The Democratic Base Keeps Getting Richer and Whiter. The Great Realignment.

https://jacobin.com/2022/07/democratic-party-voter-base-biden-administration-rich-white-suburbs

A startling poll shows how rapidly the Democrats are trading away their traditional multiracial, working-class base for white, highly educated voters. And the shift is causing a change to the party’s political priorities as a result.

The Democratic Party is not in a good place: Its political agenda is stalled, its president is historically unpopular, it’s suffered a string of policy defeats at the hands of the Supreme Court, and it looks like it’s headed for an unfavorable election result this November. If that weren’t enough, it also seems to be losing its traditional voter base.

There was some alarming news for the party in the latest New York Times Upshot/Siena College national poll earlier this week, with white, college-educated voters making up a larger share of Democratic support than non-white voters for the first time in the survey’s six-year history. This contrasts with the pattern seen over most of the last few decades, in which the GOP tended to preserve its traditional advantage with white college graduates, while Democrats relied on the overwhelming support of non-white voters.

This somewhat startling result is the fruit of a long-term process of political realignment that’s been going on since at least as early as Barack Obama’s presidency, but accelerated with Donald Trump’s emergence onto the political scene. On the one hand, Trump slightly scrambled typical voting trends in 2020, winning over a surprisingly high share (though still small in absolute terms) of groups like Latinos, Asians, Muslims, and even some Native Americans, and the GOP has since then been concertedly working to bring more of those voters into the fold.

At the same time, the Democratic Party has pursued and doubled down on an electoral strategy based on poaching affluent, former Republican-supporting voters while taking non-white support for granted, the assumption being that with the GOP mired in xenophobia and at times overt bigotry, these voters would have nowhere else to go.

“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin,” Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) infamously said in 2016.

That year’s election saw the Democratic nominee overperform in wealthy, educated neighborhoods, and the Republican nominee overperform in poorer, less educated (and mostly white) neighborhoods. The Democrats’ 2018 midterm rout was similarly based on winning over affluent suburban areas and whiter, more educated voters. By 2020, Joe Biden was comfortably out-fundraising Trump among zip codes with higher education levels and a $100,000 median household income, and the Democrats continued to shed support among all voters of color, whether college-educated or not.

Maybe more startling is what the Times found was the effect of this shifting class composition. Asked what the most important issues facing the country were, today’s Democratic voters overwhelmingly named guns, abortion, and threats to democracy, while relatively few pointed to the economy or inflation — only 17 percent of white, college-educated Biden voters did so, which according to the paper was the smallest proportion of any racial or educational group.

By contrast, the survey showed it was GOP-backing voters who overwhelmingly viewed economic issues as the biggest national problem. According to the Times, the less affluent and non-white voters who see this as the top priority prefer Republican control of Congress by a margin of 62 to 35 percent, even as a majority of voters who see the economy as the top issue also believe abortion should be legal. Much of this may be to do with the gains the party has made among Latino voters, which are ongoing.

Democrats are replacing Republicans as the preferred party of the very wealthy

https://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2016/6/3/11843780/democrats-wealthy-party

In 2012, something unusual happened. The wealthiest 4 percent of voting-age Americans, by a narrow plurality, supported a Democrat for president.

This hadn't happened since 1964. Before that, it hadn't happened since possibly the 1880s (scientific survey data for back then is, sadly, nonexistent).

So was 2012 a blip, like 1964? Or was 2012 the start of a phase shift, in which the Democrats replace the Republicans as the preferred party of the wealthiest Americans?

I'm pretty convinced that it does mark a phase shift. My strong hunch is that for the foreseeable future, the wealthiest Americans will prefer Democrats.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/further-evidence-that-democrats-have-become-the-party-of-the-rich

For generations, Democrats have sold themselves as the party of the working class, but as this data point — among many others — shows, that just isn’t true anymore. Democrats have become a party funded almost entirely by rich, white liberals. This is probably why the only tax changes Democrats were able to pass when they had control of the White House, Senate, and House was a massive tax cut for big business.

Republicans should definitely be alarmed that President Donald Trump appears to be sucking up tens of millions of dollars for his own benefit that could be going to Republican candidates this year. But Trump won’t be around forever.

The realignment of working-class voters, including working-class Hispanic voters, away from Democrats and toward Republicans is a long-term existential threat to the Democratic Party.

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/14/republicans-democrats-hispnanic-voters

Shifts in the demographics of the two parties' supporters — taking place before our eyes — are arguably the biggest political story of our time.

The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.

Why it matters: Democrats' hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party's coalition. Democrats' theory of the case collapses if Republicans make even incremental gains with those voters.

• Even small inroads with Hispanic voters could tip a number of Democratic-held swing seats to the GOP.

What the data show: Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll out this week. Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms.

• An NBC News poll in April found Democrats held a 38-point lead among women with college degrees — up from 10 points from 2010. Democrats lost ground with nearly every other demographic group tested in the survey.
• Nearly every House pickup in the 2020 election came from a woman or non-white challenger. The GOP's ability to win back a House majority this year rests on the success of candidates breaking the party’s typical mold.

What's happening: Democratic strategists say the party's biggest vulnerability is assuming that the priorities of progressive activists are the same as those of working-class voters.

• Progressive activists led the push to cut police budgets. Communities of color have borne the brunt of higher crime.
• Hispanics living on the U.S.-Mexico border are more likely to favor tougher border security measures that Republicans have championed.
• The recall of liberal school board members and a district attorney in San Francisco was fueled by disillusioned Asian-American Democrats.

Between the lines: Add the reality of growing inflation and worries of recession, and you see why Democrats are losing ground with a core part of their coalition.

• Wealthier Americans aren’t feeling the day-to-day hardship hitting the working class.
• This week's Times/Siena poll found affluent voters care about gun control and abortion rights. Working-class voters are squarely focused on the economy.

This is something people haven't talked about much here.

So id like to bring up up and see peoples thoughts on it.

Republicans are gaining ground with working class people and minorities.

Democrats are gaining ground with highly educated wealthy white people.

What does this mean for both the Democrat and Republican party moving forward in the future?

Thoughts?

If the Republicans are losing the suburbs, they're in trouble.

@LJS9502_basic: but if they are starting to lose blue collar workers and minority voters, will it make up the difference?

Suburbs always vote. Blue collar and minorities don't. But I think that's going to change anyway with the policies being passed that help those people and the crimes of the GOP coming out. I wouldn't count my chickens were I you.

This isnt so much a shift, as much as people are realizing that democrats, being neoliberal, have always favored the rich.

Republicans do as well, but they have been pulling off more populist rhetoric recently, but that is just that... rhetoric.

All I see from these trends and data and polls is that there are some people still suckered into the whole culture war the GOP is fighting, but honestly I don't know how sustainable that is for the long term. The GOP has put themselves into a pretty bad corner right now and we are seeing them for the anti-American, un-democratic corporate shills that they are.

They consistently fight for tax breaks for the wealthy, not the poor; they consistently fight against worker's rights and unions, not for them; and they don't want people to vote and become educated.

I am not worried. Things might get worse before they get better, but they will get better.

I have been expecting this situation for a long time.

If you are a moderate pro free market conservative but dont care about the nativism brought by trump, religion doesn't top your agenda and are scared of trump unpredictability, then you are left without any choice.

Some people will end up choosing moderate democrats.

On the other hand l, If you are a populist anti stablisment democrat that thinks it's not your actions that determine your economical well being but the context around you. Regardless of your race, you may simpathize with the person selling you easy and simple to understand solutions (trump saying that other countries are taking advantage of the USA etc)

"A startling poll shows how rapidly the Democrats are trading away their traditional multiracial, working-class base for white, highly educated voters. And the shift is causing a change to the party’s political priorities as a result."

Did the OP just admit that the more highly educated are voting for democrats? College graduates are joining the opposing party and you're not asking why?

@HoolaHoopMan: your ignoring the other side of the conversation. The working class is gaining more traction with the right.

Traditionally this is a big shift. More wealthy whites are voting left and more working class minorities are voting right than ever before.

I don't doubt that some shifts have occurred. But the reality of the situation is that the GOP is still primarily white in composition, by a large margin, when compared to the Democratic party. We need to take the shift into account but still look at the broader picture showing that minorities by and large do not support the GOP. And as you've duly noted, the lines between party are also getting more pronounced along education level lines.

@HoolaHoopMan: how do you feel the Democrat party being the face of highly educated wealthy people and not working class blue collar people.

How does that bode for the party in your opinion?

How will that reflect in policy

Why are you assuming there are no educated Democrats? That's false.

One poll? I thought SargentD dismissed the very concept of polling?

@br0kenrabbit: I'm just having a conversation friend

@LJS9502_basic: where did I say that?! Lol

Consistency of position is pretty central to, you know, not being a hypocrite.

I support a party based on policy, and when it comes to policy, the democratic party wins hands down. I don't give a flying f*ck about anything regarding demographics when one side is brainwashed and pushing 2020 election lies and conspiracies. Given that the democratic party and their policies are more popular than republican ones, I'd say they are doing better in that regard.

Truth matters. The GOP is devoid of it.

@HoolaHoopMan: I'd assume Democrats policies are not appealing to working class blue collar Americans if they are moving away from that party.

I doubt they are leaving in any large number. Unions STILL support the Democrats and you can't more working class than that.

Your assertion doesn't follow the statement. You're arguing about a SHIFT, not total composition. You'd have to provide evidence of the former since the latter doesn't support it.

You could easily say that the black community voted for Trump in larger numbers than previous elections (hence they are moving away from democrats), however they still overwhelmingly vote democrat at a 9:1 ratio. Therefore we can still conclude that democrats appeal to them more so.

That's what they thought in the UK too. Then they realised we had no industry left and all the remaining unions were basically the professional class. Labour lost by a landslide to the Conservatives, who suddenly appealed more to the working class on the Brexit issue.

Eh. I stopped reading a after "their agenda is stalled". Biden passed everything and is in a roll. All this tells me it's that white voters are leaving the Republican party, as they should.

i guess the GOP should be excited then about all those immigrants coming in and illegally voting then.

they must be voting republican.


also this.

Would those be the union members you're expecting to pay off your student loans with the money they actually work for? Oh yeah, I'm sure they're happy with the DNC.

You do know union members attend school, stop being an elitist snob. They also send their children to college.

Regarding the Education thing

Democrats are still the party of Unions and Educated people, with more and more educated people siding with the democrats. Why is this?

One hunch I have is that the bernie bros, looking for simple solutions to complex problems are getting disenfranchised with the democrats. To which the Republicans had a massive lead in. Whether is "Build The Wall", "America First" or some other nonsense that ultimately means nothing.

Bernie Sanders of course also offered a lot of simple solutions. He promised universal health care, but I remember him offering no such plan on how such a thing should be done.

Another possibility is that republicans are getting increasingly hostile to empiricism. Which drives away more educated critical thinkers. Whether it is a hostility towards polls, scientific research, or academia itself. Naturally this can be a huge turn off for the educated people.

This anti-empiricism manifests in a lot of ways, in the past it was conspiracy theories against the theory of evolution, now it manifests in other forms, such as using YouTube vlogs and cherry picking the few experts that do agree with them, or conspiracy theories to as to why every single relevant academic discipline accepts the validity of transmen and women.

Instead of academic papers, they now accept stuff from the blogosphere and what they pick up on social media... or worse, memes.

@comp_atkins: Are you trying to say that Republican representatives are overly white Christian guys? And that this does not represent the nation very well? I think you simply forgot who should be allowed to vote. White Christian guys. :P

Me being the elitist? I'm not the one entitled enough to think somebody else should pay my bills. And those "unions" are quite often in labor fields that focused on training and apprenticeships over useless college degrees in gender studies and basket weaving.

If they're gaining voters and not losing them then that's a positive. I still feel getting higher degrees of voter participation will make more of a difference.

This is a worldwide trend. Multiple elections since trump became president in 2016 have shown this same shift across the world.