Trump suggested to Macron that France should leave the EU

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deeliman

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#1 deeliman
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President Trump reportedly asked French President Emmanuel Macron why he does not withdraw his country from the European Union (E.U.) and suggested that the U.S. could offer France a bilateral trade deal if he did so.

According to a reported column published by The Washington Post on Thursday, Trump floated the idea of France's withdrawal from the E.U. to Macron while the French president was visiting the White House in April.

"Why don’t you leave the E.U.?" Trump reportedly asked.

He then offered to extend a bilateral trade deal to France with better terms than those given to the E.U. if Macron did withdraw from the union, The Post's Josh Rogin reported.

The White House declined to give comment to The Post on the reported interaction between Trump and Macron, but did not dispute the account.

Macron is highly unlikely to withdraw from the E.U. and France remains one of the union's key member states. But the reported episode is reflective of Trump's skepticism of international organizations and alliances more broadly.

As a presidential candidate and since taking office, Trump has questioned the United States' membership in NATO, withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and threatened to leave the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

He has instead touted "America first" policies and insisted that the U.S. has long been taken advantage of by adversaries and allies alike.

At the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in Canada earlier this month, for example, Trump warned some of Washington's closest allies that they could lose access to U.S. markets unless they drastically reduced trade barriers on American companies, goods and services.

[Speech 25] We face a unique array of challenges, and we should work together.

[Speech 75] Our trade agreement is terrible and needs to be fixed!

--->[Speech 100] You should totally leave the EU!

Speech Attempt Failed.

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nintendoboy16

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#2 nintendoboy16
Member since 2007 • 41489 Posts

If Macron keeps his word, then good! Meanwhile in the UK, Brexit is now in law. Meaning:

-British economy gets worse

-Fears of the hypothetical "Second Troubles" rise with both sides of the Irish (Republicans and Northerners)

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#3  Edited By LordQuorthon
Member since 2008 • 5803 Posts

If Trump and the powers that be that he serves want the EU to crumble, the EU will eventually crumble, unless something extraordinary happens.

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Jacanuk

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#4 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@nintendoboy16 said:

If Macron keeps his word, then good! Meanwhile in the UK, Brexit is now in law. Meaning:

-British economy gets worse

-Fears of the hypothetical "Second Troubles" rise with both sides of the Irish (Republicans and Northerners)

Meanwhile in the real world nothing you said here is a fact.

You mean you assume the economy gets worse and you assume that your narrow view of why the UK left the EU is correct.

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#5 Jacanuk
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@deeliman: EU is a disgrace and it should go back to be just about a trade union and not an attempt to make a European united state.

But if Trump thinks Macro "little Napoleon" will let go of the influence and power he can get over the entire EU, he doesn´t have a clue about France.

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#6  Edited By mrbojangles25
Member since 2005 • 58159 Posts

Frexit?

You heard it here first, folks...

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nintendoboy16

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#7  Edited By nintendoboy16
Member since 2007 • 41489 Posts
@Jacanuk said:
@nintendoboy16 said:

If Macron keeps his word, then good! Meanwhile in the UK, Brexit is now in law. Meaning:

-British economy gets worse

-Fears of the hypothetical "Second Troubles" rise with both sides of the Irish (Republicans and Northerners)

Meanwhile in the real world nothing you said here is a fact.

You mean you assume the economy gets worse and you assume that your narrow view of why the UK left the EU is correct.

The British Pound drops again in it's worst quarter since the Brexit vote. So don't tell me the British economy isn't hurting, when it is.

And the Irish do too have fears. Especially when the Republic of Ireland share a border with Britain via Northern Ireland. They fear border tensions will rise again, which was, again, part of the Troubles. Even the hypocrites in Sinn Fein (aka the Irish Republican Army's Political Wing) are moaning about it.

I get why the UK voted to leave EU, but in the long run, it screwed them over.

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#8 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@nintendoboy16 said:
@Jacanuk said:
@nintendoboy16 said:

If Macron keeps his word, then good! Meanwhile in the UK, Brexit is now in law. Meaning:

-British economy gets worse

-Fears of the hypothetical "Second Troubles" rise with both sides of the Irish (Republicans and Northerners)

Meanwhile in the real world nothing you said here is a fact.

You mean you assume the economy gets worse and you assume that your narrow view of why the UK left the EU is correct.

The British Pound drops again in it's worst quarter since the Brexit vote. So don't tell me the British economy isn't hurting, when it is.

And the Irish do too have fears. Especially when the Republic of Ireland share a border with Britain via Northern Ireland. They fear border tensions will rise again, which was, again, part of the Troubles. Even the hypocrites in Sinn Fein (aka the Irish Republican Army's Political Wing) are moaning about it.

I get why the UK voted to leave EU, but in the long run, it screwed them over.

The pound is down which is actually not the same as the economy is doing bad, in fact, the economy can benefit more from a lower pound than high. And as to the Irish, they just need to keep quiet and accept that Northern Ireland is part of the UK and as to the IRA, it´s a disgrace that terrorists have been able to turn mainstream.

And yup I get why the UK voted to get out and like Norway, they will do fine, the problem is just until the actual leave date, the tensions are running high and that is not a stabilization factor, which is why the pound is not back at it´s former glory.

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Baconstrip78

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#9  Edited By Baconstrip78
Member since 2013 • 1851 Posts

@Jacanuk: I’m not sure how you can look at their economic indicators as anything other than bad. U.K. which is trending lower than the rest of the G7 in gdp after being at the top and were running at .5% inflation but now is around 3%. OBR expects gdp to fall to 2008-2009 recession levels next year....but yeah, keep acting like everything is going great since they “kicked out dem mooslims “.

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#10  Edited By Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 36038 Posts

So basically Trump is trying to upset the established order and create chaos in the world.

That's either your hero speaking or literally the fucking joker.

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#11 bigfootpart2
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@Serraph105 said:

So basically Trump is trying to upset the established order and create chaos in the world.

That's either your hero speaking or literally the fucking joker.

Putin wants to upset the established order and create chaos. Trump is merely his puppet.

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deactivated-6068afec1b77d

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#12 deactivated-6068afec1b77d
Member since 2017 • 2539 Posts

Now, in Europe there are these egomanic wanna-be trumps thinking he's some savior.

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deactivated-5f3ec00254b0d

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#13 deactivated-5f3ec00254b0d
Member since 2009 • 6278 Posts

It's not surprising that both Trump and Putin share the dream of a collapsed EU. Which is funny considering they are both leaders nations that are a union of states.

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#14 MirkoS77
Member since 2011 • 17640 Posts

@Jacanuk: looks like Trump’s juvenile names are rubbing off on his supporters.

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#15 mandzilla  Moderator
Member since 2017 • 4686 Posts

Not surprising really. This reminds me of the time Merkel had to explain the fundamentals of EU trade to Trump 11 times, when he wanted to do a separate deal with Germany. Even after all that he still didn't get it.

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#16 deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51
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Trump is pushing Russia's agenda.

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#17  Edited By horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 127492 Posts

@Jacanuk said:
@nintendoboy16 said:

If Macron keeps his word, then good! Meanwhile in the UK, Brexit is now in law. Meaning:

-British economy gets worse

-Fears of the hypothetical "Second Troubles" rise with both sides of the Irish (Republicans and Northerners)

Meanwhile in the real world nothing you said here is a fact.

You mean you assume the economy gets worse and you assume that your narrow view of why the UK left the EU is correct.

The loss in taxes so far is greater than the cost of the EU membership for UK...

Couple of (3 sources, GS formatting messes it up) sources

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#18 mandzilla  Moderator
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@Jacanuk: Hey don't underestimate how big a sticking point the Irish border issue is, or how massive the backlash against the Conservative UK government - DUP coalition tearing up the good friday agreement could be. Northern Ireland voted against brexit, and has demographically been heading towards a referendum on Irish reunification for a while now.

Between them and Scotland, I'd put money on the UK breaking up long before the EU does.

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#19 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@Baconstrip78 said:

@Jacanuk: I’m not sure how you can look at their economic indicators as anything other than bad. U.K. which is trending lower than the rest of the G7 in gdp after being at the top and were running at .5% inflation but now is around 3%. OBR expects gdp to fall to 2008-2009 recession levels next year....but yeah, keep acting like everything is going great since they “kicked out dem mooslims “.

So far all the indicators show a growth, the problem though is until UK actually leaves the EU and the consequences start to show, there is no way of predicting accurately how the UK economy fairs, so far though there is a growth, not as strong as before the Referendum, but still a growth and unemployment is still going down.

@mandzilla said:

@Jacanuk: Hey don't underestimate how big a sticking point the Irish border issue is, or how massive the backlash against the Conservative UK government - DUP coalition tearing up the good friday agreement could be. Northern Ireland voted against brexit, and has demographically been heading towards a referendum on Irish reunification for a while now.

Between them and Scotland, I'd put money on the UK breaking up long before the EU does.

Northern-Ireland will never go back to Catholic Ireland, and if you think that happens, you need to read up on the significance of the separation. and also go read up on the 73 referenda. So no the UK won´t split up before the EU, EU will be dust in the wind before Scotland ever leaves. They already had their chance and voted to stay.

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#20 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:
@nintendoboy16 said:

If Macron keeps his word, then good! Meanwhile in the UK, Brexit is now in law. Meaning:

-British economy gets worse

-Fears of the hypothetical "Second Troubles" rise with both sides of the Irish (Republicans and Northerners)

Meanwhile in the real world nothing you said here is a fact.

You mean you assume the economy gets worse and you assume that your narrow view of why the UK left the EU is correct.

The loss in taxes so far is greater than the cost of the EU membership for UK...

Couple of (3 sources, GS formatting messes it up) sources

Hmm, the last source is from the EU, so questionable.

But it´s all predictions, and most come from stay supporters.

It´s like with people saying a Trump win would destroy the economy and give us a recession never seen before,

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#21 LJS9502_basic
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@LordQuorthon said:

If Trump and the powers that be that he serves want the EU to crumble, the EU will eventually crumble, unless something extraordinary happens.

Trump is going to damage the US. He cannot damage the EU. That has to come from within. Also he's not the powers that be. He's an international joke.

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#22  Edited By mandzilla  Moderator
Member since 2017 • 4686 Posts
@Jacanuk said:
@mandzilla said:

@Jacanuk: Hey don't underestimate how big a sticking point the Irish border issue is, or how massive the backlash against the Conservative UK government - DUP coalition tearing up the good friday agreement could be. Northern Ireland voted against brexit, and has demographically been heading towards a referendum on Irish reunification for a while now.

Between them and Scotland, I'd put money on the UK breaking up long before the EU does.

Northern-Ireland will never go back to Catholic Ireland, and if you think that happens, you need to read up on the significance of the separation. and also go read up on the 73 referenda. So no the UK won´t split up before the EU, EU will be dust in the wind before Scotland ever leaves. They already had their chance and voted to stay.

Religion isn't really a big issue in this imo. Besides, this year alone has shown that the influence of the Catholic church in Ireland is a shadow of what it once was. Rather, I'd say the urge to pursue independence from the UK, from an Irish perspective would be driven more by economic factors, as well as a desire to respect the Good Friday Agreement. Nobody wants a return to the troubles, and it's quite extraordinary that this was not considered or discussed in any depth during the Brexit campaign.

Add to this the issue of devolved powers traditionally afforded to the Northern Irish, Welsh and Scottish governments under threat of being curtailed currently, and it's no surprise that there are grumblings in different parts of the UK concerning Brexit. The next Scottish referendum is practically guaranteed at this point. A lot of Scots voted no to independence, after being promised that it was the only way to remain within the EU. Now that the situation has changed, and 62% of Scotland voted to remain in the EU, the SNP have a strong mandate to hold another vote on leaving the rest of us here in the UK, and I wouldn't blame them if they did honestly.

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#23 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 178810 Posts

@sonicare said:

Trump is pushing Russia's agenda.

Yep. Putin has something on him.

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#24 Jacanuk
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@mandzilla said:
@Jacanuk said:
@mandzilla said:

@Jacanuk: Hey don't underestimate how big a sticking point the Irish border issue is, or how massive the backlash against the Conservative UK government - DUP coalition tearing up the good friday agreement could be. Northern Ireland voted against brexit, and has demographically been heading towards a referendum on Irish reunification for a while now.

Between them and Scotland, I'd put money on the UK breaking up long before the EU does.

Northern-Ireland will never go back to Catholic Ireland, and if you think that happens, you need to read up on the significance of the separation. and also go read up on the 73 referenda. So no the UK won´t split up before the EU, EU will be dust in the wind before Scotland ever leaves. They already had their chance and voted to stay.

Religion isn't really a big issue in this imo. Besides, this year alone has shown that the influence of the Catholic church in Ireland is a shadow of what it once was. Rather, I'd say the urge to pursue independence from the UK, from an Irish perspective would be driven more by economic factors, as well as a desire to respect the Good Friday Agreement. Nobody wants a return to the troubles, and it's quite extraordinary that this was not considered or discussed in any depth during the Brexit campaign.

Add to this the issue of devolved powers traditionally afforded to the Northern Irish, Welsh and Scottish governments under threat of being curtailed currently, and it's no surprise that there are grumblings in different parts of the UK concerning Brexit. The next Scottish referendum is practically guaranteed at this point. A lot of Scots voted no to independence, after being promised that it was the only way to remain within the EU. Now that the situation has changed, and 62% of Scotland voted to remain in the EU, the SNP have a strong mandate to hold another vote on leaving the rest of us here in the UK, and I wouldn't blame them if they did honestly.

As to religion, you misjudge the situation there. Go read the recent report by Nolan, who points out that in a few years the majority will be Catholic and that will make it so that a unification is no longer an if but when. But with the recent power change in the UK and the influence DUP has gotten, i doubt you will see any real talk about unification until after UK have left and then it´s a whole other ballgame since they are no longer working on predictions alone but can slowly begin to see actual effects from the leaving.

As to Scotland, well unless they can get a guarantee from EU that they can join if they leave, that bear is not shot yet and it´s highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to skip the normal process and it will take decades of "independence" before they can actually be part of the EU. Also considering the last election which decimated the Scottish party, it´s clear that the Scottish people are with the UK.

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#25 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 178810 Posts

@Jacanuk said:

As to religion, you misjudge the situation there. Go read the recent report by Nolan, who points out that in a few years the majority will be Catholic and that will make it so that a unification is no longer an if but when. But with the recent power change in the UK and the influence DUP has gotten, i doubt you will see any real talk about unification until after UK have left and then it´s a whole other ballgame since they are no longer working on predictions alone but can slowly begin to see actual effects from the leaving.

As to Scotland, well unless they can get a guarantee from EU that they can join if they leave, that bear is not shot yet and it´s highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to skip the normal process and it will take decades of "independence" before they can actually be part of the EU. Also considering the last election which decimated the Scottish party, it´s clear that the Scottish people are with the UK.

Ireland is split politically. Religion was just a side part of schism. You should read up the history.

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#26 Jacanuk
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@LJS9502_basic said:
@Jacanuk said:

As to religion, you misjudge the situation there. Go read the recent report by Nolan, who points out that in a few years the majority will be Catholic and that will make it so that a unification is no longer an if but when. But with the recent power change in the UK and the influence DUP has gotten, i doubt you will see any real talk about unification until after UK have left and then it´s a whole other ballgame since they are no longer working on predictions alone but can slowly begin to see actual effects from the leaving.

As to Scotland, well unless they can get a guarantee from EU that they can join if they leave, that bear is not shot yet and it´s highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to skip the normal process and it will take decades of "independence" before they can actually be part of the EU. Also considering the last election which decimated the Scottish party, it´s clear that the Scottish people are with the UK.

Ireland is split politically. Religion was just a side part of schism. You should read up the history.

Another failed attempt by you LJS, it´s getting kinda bad.

Religion is actually a major part of why Northern Ireland stayed with the UK and not joined Ireland.

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#27 horgen  Moderator
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@Jacanuk said:

Hmm, the last source is from the EU, so questionable.

But it´s all predictions, and most come from stay supporters.

It´s like with people saying a Trump win would destroy the economy and give us a recession never seen before,

Some of these things take time to become visible. And naturally, those who are in favour of Brexit won't report the actual cost. You got the cost of brexit calculator. Atm it says about £200M in lost growth each week. Other sources claims £300M a week. It will probably take a decade before we know the real cost of it anyway.

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#28 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:

Hmm, the last source is from the EU, so questionable.

But it´s all predictions, and most come from stay supporters.

It´s like with people saying a Trump win would destroy the economy and give us a recession never seen before,

Some of these things take time to become visible. And naturally, those who are in favour of Brexit won't report the actual cost. You got the cost of brexit calculator. Atm it says about £200M in lost growth each week. Other sources claims £300M a week. It will probably take a decade before we know the real cost of it anyway.

And UK pays EU £13 billion a year meaning that even if the growth "loss" is correct, the UK stands to gain £150mill a week. Even if other sources are correct and it´s 300 , it´s still a gain of 50mill.

Also, the UK has a golden opportunity, they don´t have to follow the EU´s trade war with the US , so that will be a potential gain.

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#29 mandzilla  Moderator
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@Jacanuk said:
@mandzilla said:
@Jacanuk said:
@mandzilla said:

@Jacanuk: Hey don't underestimate how big a sticking point the Irish border issue is, or how massive the backlash against the Conservative UK government - DUP coalition tearing up the good friday agreement could be. Northern Ireland voted against brexit, and has demographically been heading towards a referendum on Irish reunification for a while now.

Between them and Scotland, I'd put money on the UK breaking up long before the EU does.

Northern-Ireland will never go back to Catholic Ireland, and if you think that happens, you need to read up on the significance of the separation. and also go read up on the 73 referenda. So no the UK won´t split up before the EU, EU will be dust in the wind before Scotland ever leaves. They already had their chance and voted to stay.

Religion isn't really a big issue in this imo. Besides, this year alone has shown that the influence of the Catholic church in Ireland is a shadow of what it once was. Rather, I'd say the urge to pursue independence from the UK, from an Irish perspective would be driven more by economic factors, as well as a desire to respect the Good Friday Agreement. Nobody wants a return to the troubles, and it's quite extraordinary that this was not considered or discussed in any depth during the Brexit campaign.

Add to this the issue of devolved powers traditionally afforded to the Northern Irish, Welsh and Scottish governments under threat of being curtailed currently, and it's no surprise that there are grumblings in different parts of the UK concerning Brexit. The next Scottish referendum is practically guaranteed at this point. A lot of Scots voted no to independence, after being promised that it was the only way to remain within the EU. Now that the situation has changed, and 62% of Scotland voted to remain in the EU, the SNP have a strong mandate to hold another vote on leaving the rest of us here in the UK, and I wouldn't blame them if they did honestly.

As to religion, you misjudge the situation there. Go read the recent report by Nolan, who points out that in a few years the majority will be Catholic and that will make it so that a unification is no longer an if but when. But with the recent power change in the UK and the influence DUP has gotten, i doubt you will see any real talk about unification until after UK have left and then it´s a whole other ballgame since they are no longer working on predictions alone but can slowly begin to see actual effects from the leaving.

As to Scotland, well unless they can get a guarantee from EU that they can join if they leave, that bear is not shot yet and it´s highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to skip the normal process and it will take decades of "independence" before they can actually be part of the EU. Also considering the last election which decimated the Scottish party, it´s clear that the Scottish people are with the UK.

For sure religion is still a divisive factor in some people's lives, more so among the older generations. These days though, I'd say it's more accurate to acknowledge that nationalists and unionists are differentiated far more politically than religiously. It's not uncommon to have Protestant nationalists, or Catholic unionists in Belfast etc. The big problem with Northern Irish politics at the moment is that it doesn't even have a government in the national Stormont parliament. There hasn't been an executive there since January of last year. So it's not a case of the DUP being dominant in Northern Ireland, but rather the weakness of the Conservatives which has led to this frankenstein coalition. Basically Theresa May has violated the Good Friday Agreement to keep herself in power, and disregarded all the consequences of such a brash move. Yeah you may well be right, it might not happen for a number of years, though the ball is certainly now rolling in the direction of a potential Irish referendum.

Maybe so. There's been no official confirmation of fast-tracking a Scottish application to rejoin the EU so far, however it's not so far fetched that this could happen. Last year there were discussions among EU members where they agreed in principle that a united Ireland would be welcomed in as part of the Eurozone. Depending on how the negotiations go, I would not be surprised to see offers like this presented to Northern Ireland or Scotland. And don't forget Gibraltar also, where they voted to remain by 96%. The EU can be pretty ruthless in how they approach this situation, and just as there are many in the UK who would be happy to see the breakup of the EU, no doubt the reverse is also true. Plus I wouldn't say the SNP were decimated, they are still the largest party in Scotland by a wide margin, and support is on the rise again.

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#31  Edited By Baconstrip78
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@Jacanuk: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

Not sure how you can look at that trend as anything other than disasterous...

And again, their own government (OBR) is predicting it will get worse.

There is no way to spin this as a win. Literally the only argument you are allowed to make economically concerning the UKs rift from he EU is that the UK didn’t immediately slide into a recession as some fanatics had predicted.

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#32 horgen  Moderator
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@Jacanuk said:

And UK pays EU £13 billion a year meaning that even if the growth "loss" is correct, the UK stands to gain £150mill a week. Even if other sources are correct and it´s 300 , it´s still a gain of 50mill.

Also, the UK has a golden opportunity, they don´t have to follow the EU´s trade war with the US , so that will be a potential gain.

Oh I know UK paid like £350 mill a week. Still, the break-up has yet to happen. It certainly has potential to get a lot worse.

What is rarely mentioned is what UK get in return for being EU. As well as the £350 mill/weekly is before the rebate is applied. The rebate lowers the weekly payment to £250-275 mill/weekly. Just split your 13 billion number 52 and you end up in that range. 350 million weekly is with 19-20 billion yearly payment, which they would have had without the rebate. EU also spent around 5 billion on UK public services. Lowering UK actual costs to 8 billion(8,6 billion according to this source) or so a year. Or about £165 million/weekly.

Now suddenly the £200 million/weekly in less growth is also an actual loss after the actual payments and what UK in return.

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#33 horgen  Moderator
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@Baconstrip78 said:

@Jacanuk: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

Not sure how you can look at that trend as anything other than disasterous...

And again, their own government (OBR) is predicting it will get worse.

There is no way to spin this as a win. Literally the only argument you are allowed to make economically concerning the UKs rift from he EU is that the UK didn’t immediately slide into a recession as some fanatics had predicted.

Why should that happen overnight? It's not like anyone wants to erase the deals already in place over night.

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#34 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:

And UK pays EU £13 billion a year meaning that even if the growth "loss" is correct, the UK stands to gain £150mill a week. Even if other sources are correct and it´s 300 , it´s still a gain of 50mill.

Also, the UK has a golden opportunity, they don´t have to follow the EU´s trade war with the US , so that will be a potential gain.

Oh I know UK paid like £350 mill a week. Still, the break-up has yet to happen. It certainly has potential to get a lot worse.

What is rarely mentioned is what UK get in return for being EU. As well as the £350 mill/weekly is before the rebate is applied. The rebate lowers the weekly payment to £250-275 mill/weekly. Just split your 13 billion number 52 and you end up in that range. 350 million weekly is with 19-20 billion yearly payment, which they would have had without the rebate. EU also spent around 5 billion on UK public services. Lowering UK actual costs to 8 billion(8,6 billion according to this source) or so a year. Or about £165 million/weekly.

Now suddenly the £200 million/weekly in less growth is also an actual loss after the actual payments and what UK in return.

Yes the UK gets around 5 billion back from the EU, but the cost is still considerably higher for the UK than the gain by being in the EU.

And you are correct that if you calculate the return, the estimated "loss" in growth is higher than the income from not being in the EU, but it´s all guesswork and you know how business markets react to uncertainty.

But we will have to see, but I am betting that once the door has been closed and the UK is actually free from the "shithole" that is the EU, we will see a fast return to the growth and UK will be much stronger from not being in the EU.

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#35  Edited By Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@mandzilla said:
@Jacanuk said:
@mandzilla said:
@Jacanuk said:

Northern-Ireland will never go back to Catholic Ireland, and if you think that happens, you need to read up on the significance of the separation. and also go read up on the 73 referenda. So no the UK won´t split up before the EU, EU will be dust in the wind before Scotland ever leaves. They already had their chance and voted to stay.

Religion isn't really a big issue in this imo. Besides, this year alone has shown that the influence of the Catholic church in Ireland is a shadow of what it once was. Rather, I'd say the urge to pursue independence from the UK, from an Irish perspective would be driven more by economic factors, as well as a desire to respect the Good Friday Agreement. Nobody wants a return to the troubles, and it's quite extraordinary that this was not considered or discussed in any depth during the Brexit campaign.

Add to this the issue of devolved powers traditionally afforded to the Northern Irish, Welsh and Scottish governments under threat of being curtailed currently, and it's no surprise that there are grumblings in different parts of the UK concerning Brexit. The next Scottish referendum is practically guaranteed at this point. A lot of Scots voted no to independence, after being promised that it was the only way to remain within the EU. Now that the situation has changed, and 62% of Scotland voted to remain in the EU, the SNP have a strong mandate to hold another vote on leaving the rest of us here in the UK, and I wouldn't blame them if they did honestly.

As to religion, you misjudge the situation there. Go read the recent report by Nolan, who points out that in a few years the majority will be Catholic and that will make it so that a unification is no longer an if but when. But with the recent power change in the UK and the influence DUP has gotten, i doubt you will see any real talk about unification until after UK have left and then it´s a whole other ballgame since they are no longer working on predictions alone but can slowly begin to see actual effects from the leaving.

As to Scotland, well unless they can get a guarantee from EU that they can join if they leave, that bear is not shot yet and it´s highly unlikely that Scotland would be able to skip the normal process and it will take decades of "independence" before they can actually be part of the EU. Also considering the last election which decimated the Scottish party, it´s clear that the Scottish people are with the UK.

For sure religion is still a divisive factor in some people's lives, more so among the older generations. These days though, I'd say it's more accurate to acknowledge that nationalists and unionists are differentiated far more politically than religiously. It's not uncommon to have Protestant nationalists, or Catholic unionists in Belfast etc. The big problem with Northern Irish politics at the moment is that it doesn't even have a government in the national Stormont parliament. There hasn't been an executive there since January of last year. So it's not a case of the DUP being dominant in Northern Ireland, but rather the weakness of the Conservatives which has led to this frankenstein coalition. Basically Theresa May has violated the Good Friday Agreement to keep herself in power, and disregarded all the consequences of such a brash move. Yeah you may well be right, it might not happen for a number of years, though the ball is certainly now rolling in the direction of a potential Irish referendum.

Maybe so. There's been no official confirmation of fast-tracking a Scottish application to rejoin the EU so far, however it's not so far fetched that this could happen. Last year there were discussions among EU members where they agreed in principle that a united Ireland would be welcomed in as part of the Eurozone. Depending on how the negotiations go, I would not be surprised to see offers like this presented to Northern Ireland or Scotland. And don't forget Gibraltar also, where they voted to remain by 96%. The EU can be pretty ruthless in how they approach this situation, and just as there are many in the UK who would be happy to see the breakup of the EU, no doubt the reverse is also true. Plus I wouldn't say the SNP were decimated, they are still the largest party in Scotland by a wide margin, and support is on the rise again.

Not just a small divisive factor a major one, just look at the Orange march. The Protestants of Northen Ireland will never back down and will never agree to a unification and to be fair unless it´s a big majority it should also never happen. And I don´t agree that May violated the Good Friday Agreement, Britain is a democracy and Corbyn clearly would not be a good leader for anyone. So DUP actually made the best choice for Britain. Also, you think unionists would have done any different if they could support Corbyn. Nope of course not.

Yes, there has been no official confirmation and there never will be, who would be ok with Scotland jumping in front of the line if they get independence? you think Turkey will sit still and let something like that happen, The political ramifications would be catastrophic, especially since Scotland would enter as a huge deficit and a black hole for the EU. And which EU country would be ok with another burden. As to the SNP, well they went from 69 to 37, so they lost almost half of their members, I would say that is a decimation of the party and a clear sign that their independence agenda is not what the Scottish people want despite them voting to stay.

North Ireland is a bit different, Ireland is already a part of the EU and therefore they would not enter as an independent state, but merely a part of an existing member.

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#36  Edited By horgen  Moderator
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@Jacanuk said:

Yes the UK gets around 5 billion back from the EU, but the cost is still considerably higher for the UK than the gain by being in the EU.

And you are correct that if you calculate the return, the estimated "loss" in growth is higher than the income from not being in the EU, but it´s all guesswork and you know how business markets react to uncertainty.

But we will have to see, but I am betting that once the door has been closed and the UK is actually free from the "shithole" that is the EU, we will see a fast return to the growth and UK will be much stronger from not being in the EU.

Some 8 billion yes, not 13 or 19-20 as some would have you believe.

Secondly, they are already losing money because of this. More than what the EU membership cost them.

Thirdly, do you think EU will allow UK to the inner marked unless they pay into it and accept EU's terms? EU alone makes up half their trading.

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#37 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:

Yes the UK gets around 5 billion back from the EU, but the cost is still considerably higher for the UK than the gain by being in the EU.

And you are correct that if you calculate the return, the estimated "loss" in growth is higher than the income from not being in the EU, but it´s all guesswork and you know how business markets react to uncertainty.

But we will have to see, but I am betting that once the door has been closed and the UK is actually free from the "shithole" that is the EU, we will see a fast return to the growth and UK will be much stronger from not being in the EU.

Some 8 billion yes, not 13 or 19-20 as some would have you believe.

Secondly, they are already losing money because of this. More than what the EU membership cost them.

Thirdly, do you think EU will allow UK to the inner marked unless they pay into it and accept EU's terms? EU alone makes up half their trading.

Well, the actual payment is 19 billion, but that is before the rebate which brings it down to 13billion. And with the payment coming from EU, it´s currently at 8 billion or around 275million a week. It´s worth noting that if you look at 2008, the UK for every £2 paid they got around £1.74 back, which is in 2013 £0.75 for every £2 In 2018 it´s far less and in the future the cost for the UK will be far more, most of the member states except a few are for an increase in payment and also a decrease in the rebate.

So if you work with the estimated "loss" you could also work with an estimated cost for the UK as to the EU, and remove the rebate or cut it in half, and the cost is suddenly far more and what UK receives from the EU is far less.

No, I don´t think the EU will freely give the UK access to the market without some kind of reciprocation, but at the same time especially Germany is benefiting a lot from access to the UK waters and also exports to the UK. So are Germany and France willing to suddenly lose a massive benefit to their own countries.

The EU and the clown president may play hardball in the press, but under the surface, they are trembling.

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#38 LJS9502_basic
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@Jacanuk said:
@LJS9502_basic said:

Ireland is split politically. Religion was just a side part of schism. You should read up the history.

Another failed attempt by you LJS, it´s getting kinda bad.

Religion is actually a major part of why Northern Ireland stayed with the UK and not joined Ireland.

Wow you just continue showing your ignorance.

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#39 horgen  Moderator
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@Jacanuk said:

Well, the actual payment is 19 billion, but that is before the rebate which brings it down to 13billion. And with the payment coming from EU, it´s currently at 8 billion or around 275million a week. It´s worth noting that if you look at 2008, the UK for every £2 paid they got around £1.74 back, which is in 2013 £0.75 for every £2 In 2018 it´s far less and in the future the cost for the UK will be far more, most of the member states except a few are for an increase in payment and also a decrease in the rebate.

So if you work with the estimated "loss" you could also work with an estimated cost for the UK as to the EU, and remove the rebate or cut it in half, and the cost is suddenly far more and what UK receives from the EU is far less.

No, I don´t think the EU will freely give the UK access to the market without some kind of reciprocation, but at the same time especially Germany is benefiting a lot from access to the UK waters and also exports to the UK. So are Germany and France willing to suddenly lose a massive benefit to their own countries.

The EU and the clown president may play hardball in the press, but under the surface, they are trembling.

No. Simply no. The rebate is applied before they pay anything. Bringing the actual payment down to 13 billion. This is 2016 numbers.

UK had to agree to changes to how the rebate was calculated. EU couldn't change those terms on their own.

UK 's Office for budget Responsibility themselves seems to believe a weakening of about 15 billion in public finances a year in the early 2020's. IFS also states that so far it seems both in short and long terms, the Brexit will reduce funding for both NHS and other public services.

The EU is a far bigger economy, they can take a 15 billion hit a year much better than UK.

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#40  Edited By ronvalencia
Member since 2008 • 29612 Posts

@deeliman said:

Source

President Trump reportedly asked French President Emmanuel Macron why he does not withdraw his country from the European Union (E.U.) and suggested that the U.S. could offer France a bilateral trade deal if he did so.

According to a reported column published by The Washington Post on Thursday, Trump floated the idea of France's withdrawal from the E.U. to Macron while the French president was visiting the White House in April.

"Why don’t you leave the E.U.?" Trump reportedly asked.

He then offered to extend a bilateral trade deal to France with better terms than those given to the E.U. if Macron did withdraw from the union, The Post's Josh Rogin reported.

The White House declined to give comment to The Post on the reported interaction between Trump and Macron, but did not dispute the account.

Macron is highly unlikely to withdraw from the E.U. and France remains one of the union's key member states. But the reported episode is reflective of Trump's skepticism of international organizations and alliances more broadly.

As a presidential candidate and since taking office, Trump has questioned the United States' membership in NATO, withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and threatened to leave the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

He has instead touted "America first" policies and insisted that the U.S. has long been taken advantage of by adversaries and allies alike.

At the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in Canada earlier this month, for example, Trump warned some of Washington's closest allies that they could lose access to U.S. markets unless they drastically reduced trade barriers on American companies, goods and services.

[Speech 25] We face a unique array of challenges, and we should work together.

[Speech 75] Our trade agreement is terrible and needs to be fixed!

--->[Speech 100] You should totally leave the EU!

Speech Attempt Failed.

It wouldn't happen since Euro currency is more than a trade deal.

To beat the EU deal, France must have proportional control over executive functions and currency.

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#41  Edited By ronvalencia
Member since 2008 • 29612 Posts

@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:

Well, the actual payment is 19 billion, but that is before the rebate which brings it down to 13billion. And with the payment coming from EU, it´s currently at 8 billion or around 275million a week. It´s worth noting that if you look at 2008, the UK for every £2 paid they got around £1.74 back, which is in 2013 £0.75 for every £2 In 2018 it´s far less and in the future the cost for the UK will be far more, most of the member states except a few are for an increase in payment and also a decrease in the rebate.

So if you work with the estimated "loss" you could also work with an estimated cost for the UK as to the EU, and remove the rebate or cut it in half, and the cost is suddenly far more and what UK receives from the EU is far less.

No, I don´t think the EU will freely give the UK access to the market without some kind of reciprocation, but at the same time especially Germany is benefiting a lot from access to the UK waters and also exports to the UK. So are Germany and France willing to suddenly lose a massive benefit to their own countries.

The EU and the clown president may play hardball in the press, but under the surface, they are trembling.

No. Simply no. The rebate is applied before they pay anything. Bringing the actual payment down to 13 billion. This is 2016 numbers.

UK had to agree to changes to how the rebate was calculated. EU couldn't change those terms on their own.

UK 's Office for budget Responsibility themselves seems to believe a weakening of about 15 billion in public finances a year in the early 2020's. IFS also states that so far it seems both in short and long terms, the Brexit will reduce funding for both NHS and other public services.

The EU is a far bigger economy, they can take a 15 billion hit a year much better than UK.

UK is looking at CPTPP with similar GDP as UK-less EU.

UK just won Australia's $35 billion dollar deal on nine Type 26 custom warships contract. The hulls are Australian made with design IP and engines to be UK in origin.

Using IMF 2018 GDP numbers

CPTTP has 11 Pacific ocean countries with $13.06 Trillion GDP market with Japan, Canada, Australia and Mexico as it's major economies.

South Korea joins CPTTP sometime in 2018.

UK is interested joining CPTTP after Brexit.

Including UK and SK into CPTPP results in $16 Trillion GDP economy with 619 million population.

EU's GDP minus UK has about $16.73 Trillion GDP market.

Australia, Canada, Malaysia, New Zealand, Brunei and Singapore are already part of British Commonwealth countries.

China has 14.09 Trillion GDP.

---

Against Office for budget Responsibility themselves (fullfact.org)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/9976733/How-Leveson-was-denied-the-full-facts.html

Full Fact insists that it is Britain’s “only independent fact-checking organisation”.

However, examination of its fact-checks shows that several have subtle Left-wing bias and 80 per cent of its complaints to the PCC have been against Right-wing newspapers. It has made five complaints against The Daily Telegraph.

Its directors at the time of the Leveson Inquiry were two Labour peers, a Liberal Democrat peer, and a Labour-supporting journalist, as well as a man who gave money to the Conservative Party in 2009.

During last year’s mayoral election, Full Fact endorsed a number of demonstrably false claims by the Labour candidate, Ken Livingstone, including his key campaign message that his proposed 7 per cent transport fare cut would “save Londoners on average £1,000 over four years”. Full Fact described this claim as “sound and well-sourced”.

https://fullfact.org/blog/2017/jun/awarded-500000-omidyar-network-open-society-foundations-automated-factchecking/

Fullfact.org is funded by George Soros (US) interfering into another country's affairs.

George Soros NGOs was kicked out or in the process being kicking out of Hungry (not welcome), Israel (not welcome), Philippines (President declares death penalty for Soros), Italy (blocking Soros NGO funded refugee ships), Czech Republic (not welcome), Singapore (not welcome), Poland (not welcome), Malaysia (not welcome) and Russia (not welcome). China bans George Soros NGOs.

Singapore's government declares Soros NGO bans http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2142699/george-soros-who-why-singapore-no-hungary

Australian Federal government has introduced foreign funds ban with political activities i.e. stops both China and Soros funds and their related influence.

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#42  Edited By Icarian
Member since 2004 • 2188 Posts

Not going to happen. France is more powerful with the EU than alone. Russia and Trump would love to the EU to fall apart.

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#43 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:

Well, the actual payment is 19 billion, but that is before the rebate which brings it down to 13billion. And with the payment coming from EU, it´s currently at 8 billion or around 275million a week. It´s worth noting that if you look at 2008, the UK for every £2 paid they got around £1.74 back, which is in 2013 £0.75 for every £2 In 2018 it´s far less and in the future the cost for the UK will be far more, most of the member states except a few are for an increase in payment and also a decrease in the rebate.

So if you work with the estimated "loss" you could also work with an estimated cost for the UK as to the EU, and remove the rebate or cut it in half, and the cost is suddenly far more and what UK receives from the EU is far less.

No, I don´t think the EU will freely give the UK access to the market without some kind of reciprocation, but at the same time especially Germany is benefiting a lot from access to the UK waters and also exports to the UK. So are Germany and France willing to suddenly lose a massive benefit to their own countries.

The EU and the clown president may play hardball in the press, but under the surface, they are trembling.

No. Simply no. The rebate is applied before they pay anything. Bringing the actual payment down to 13 billion. This is 2016 numbers.

UK had to agree to changes to how the rebate was calculated. EU couldn't change those terms on their own.

UK 's Office for budget Responsibility themselves seems to believe a weakening of about 15 billion in public finances a year in the early 2020's. IFS also states that so far it seems both in short and long terms, the Brexit will reduce funding for both NHS and other public services.

The EU is a far bigger economy, they can take a 15 billion hit a year much better than UK.

And I didn´t say anything else, minus the rebate still makes it 280mill a week.

And yes considering that the EU budget requires a unanimous vote, UK could veto a change, but at the same time, it´s like any budget negotiations if the budget is not passed the EU will grind to a hold. Also, UK could be faced with a France, Italy and Germany who no longer want to pay the slack.

And sure an "independent" thinktank who is on the stay side confirms they think the UK is faced with a D-day. But no one is expecting a cost-free exit, but in the long term, an exit is a far more beneficial deal than to stay in, especially considering the new "EU" countries on the sideline who all come from the poor eastern Europe which just ads to the budget.

And the EU is not a singular economy, the money comes from its members and again here you seem to forget that it´s the west that carries it all, it´s France, Germany and Italy (Italy is faced with its own financial crises) and 20billion loss for them is not any different than 20 billion for the UK (which by the way is worst case and from a questionable source)

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#44  Edited By deeliman
Member since 2013 • 4027 Posts

@ronvalencia: CPTPP is just a trade agreement, the EU is actually a single market. Those are very different things. Joining CPTPP won't make the UK part a 16 trillion dollar economy.

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#45 deeliman
Member since 2013 • 4027 Posts
@Jacanuk said:
@horgen said:
@Jacanuk said:

Well, the actual payment is 19 billion, but that is before the rebate which brings it down to 13billion. And with the payment coming from EU, it´s currently at 8 billion or around 275million a week. It´s worth noting that if you look at 2008, the UK for every £2 paid they got around £1.74 back, which is in 2013 £0.75 for every £2 In 2018 it´s far less and in the future the cost for the UK will be far more, most of the member states except a few are for an increase in payment and also a decrease in the rebate.

So if you work with the estimated "loss" you could also work with an estimated cost for the UK as to the EU, and remove the rebate or cut it in half, and the cost is suddenly far more and what UK receives from the EU is far less.

No, I don´t think the EU will freely give the UK access to the market without some kind of reciprocation, but at the same time especially Germany is benefiting a lot from access to the UK waters and also exports to the UK. So are Germany and France willing to suddenly lose a massive benefit to their own countries.

The EU and the clown president may play hardball in the press, but under the surface, they are trembling.

No. Simply no. The rebate is applied before they pay anything. Bringing the actual payment down to 13 billion. This is 2016 numbers.

UK had to agree to changes to how the rebate was calculated. EU couldn't change those terms on their own.

UK 's Office for budget Responsibility themselves seems to believe a weakening of about 15 billion in public finances a year in the early 2020's. IFS also states that so far it seems both in short and long terms, the Brexit will reduce funding for both NHS and other public services.

The EU is a far bigger economy, they can take a 15 billion hit a year much better than UK.

And I didn´t say anything else, minus the rebate still makes it 280mill a week.

And yes considering that the EU budget requires a unanimous vote, UK could veto a change, but at the same time, it´s like any budget negotiations if the budget is not passed the EU will grind to a hold. Also, UK could be faced with a France, Italy and Germany who no longer want to pay the slack.

And sure an "independent" thinktank who is on the stay side confirms they think the UK is faced with a D-day. But no one is expecting a cost-free exit, but in the long term, an exit is a far more beneficial deal than to stay in, especially considering the new "EU" countries on the sideline who all come from the poor eastern Europe which just ads to the budget.

And the EU is not a singular economy, the money comes from its members and again here you seem to forget that it´s the west that carries it all, it´s France, Germany and Italy (Italy is faced with its own financial crises) and 20billion loss for them is not any different than 20 billion for the UK (which by the way is worst case and from a questionable source)

But those countries won't face a 20 billion loss individually, it will be spread out over 27 countries. So yes, it is very different than for the UK

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#46 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@deeliman: Not really

You are comparing the EU to a country, THE EU is luckily not yet a USE.

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#47  Edited By deeliman
Member since 2013 • 4027 Posts
@Jacanuk said:

@deeliman: Not really

You are comparing the EU to a country, THE EU is luckily not yet a USE.

I never said it was. But the EU IS a single market. Individual EU countries will only lose money on trade with the UK, while the UK will lose money on trade with 27 countries. It doesn't take a PhD in economics to figure out who would be hurt more in this scenario.

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#48 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts

@deeliman said:
@Jacanuk said:

@deeliman: Not really

You are comparing the EU to a country, THE EU is luckily not yet a USE.

I never said it was. But the EU IS a single market. Individual EU countries will only lose money on trade with the UK, while the UK will lose money on trade with 27 countries. It doesn't take a PhD in economics to figure out who would be hurt more in this scenario.

That is not quite how the EU works, yes they are a "single market" but they are also still individual countries and while there are common EU tariffs, each individual country also has their own.

Why do you think a car in the UK cost a fraction of what a cast cost in Sweden, or why do you think tobacco is taxed heavily in the UK but can be bought for a fraction in Polen. Or why do you think Greece, Italy and Spain are all on the verge of bankruptcy.

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#49 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 127492 Posts

@Jacanuk said:

That is not quite how the EU works, yes they are a "single market" but they are also still individual countries and while there are common EU tariffs, each individual country also has their own.

Why do you think a car in the UK cost a fraction of what a cast cost in Sweden, or why do you think tobacco is taxed heavily in the UK but can be bought for a fraction in Polen. Or why do you think Greece, Italy and Spain are all on the verge of bankruptcy.

Cars are much cheaper in UK compared to Sweden? Sweden has cheap vehicles. If they are much cheaper in UK, I would buy a new car when I run out of gas if I ever live there...

@Jacanuk said:

And I didn´t say anything else, minus the rebate still makes it 280mill a week.

And yes considering that the EU budget requires a unanimous vote, UK could veto a change, but at the same time, it´s like any budget negotiations if the budget is not passed the EU will grind to a hold. Also, UK could be faced with a France, Italy and Germany who no longer want to pay the slack.

And sure an "independent" thinktank who is on the stay side confirms they think the UK is faced with a D-day. But no one is expecting a cost-free exit, but in the long term, an exit is a far more beneficial deal than to stay in, especially considering the new "EU" countries on the sideline who all come from the poor eastern Europe which just ads to the budget.

And the EU is not a singular economy, the money comes from its members and again here you seem to forget that it´s the west that carries it all, it´s France, Germany and Italy (Italy is faced with its own financial crises) and 20billion loss for them is not any different than 20 billion for the UK (which by the way is worst case and from a questionable source)

Expected loss in growth equals those 280 million a week. If that lack of growth lasts for a few year, that is suddenly quite much more. If UK has lower economic growth for a 5 year period, you're up to over a billion a week. Only time will tell who the "winner" is. However as it is seems now, UK seems to be heading towards losing in the beginning. Both short and medium long term predictions.

Oh I am sure the other countries would like UK to provide more, but again, they have(excuse me, had) a rebate deal.

You have a 20 billion loss split over several nations, not just one.

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deeliman

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#50  Edited By deeliman
Member since 2013 • 4027 Posts

@Jacanuk: Sorry, but you are mistaken. Individual EU countries can't impose their own tariffs, just like they can't make their own trade deals.

Also, taxes are a completely different thing than tariffs, so I don't know where you are going with this?