So, how valid is the "The economy sucks" talking point now?

Considering that we saw 400k jobs created last month and increases 5% in wages.

If you haven't been keeping track, we now have 8.7 million jobs created under Biden in a little over one year, the fastest rate of job creation, ever.

It seems to me that Trump shut down the economy in 2020, causing oil companies to cap thousands of wells in order to get rid of the oil sitting in hundreds of tankers offshore because no one was going anywhere, and now a certain group of people are just talking out their behinds because they're upset that companies are trying to recoup their 2020 recession losses, blaming it on the guy who has nothing to do with it.

Economies that are "bad" don't see massive job creation numbers like this.

Biden Takes Victory Lap on 390K May Jobs Report and 8.7 Million Jobs Since Taking Office: ‘An All-Time Record’ (msn.com)

eh. there's still parts of the economy coming out of shutdowns / slowdowns due to covid. numbers are good, yeah, but take them with a grain of salt. i don't think we're in "normal" times yet.

@tjandmia: It's actually very valid actually.

1. Employment levels are lower now compared to January 2020.

2. Q1 GDP growth was negative -1.40%

3. Inflation rate April 8.30%, eased from 8.50% in March highest since the 1980s. Real wages are rising at a slower pace than inflation.

4. Current account lowest since the early 2000s.

5. Trade deficit record-high March 2022

6. Debt to GDP record-high, White House estimate at 137.20%

7. Interest rates at 0.25%, undoubtedly will rise curbing investment and consumption.

8. Fed balance sheet increased from $4.15 tr to $9 tr Jan 2020 to April 2022, a 117% increase (Federal Reserve data)

9. Inflation is partly elevated due to import tariffs.

10. Maintaining import tariffs has reduced US GDP (Federal Reserve report).

Victory lap? Really?

If let's say Trump won his second term, wouldn't unemployment fall, simply by continuing to ease restrictions and re-open the economy?

The economy always sucks for most people no matter how the objective stats look.

I pay $100 at the fuel stop, and significantly more for groceries, so yea, it sucks.

why do you peddle for this guy so hard, what the shit has he ever done for you? I bet nothing.

Anecdotally? Not happy with my 401k or my stocks at the moment, but otherwise I'm doing OK. I commute five minutes so gas prices are not an issue, and I eat mostly vegetables and a bit of chicken and cook my own food so food costs aren't a big deal either.

Honestly things could be better, but the movers and shakers of the world just really love to **** with things when times are bad, and politicians would rather play at theater than actually work behind the scenes to do stuff.

Sometimes I just have to laugh at the notion that the dollar isn't really a tangible thing and it's worth whatever we say it is, and people that are good at math can make the statistics say what they want them to say.

Yeah I filled up my tank the other day and it was around 75; I think my last highest was about 55 and that was quite some time ago.

I'm not a Biden fan (assuming that's who you mean) but I don't think it's really in his control. It's the Russians and Arabs playing with us. All the more reason to produce more of our own as we ween ourselves off and transition to renewable, nuclear, and other non-fossil sources.

It sucks on a global scale. And thanks to Russia it will worsen.

I think the American economy right now is just normal. Nothing brilliant about it, nothing terrible.

killing keystone, and thumbs up nordstream. that is shit.

I mean, they'd have to admit they, and the country were better off under Trump, wouldn't they? And they have way too much ego invested in the tribalism to admit that. So they'll defend him, hell they'll vote for him again because at the end of the day, not admitting you were wrong is more important than making the country better for it's citizens.

It's no difference than the people in System Wars unable to admit anything positive about the consoles they didn't dump money into. It's all about protecting the ego.

@eoten: dude, when trump left it was massive unemployment, riots everywhere, huge accumulation of debt.

If you are going to blame biden for external factors such as the orice of oil, its fair game to blame trump for the pandemic economy.

And it was awful.

Do note that if wages rises slower/less than inflation, you are all getting a pay cut.

It was also right in the middle of Covid, when you people were demanding everything be shut down. What? No recollection of that? In fact, a lot of people in the media were whining that we weren't aggressive enough in putting millions out of work by dictating which businesses were essential, and whose jobs were more important.

@eoten: tough shit this is the middle of a war between one of the largest fuel producer and one of the largest grain producers while china is still shut down.

So is anyone surprised there is inflation?

As i said, if we are to count external circumstances we should count them in all cases.

For me personally it's a bit of two different stories, on the one hand I currently have a job that pays more than I have ever had in my life (it's not huge or anything, but it is huge to me and my area/profession) and the country largely reflects that with rising wages, growing job numbers, and 3.6 unemployment rate.

The other story is that the stock market sucks right now. My 401k is basically a bank account that loses money and that's frustrating. I'd like to see it grow, at least a little bit, but it's been down since January.

That said if you lived through the 2008 recession I'd definitely take the scenario of high employment with high inflation of today over the low employment with low inflation back then. Employees have real negotiating power and that's worth a lot in my book.

A few points seem obvious.

1. At least half the country has not only no idea what's actually happening in the world, but clearly have no idea what's happening here, either.

2. The stock market casino goes up and down. You're not always going to win.

3. Trump saw marginal growth at an avg of 2% (pre-pandemic), no better than Obama's which you guys claimed was shitty.

4. Trump left office with a recession, spent $8 trillion in 4 years, and left office with 3 million fewer jobs than when he took office, all because he was more interested in his personal goals than properly managing a pandemic. Things were not better then.

5. Americans pay some of the lowest gas prices in the world. It's funny how you blame government for the free economy you claim to love so much when that very same free economy doesn't do what you want.

6. The U.S. economy has averaged 5.5% GDP growth over the past 5 quarters, better than both Obama and Trump, combined.

7. Something like half of U.S. the inflation average is due to large increases in used car prices from increased demand and supply issues in the auto industry.

8. Even if inflation in non-auto industries were 8.3%, paying $108.30 vs $100 for your grocery order doesn't represent a "significantly higher amount for groceries". lol.

9. It's nice to FINALLY see conservatives admit that the China tariffs have increased costs.

10. The U.S. still has the strongest economy in the world.

Anyone trying to argue that the overall economy is bad right now is just pissing in the wind.

The economy seems fine. It's just bottlenecked right now with demand putting so much pressure on supply. Some areas are still experiencing COVID related problems too. It'll work itself out. Things like this take a while because it's a lot simpler to shut things down than it is to ramp them back up.

@tjandmia: I’m going to disagree with you on a few points.

5. GDP growth was minus 1.40% in Q1. If Q2 is negative then the US is properly in a recession. The growth seen post pandemic in the U.S. is driven by lifting restrictions and stimulus money. It’s also partly the reason for the current high level of inflation.

7. Half the US inflation cannot derive from used cars. Inflation is measured using a basket of goods. Cars are only part of that, in fact it carries less weight than food.

9. According to a report by the Federal Reserve the tariffs has hurt the US far more than China. It is not just inflationary but it has also reduced investment.

10. The US isn’t the strongest economy in the world. In terms of GDP growth, many countries beat it. In terms of nominal size it is the largest, but if you used the PPP method as used by the IMF, Worldbank, CIA and etc, the largest is China. Measurement by GDP per capita…it’s not the US.

Overall the economy is OK. If you poll people their own personal attitudes in aggregate don't match the situation i.e. 80% of people say they are doing fine yet they all have a doom and gloom view of economy. It means our emotions don't match reality.

With that being said, it's probably a good thing to see jobs added lower than April along with a slight drop in CPI inflation. The FED is starting to wipe large balances off of their sheets by reducing purchases and will raise rates again in July. Once thing to watch is the composition of PCE/CPI as durable goods are coming down in price but services are expected to rise. Net decease is still expected though.

@tjandmia: you know, just being dismissive and laughing at what people go through because you think that you're being rational about it or whatever doesn't help anyone and makes you come across as an asshole.

New and used cars certainly did in 2021 and continue to represent a disproportionate amount in CPI month over month tallies. Overall inflation is now broadening but in 2021 select goods drove inflation rather a general basket of goods.

I'm still just flabbergasted that people are calling a high growth, high job growth, low unemployment environment a bad economy. It's a hot economy. Arguably too hot. But it's very important to distinguish the two because they have very different effects and call for very different reactions. Hell, this is the environment Trump said he wanted to get to.

It's because they're being inundated with confirmation bias each and every day. There's still a high chance we'll see a recession but that will most likely be short lived and incomparable to anything seen in 2009 or 2001.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2021-report-economic-well-being-us-households-202205.pdf

"The share of adults doing at least okay financially rose to the highest level since the survey began in 2013. Although financial challenges and risks to the recovery remain, this generally positive assessment of financial well-being was consistent with improved economic conditions and additional COVID-19 relief measures in 2021.

The increase in financial well-being occurred broadly across the population and was especially large among parents. Even so, existing gaps by education and by race and ethnicity persisted.

At the end of 2021, 78 percent of adults were doing at least okay financially, meaning they reported either “doing okay” financially (39 percent) or “living comfortably” (39 percent). The rest reported either “just getting by” (16 percent) or “finding it difficult to get by” (6 percent). The 78 percent of adults doing at least okay financially in 2021 was up 3 percentage points from 2020 and was well above the 62 percent doing at least this well in 2013 (figure 1). As further evidence of greater financial wellbeing in 2021, the share of adults who said they were living comfortably rose by 4 percentage points. This increase in financial wellbeing aligns with improved economic conditions and the additional COVID-19 relief measures enacted in 2021."

@HoolaHoopMan: And THEN it would be a bad economy.

See edit in my post above. Household surveys don't reflect self assessment vs overall assessment.

You're in the wrong post. Stop babbling about nonsense.

Clearly the US economy is just going great. I think we may be in a golden age.

@tjandmia: no I'm really not. You talk about only paying 8 dollars more for food as if that's remotely the experience people are having and laugh about it, and you patronize people about having to pay more for gas despite the fairly sudden and massive increases. Neither of those are expenses people can do anything about or avoid and yet you're laughing about it like it's no big deal for people.

@HoolaHoopMan: You still have not answered my 10 questions!

Regarding your post. Very very funny, you can’t even read graphs! Look at the axis! Look at them before you post! Look at the latest data.

What do the orange bars represent? Tell me what do they represent and compare that to what I wrote?

How about being a man and answering those 10 questions, or have you gone back under your rock?

@Serraph105: let em keep pretending everything is great lol I want the Democrats out and these people shilling for groceries, housing, and gas going up in price is good... That's good for me. Annoys people and let's em see how the Democrats are shitting the bed and don't gaf about them or know wtf they are doing. Instead of addressing it's shit and explaining how they are going to try and fix it. They dance around pretending it's not an issue. Amazing lol

@Serraph105: its the dem perogative.

doesnt affect youself directly, and anyone who complains about it, is a conservative/repub/far-right/proud-boy/what the f ever

if youre not with us, you against us.

I'm so sick and tired of hearing the same bs broken record that Trumps presidency was summed up in the final months during the midst of a pandemic that is heavily linked to top Democrats and the Chinese government... give me a break. Try talking about the first 3 years for a change.

If you think that Biden has nothing to do with the economy, gas prices, etc. I have a bridge to sell you. We were energy independent before Trump left office and Biden stopped that cold and was buying the lions share of oil from Russia who all you heard day in and day out while Trump was in office is "Russia bad, and Trump Russia collusion"... blah blah blah, and then it's totally fine for Democrats to jump in bed with them spending billions on their oil (when all we ever hear is that Russia are our adversaries) even well into the war in Ukraine which effectively meant we were literally funding both sides of the war.

They are trying to crash the economy on purpose. The more people that depend on them the more power they gain, and the more people they fool into believing their shit the easier it is for them to retain, Now they are coming for our firearms and the morons think 9mm is a large caliber. Even Biden isn't stupid enough to actually try to take them away... it's just positioning so the morons that know absolutely nothing about firearms or firearm safety stay off his and the democratic governments ass.

Everything is just fine until they pull the carpet out from under your feet. Inflation is as bad as it is due to horrible economic decisions and paying people more not to work for months on end. There are STILL to this day signs on EVERY place of employment that need employees. They can spout all the bs they want about unemployment being low, but the amount of homeless people is skyrocketing, every business is hiring, and stores are still closing early due to a shortage in the work force.

There is believing everything you read and hear, and then there is opening your eyes and taking a look around and rejoining reality.

@WitIsWisdom: i am guessing all.the other countries also suffering inflations are just experiencing a massive coincidence...

As I read your reply, I was wondering - Did this fellow at least complete high school, or is he purposely being dense?

I'm laughing, as CLEARLY stated in the reply, at the fact that anyone could consider an 8% increase on $100, a significant amount. It's not even 1/10th. It just such an absurd thing to suggest. Beyond wanting to make a fool of yourself, why even do it?

I can read graphs but I'm starting to think you can't. It's a break down of month over month CPI inflation, one metric which you love using. The data directly supports the notion that new and used cars ABSOLUTELY contributed a vastly large amount since 2020.

Am I to assume this will just be your MO now then? Make a statement in a vacuum, be presented with evidence arguing against it, then ramble on about unrelated nonsense in response? You might as well change your name to eoten.

You're a bigger fool than I thought.

I'm sorry, you're saying the pandemic is linked to top democrats? You mind elaborating on what that even means?

As Serraph implied, the increases are not broad and are instead localized, largely in things like gas, housing (in certain areas), and specific foods like eggs. Combine that with the fact that everyone's finances are different despite us tending to project our own circumstances onto others, and he's right - a good number of people are certainly feeling some financial stress.

That doesn't mean that it's not overblown in the aggregate or even beneficial (to low earners), but personal finances at the individual level are not the aggregate. We should acknowledge that and not be dismissive of it.

@mattbbpl: how is the price up on groceries, gas, and housing good for (low earners)???????

@sargentd: Because the tight labor market that has in part led to those conditions has resulted in both lower unemployment and real wage gains for the lowest earners.

Yep. Bottom quartile is absolutely ahead on wage growth. It's also the poorer Americans that are affected when unemployment rises, not the rich.

What's a bigger concern for wages for people at the bottom: inflation -or- having a job. The latter is always more important since inflation means jack sh*t if you have no income.

Ditto, things are definitely getting far more expensive overall, but I'm fortunate to not be in a situation where these things will break me, as I've made sure to live well below my means. Sucks for those who are at, or close to the poverty line. I've also switched over to eating a lot of chicken, whereas I used to eat a lot of beef/steak.

I could technically still afford beef, but it's just not worth it now, except for the rare treat.

I'm going to stick with being dismissive of his silly assertion that somehow I am laughing at people for something or other.

@tjandmia: "I'm going to stick with being dismissive of his silly assertion that somehow I am laughing at people for something or other."

I'll just quote you below for the examples of you laughing and being dismissive of people's financial issues in that case.

"5. Americans pay some of the lowest gas prices in the world. It's funny how you blame government for the free economy you claim to love so much when that very same free economy doesn't do what you want.

8. Even if inflation in non-auto industries were 8.3%, paying $108.30 vs $100 for your grocery order doesn't represent a "significantly higher amount for groceries". lol."

@Serraph105: Ah, there it is, my point that considering 8% extra to be significantly higher is comically absurd! Thanks for quoting it for everyone who didn't see it. 👍

Read, my original comment. Did I say anything about new cars? No, I did not.

New and used cars are different markets, but of course, you don't understand that. Just like you don't understand basic economics.

You added an entire market against my argument. That's pretty stupid.

Come on answer those 10 questions, or are you too cowardly?

"Half the US inflation cannot derive from used cars"

You mentioned used cars which is categorically similar and tied to the same pricing structure (hence why official PCI estimates bucket them together). I can tell you're on the defensive when you're scrambling to move the goal posts and continuously reverting back to your childish behavior.

Why would they admit to a falsehood? That stuff started in 2020, when Trump was on office, and when jobs were far worse.

You're objectively wrong. Like you are in most topics. The gas prices are not Biden's fault.

Holy shit this is straight up Alex Jones crazy.

Didn't even bother reading the rest of the post but a brief skim through revealed mostly INSANE lies.

personally got 2 big pay raises in last 2 years so i'm still kicking inflations ass :)