German Elections today

Today the Germans are holding the general elections today for the 20th Bundestag.

Angela Merkel had a prolific career, but she will not choose to run any longer. The current holders at the Parliament are,

• CDU (Center-Right Liberal Conservatives) 245 / 709
• SPD (Social Democrats) 152 / 709
• AfD (Nationalism) 88 / 709
• FDP (Classic Liberals) 80 / 709
• Die Linke (Democratic Socialists) 69 / 709
• Alliance 90 (Green Party). 67 / 709

With 6 independants in there as well.

Polling showed the Green party (Alliance 90) having quite a nice lead before, but that lead eventually collapsed, and while it looks likethey will make significant progress, they may end up only 3rd, rather than first. CDU has been hanging in there and made some heavy losses, most likely costing them the Prime Ministry. Which will be one of the few times the CDU wont have the prime minister of Germany. The current favorite looks to be the SPD, which may just take the most seats in the parliament and Olaf Schoolz might just end up the next Prime Minister.

The AFD has been holding on very steadily, arguably gaining a bit of traction, but I dont think it will be enough, and they will most likely lose seats in the parliament.

The FDP almost fell to irrelevency. But has managed to recover... somewhat.

Who do you hope will win, who do you think will win?

I would hope Alliance 90 wins, but I think the winner at this point will be the SPD. The less votes AfD gets the better. Germany would be better off without them.

@Maroxad: What are the most important ramifications of the race in your opinion?

SPD but they will need the CDU to govern because the greenies aren't strong enough.

I would argue it is the direction the country takes from here on out. Angela Merkel has been in power for 16 years now. SPD will most likely end up being more of the same. CDC will push the country further to the right.

But yeah, a lot of germans futures lies on the results of this election. The floods that devastated the country earlier this year will most likely be back next summer. So whoever is in charge, better be someone who takes climate change more seriously. But there is more, Right now, 6 villages are at risk of getting destroyed in germany over coal mining.

https://www.dw.com/en/garzweiler-coal-mine-20-villages-swallowed-6-more-are-set-to-disappear/av-52706287

Needless to say. The country needs someone to start preparing better for future natural disasters. And someone who puts an end to the country's coal mining. The devastation in the country needs to stop.

Edit: Of course, these elections wont just impact Germany. Germany has arguably been the leader of the EU and Europe as a whole. Should a Euroskeptic party get too much power, that could spell the end of the EU.

@Maroxad: Any impact on EU monetary/fiscal policy? Merkel took a hard stance against countries hit harder than Germany in 2009+, and without sovereign currencies it shoved them into a hole that took a lot longer to climb out of than it should have. Is any result here likely to do better on that front in future recessions?

@mattbbpl: There are a few Euroskeptic Parties. But outside of AfD none of them hold any power. So if the others remain with roughly as much power as before that front wont end much.

Seeing UK current state should deter most people from another EU exit

@Maroxad: Oh, I'm not looking for a Eurosceptic type of thing. I'm just hoping for a more balanced/nuanced policy when a recession strikes member countries asymmetrically (which will be the case more often than not). It sounds like that isn't in the cards yet

The Social Democrats have ensured a victory. A close one. But the CDU hit historic lows. Massive win for the Greens who went from 67 seats to 118. The AfD lost 5 seats. Having continued to lose power since the 2017 election. The biggest losers however, are the Left party, who practically lost half of their seats.

Olaf Scholz prime ministership isnt guaranteed yet. But if he is the most likely one to get that position now. Olaf Scholtz is a centrist, or rather, pragmatist.

https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/20/the-german-elections-2021-who-is-olaf-scholz

As for what will happen now. I can see mandatory vaccine mandates becoming a thing in germany soon. More support for the UBI experiment. And increased worker rights overall.

I have seen a lot of nationalists outright deny that sadly.

Facts never mattered to them. They always chose to live in a different reality.

@Maroxad: it's better with empty stores and no gas at gas station than admitting the current state is due to their views.

Maybe a couple of them will change their tune when they can not refill fuel in their cars and thus miss work.

so true.

It sounds like a fairly positive result, yes?

Mostly, some may argue it wont go far enough on environmental aspects. But overall it wasnt a terrible result by any means. I am not sure the current administration wont do enough to save those 6 villages from being demolished in favor of coal mining interests.