why are you telling me most Dems are moderates? When did I imply most of them are progressives? All I was getting at is that they're not representing the will of the people who vote for them. The majority on both sides want insider trading banned. Even businesses have laws against that kind of stuff.

The Republicans will win anyway, because the Democrats are weak and ineffective. They should have put more pressure on Manchin and Sinema and not voted for the Infrastructure bill separately. The whole civility and decorum doesn't work when there are so many rotten apples.

AOC wasn't voted in by the majority. If most Democrats are moderate, then she represents the minority of the party.

Something like two thirds of Americans want insider trading banned. The majority on both sides. So yes, she does represent the majority on this.

You know Congress disproportionately represents corporations and billionaires over regular Americans.

I'm not talking about one specific issue.

This is an interesting topic, not sure why it's not higher up?

OT: Who knows?!? lol, no one, I wager.

Regardless of who is running, one thing is for sure. It's the economy, stupid! If the economy is doing well -- the the incumbent president/party will have a better chance to win re-election. But it's not a guarantee.

If somehow the GOP can run a non-polarizing candidate. They're half-way there.

Well I did post it a month ago. Probably has a lot to do with it.

That said, it still seems like Trump is going to be the one running, and I sort of think he's the one guaranteed candidate that Biden can continue to win against.

@Stevo_the_gamer: I fell like that’s really a misnomer. He’ll be fine he’s surrounded by some of the smartest doctors the world has to offer.

Let's not necro bump old threads.

@outworld222: Oh, I know it's Weekend at the Bernie's at the White House with Biden. :P