@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:
Well, the actual payment is 19 billion, but that is before the rebate which brings it down to 13billion. And with the payment coming from EU, it´s currently at 8 billion or around 275million a week. It´s worth noting that if you look at 2008, the UK for every £2 paid they got around £1.74 back, which is in 2013 £0.75 for every £2 In 2018 it´s far less and in the future the cost for the UK will be far more, most of the member states except a few are for an increase in payment and also a decrease in the rebate.
So if you work with the estimated "loss" you could also work with an estimated cost for the UK as to the EU, and remove the rebate or cut it in half, and the cost is suddenly far more and what UK receives from the EU is far less.
No, I don´t think the EU will freely give the UK access to the market without some kind of reciprocation, but at the same time especially Germany is benefiting a lot from access to the UK waters and also exports to the UK. So are Germany and France willing to suddenly lose a massive benefit to their own countries.
The EU and the clown president may play hardball in the press, but under the surface, they are trembling.
No. Simply no. The rebate is applied before they pay anything. Bringing the actual payment down to 13 billion. This is 2016 numbers.
UK had to agree to changes to how the rebate was calculated. EU couldn't change those terms on their own.
UK 's Office for budget Responsibility themselves seems to believe a weakening of about 15 billion in public finances a year in the early 2020's. IFS also states that so far it seems both in short and long terms, the Brexit will reduce funding for both NHS and other public services.
The EU is a far bigger economy, they can take a 15 billion hit a year much better than UK.
UK is looking at CPTPP with similar GDP as UK-less EU.
UK just won Australia's $35 billion dollar deal on nine Type 26 custom warships contract. The hulls are Australian made with design IP and engines to be UK in origin.
Using IMF 2018 GDP numbers
CPTTP has 11 Pacific ocean countries with $13.06 Trillion GDP market with Japan, Canada, Australia and Mexico as it's major economies.
South Korea joins CPTTP sometime in 2018.
UK is interested joining CPTTP after Brexit.
Including UK and SK into CPTPP results in $16 Trillion GDP economy with 619 million population.
EU's GDP minus UK has about $16.73 Trillion GDP market.
Australia, Canada, Malaysia, New Zealand, Brunei and Singapore are already part of British Commonwealth countries.
China has 14.09 Trillion GDP.
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Against Office for budget Responsibility themselves (fullfact.org)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/9976733/How-Leveson-was-denied-the-full-facts.html
Full Fact insists that it is Britain’s “only independent fact-checking organisation”.
However, examination of its fact-checks shows that several have subtle Left-wing bias and 80 per cent of its complaints to the PCC have been against Right-wing newspapers. It has made five complaints against The Daily Telegraph.
Its directors at the time of the Leveson Inquiry were two Labour peers, a Liberal Democrat peer, and a Labour-supporting journalist, as well as a man who gave money to the Conservative Party in 2009.
During last year’s mayoral election, Full Fact endorsed a number of demonstrably false claims by the Labour candidate, Ken Livingstone, including his key campaign message that his proposed 7 per cent transport fare cut would “save Londoners on average £1,000 over four years”. Full Fact described this claim as “sound and well-sourced”.
https://fullfact.org/blog/2017/jun/awarded-500000-omidyar-network-open-society-foundations-automated-factchecking/
Fullfact.org is funded by George Soros (US) interfering into another country's affairs.
George Soros NGOs was kicked out or in the process being kicking out of Hungry (not welcome), Israel (not welcome), Philippines (President declares death penalty for Soros), Italy (blocking Soros NGO funded refugee ships), Czech Republic (not welcome), Singapore (not welcome), Poland (not welcome), Malaysia (not welcome) and Russia (not welcome). China bans George Soros NGOs.
Singapore's government declares Soros NGO bans http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2142699/george-soros-who-why-singapore-no-hungary
Australian Federal government has introduced foreign funds ban with political activities i.e. stops both China and Soros funds and their related influence.
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