Economy continues it's free fall. Poor job report for May

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#1  Edited By deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

The president of bankruptcy continues his war against the American worker, and the historic economy he inherited from President Obama.

Jobs gained only 75,000 last month, far short of the estimate of 180,000.

Job reports for April and march were also reduced as the number if jobs was over reported for those months.

Labor participation is at 62%

For comparison.

Job gains

Obama’s last 28 months: 6112000

Trump’s first 28 months: 5475000

But at least Republicans can claim the president of bankruptcy responsible for shameless corruption, free rein to polluters, war on Medicare, and bottomless dishonesty.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/07/nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-may-2019.html?__twitter_impression=true

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#2 deactivated-5e9044657a310
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Serraph105

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#3 Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 35045 Posts

"Fake bad numbers. Deep State. Sad."

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horgen

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#4 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 124302 Posts

With that many, or few if you want to, jobs added, did the unemployment rate increase?

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#5 deactivated-5e9044657a310
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@Serraph105: we need more tariffs

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#6  Edited By deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@horgen: unemployment remained about the same.

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#7 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 124302 Posts

@Nuck81 said:

@horgen: unemployment remained about the same.

So all in all not so bad.

With that said: Hearing that Fed might lower the interest rate isn't a good sign.

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#8  Edited By deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@horgen: just means jobs gained we're about the same as jobs lost. The country broke even this month.

Won't take much to start swinging the other way.

That's why the Trump admin is trying to look at other ways to count unemployment so they can keep cooking the books.

Edit: old article I remembered wrong.

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#9 horgen  Moderator
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@Nuck81 said:

@horgen: just means jobs gained we're about the same as jobs lost. The country broke even this month.

Won't take much to start swinging the other way.

That's why the Trump admin is trying to look at other ways to count unemployment so they can keep cooking the books.

Hopefully everyone will point out that this new number can not compare to the older ones if the Trump admin changes it.

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#10 mattbbpl
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@Nuck81: "That's why the Trump admin is trying to look at other ways to count unemployment so they can keep cooking the books."

Wait, what? Got a source on that?

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#11 comp_atkins
Member since 2005 • 36783 Posts
@horgen said:
@Nuck81 said:

@horgen: unemployment remained about the same.

So all in all not so bad.

With that said: Hearing that Fed might lower the interest rate isn't a good sign.

trump has repeatedly said he is mad the fed has been raising rates. maybe he plan all along has been to **** up the economy enough where the fed feels it needs to try to lower them again.

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#12 N64DD
Member since 2015 • 13167 Posts
@Nuck81 said:

The president of bankruptcy continues his war against the American worker, and the historic economy he inherited from President Obama.

Jobs gained only 75,000 last month, far short of the estimate of 180,000.

Job reports for April and march were also reduced as the number if jobs was over reported for those months.

Labor participation is at 62%

For comparison.

Job gains

Obama’s last 28 months: 6112000

Trump’s first 28 months: 5475000

But at least Republicans can claim the president of bankruptcy responsible for shameless corruption, free rein to polluters, war on Medicare, and bottomless dishonesty.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/07/nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-may-2019.html?__twitter_impression=true

Trump inherited Obama's economy, this is trumps economy, we're still in obama's economy, obama inherited bush's economy.

It changes depending on your narrative.

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#13 deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@mattbbpl: it was an old article I was remembering. From 2017.

I remembered it wrong. My mistake.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/01/29/donald-trump-wants-to-increase-the-unemployment-rate-by-1-from-4-7-to-5-7/

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#14 deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@n64dd: you do understand that when someone takes over a job, they inherit everything in that job right?

What a backfire

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#15 N64DD
Member since 2015 • 13167 Posts
@Nuck81 said:

@n64dd: you do understand that when someone takes over a job, they inherit everything in that job right?

What a backfire

Exactly my point. You're lost a bit aren't you?

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#16 deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@n64dd: not at all. Try reading

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#17 N64DD
Member since 2015 • 13167 Posts
@Nuck81 said:

@n64dd: not at all. Try reading

Don't get all triggered

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#18 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 124302 Posts

@comp_atkins said:
@horgen said:
@Nuck81 said:

@horgen: unemployment remained about the same.

So all in all not so bad.

With that said: Hearing that Fed might lower the interest rate isn't a good sign.

trump has repeatedly said he is mad the fed has been raising rates. maybe he plan all along has been to **** up the economy enough where the fed feels it needs to try to lower them again.

It's good for shareholders if the fed starts using money again I guess.

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#19 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts
@n64dd said:
@Nuck81 said:

@n64dd: not at all. Try reading

Don't get all triggered

LOL, they always get triggered.

It´s fun to read these threads because there is zero sensible content it´s just more "orange man bad / come agree with me so I don´t feel all alone and sad"

Also let´s not even begin to discuss why job creation may be at a point where the market is saturated and that the unemployment rate is so low that the people out of work, have 0 ability to work.

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#20 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 124302 Posts

@Jacanuk said:
@n64dd said:
@Nuck81 said:

@n64dd: not at all. Try reading

Don't get all triggered

LOL, they always get triggered.

It´s fun to read these threads because there is zero sensible content it´s just more "orange man bad / come agree with me so I don´t feel all alone and sad"

Also let´s not even begin to discuss why job creation may be at a point where the market is saturated and that the unemployment rate is so low that the people out of work, have 0 ability to work.

That should be a driving force for higher wages, shouldn't it?

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#21  Edited By deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@Jacanuk: I'm hiring. Everyone I know is hiring.

Send me your resume, I'll pass it on to HR

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#22  Edited By deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@horgen: in account for inflation current wages have the spending power of wages from 1970s

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#23 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts
@horgen said:

That should be a driving force for higher wages, shouldn't it?

Yes, but that does equal more jobs created

As the case is now the market is hungry for workers but the unemployment is at such a low level that the ones unemployed are people who can´t work.

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#24 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: I'm hiring. Everyone I know is hiring.

Send me your resume, I'll pass it on to HR

Funny :)

But how much do you pay? I could be convinced if you can match my current job.

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#25 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 124302 Posts
@Jacanuk said:
@horgen said:

That should be a driving force for higher wages, shouldn't it?

Yes, but that does equal more jobs created

As the case is now the market is hungry for workers but the unemployment is at such a low level that the ones unemployed are people who can´t work.

Then I expect to read about it in the coming months.

@Nuck81 said:

@horgen: in account for inflation current wages have the spending power of wages from 1970s

Oh I know they do, except for the top 10% and 1% in particular.

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#26 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 171584 Posts

@horgen said:

@Nuck81 said:

@horgen: in account for inflation current wages have the spending power of wages from 1970s

Oh I know they do, except for the top 10% and 1% in particular.

The trump plan..............

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#27 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 124302 Posts

@LJS9502_basic said:
@horgen said:
@Nuck81 said:

@horgen: in account for inflation current wages have the spending power of wages from 1970s

Oh I know they do, except for the top 10% and 1% in particular.

The trump plan..............

More than just his. It's a consequence of the falling and continuously low interest rates among other factors.

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#28  Edited By deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@Jacanuk: depends on experience/education

A kid that just graduated high school that comes in as a green hand, I start at $12/hr

If you have at least a year of construction or preferably welding, but no NDE I'll start you at $14.

Have NDE experience but don't have any certs than $15

Have at least three years and have been certed in PT, MT, and RT I start at $18. Five years and certs you get $20.

Have an advanced cert in shearwave UT $26.

Certed in Phase to Ray, you get $32

Have an API cert (I'm actually pretty desperate for an API 550 in Texas,) $35.

Are you a CWI? $35 or higher depending on how many years you have.

I offer insurance, but no 401k matching currently. I do have a merryl Lynch adviser that will come to the office and help you get set up with a 401k, NRA, or whatever fits you best.

Raises annually based on performance. 2 weeks vacation after a year, 3 weeks after 3 years. 4 weeks after 5 years.

Also a pay bump with every level II cert you earn. Big bumps if you earn an API or CWI.

You pay for your certs, or I pay for them and you sign a 3 year contract that you will stay employed with me. I'm not paying for your certs just for you to turn around and work somewhere else.

And of course everything is negotiable.

Edit: if you're on the road you get $110 a day in per diem

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#29  Edited By Zaryia
Member since 2016 • 14147 Posts
@n64dd said:
@Nuck81 said:

The president of bankruptcy continues his war against the American worker, and the historic economy he inherited from President Obama.

Jobs gained only 75,000 last month, far short of the estimate of 180,000.

Job reports for April and march were also reduced as the number if jobs was over reported for those months.

Labor participation is at 62%

For comparison.

Job gains

Obama’s last 28 months: 6112000

Trump’s first 28 months: 5475000

But at least Republicans can claim the president of bankruptcy responsible for shameless corruption, free rein to polluters, war on Medicare, and bottomless dishonesty.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/07/nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-may-2019.html?__twitter_impression=true

Trump inherited Obama's economy, this is trumps economy, we're still in obama's economy, obama inherited bush's economy.

It changes depending on your narrative.

I think you're more confused than anyone.

Trump's main economic accomplishments are the total jobs records. But 90% of that occurred from 2010 to 2017 January. No matter who became president would enjoy record level Jobs Stats from 2017-2019.

Now that's just a total, which is mostly Obama. But the gains or growth after 2018 are certainly Trumps. Overall he hasn't done a good as job as Obama.

And remember, the Economy is his only positive thing that is stopping him from going into the 30's approval - and it's mostly due to Obama. yikes.

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#30  Edited By Zaryia
Member since 2016 • 14147 Posts
@Nuck81 said:

Jobs gained only 75,000 last month, far short of the estimate of 180,000.

Job reports for April and march were also reduced as the number if jobs was over reported for those months.

Labor participation is at 62%

For comparison.

Job gains

Obama’s last 28 months: 6112000

Trump’s first 28 months: 5475000

But at least Republicans can claim the president of bankruptcy responsible for shameless corruption, free rein to polluters, war on Medicare, and bottomless dishonesty.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/07/nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-may-2019.html?__twitter_impression=true

Jobs creation slows dramatically with payrolls up just 75,000 in May, much worse than expected

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/07/nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-may-2019.html?__twitter_impression=true

Meanwhile,

@Jacanuk said:

zero sensible content it´s just more "orange man bad / come agree with me so I don´t feel all alone and sad"

Ahh politics in 2019. Refute data by posting an alt-right meme.

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#31 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: depends on experience/education

A kid that just graduated high school that comes in as a green hand, I start at $12/hr

If you have at least a year of construction or preferably welding, but no NDE I'll start you at $14.

Have NDE experience but don't have any certs than $15

Have at least three years and have been certed in PT, MT, and RT I start at $18. Five years and certs you get $20.

Have an advanced cert in shearwave UT $26.

Certed in Phase to Ray, you get $32

Have an API cert (I'm actually pretty desperate for an API 550 in Texas,) $35.

Are you a CWI? $35 or higher depending on how many years you have.

I offer insurance, but no 401k matching currently. I do have a merryl Lynch adviser that will come to the office and help you get set up with a 401k, NRA, or whatever fits you best.

Raises annually based on performance. 2 weeks vacation after a year, 3 weeks after 3 years. 4 weeks after 5 years.

Also a pay bump with every level II cert you earn. Big bumps if you earn an API or CWI.

You pay for your certs, or I pay for them and you sign a 3 year contract that you will stay employed with me. I'm not paying for your certs just for you to turn around and work somewhere else.

And of course everything is negotiable.

Edit: if you're on the road you get $110 a day in per diem

Those are not bad

And Texas is not far from me so something to consider and I do speak a bit of Spanish

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#32 deactivated-5e9044657a310
Member since 2005 • 8136 Posts

@Jacanuk: almost all of my Texas guys are bilingual.

An API requires 3 years of experience before ASNT will even let you test. Unless you have a bachelor's.

A CWI is 5 years experience, and off the top of my head 2 years with a bachelor. May be 3

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#33 Jacanuk
Member since 2011 • 20281 Posts
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: almost all of my Texas guys are bilingual.

An API requires 3 years of experience before ASNT will even let you test. Unless you have a bachelor's.

A CWI is 5 years experience, and off the top of my head 2 years with a bachelor. May be 3

Ok, not bad

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#34 mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 19200 Posts

@Nuck81: No worries, it just threw me a bit.

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#35 N64DD
Member since 2015 • 13167 Posts
@Jacanuk said:
@Nuck81 said:

@Jacanuk: almost all of my Texas guys are bilingual.

An API requires 3 years of experience before ASNT will even let you test. Unless you have a bachelor's.

A CWI is 5 years experience, and off the top of my head 2 years with a bachelor. May be 3

Ok, not bad

Apply! Money is money man.

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#36 judaspete
Member since 2005 • 4183 Posts

Okay, come on. This is hardly a free-fall. But I wouldn't call it an economic miracle either.

Either way, things are going to have to get a lot worse before it would effect Trump's reelection chances. We'll see how the next year plays out.

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#37 joebones5000
Member since 2016 • 3209 Posts

@n64dd said:
@Nuck81 said:

The president of bankruptcy continues his war against the American worker, and the historic economy he inherited from President Obama.

Jobs gained only 75,000 last month, far short of the estimate of 180,000.

Job reports for April and march were also reduced as the number if jobs was over reported for those months.

Labor participation is at 62%

For comparison.

Job gains

Obama’s last 28 months: 6112000

Trump’s first 28 months: 5475000

But at least Republicans can claim the president of bankruptcy responsible for shameless corruption, free rein to polluters, war on Medicare, and bottomless dishonesty.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/06/07/nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-rate-may-2019.html?__twitter_impression=true

Trump inherited Obama's economy, this is trumps economy, we're still in obama's economy, obama inherited bush's economy.

It changes depending on your narrative.

Every president inherits the previous' economy. Trump's entire first year was Obama's last budget. Now we're starting to see the damage that Trump and republicons do to economies. It happens every single time people are dumb enough to elect them.

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#38 deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51
Member since 2004 • 57548 Posts

You sound like one of those ppl that want the economy to fail.

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#39 Kadin_Kai
Member since 2015 • 1406 Posts

I think it is fairly safe to expect the US and the rest of the world will head into recession next year here are some reasons.

1. The economy is cyclical. It crashed at the end of the Bush administration and climbed under Obama (albeit with QE1, QE2 and QE infinity). So we are due for a hit soonish, end of this year before summer next year.

2. US-China trade war. Obviously jobs have been lost on both sides already. Less discussed openly are the wider implications, the negative effect on other countries.

3. US-Mexico trade war. Similar to the above but to a small extent since Mexico is a smaller but still significant economy.

4. US-Iran relations. Sanctions on Iran has made global oil prices higher. And if the US does attack Iran expect oil prices to jump. This raises the cost of production for EVERYTHING.

5. US short term tax cuts. Tax cuts for middle and lower classes will go back up as they were not written into law unlike the cuts for the rich.

6. Brexit and the European Union is suffering from a lot of uncertainty. Investing in the UK is risky and will remain so for years ahead.

7. Potential disintegration of the European Union. The Union is still on thin ice after the election of some parties which want to break it up.

So which countries are safer?

Countries with high interest rates will be safer. Their central banks can lower the rate to stimulate the economy. It is right that the Federal Reserve increased rates in the past two years other wise when the economy weakens you have limited monetary tools.

Countries with deep pockets will also be safer. Their governments can initiate fiscal tools and build infrastructure.

The counties with low interest rates and high government debt will be those with little to no tools to stimulate a weak economy.

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#40 deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51
Member since 2004 • 57548 Posts

I'm always of the opinion that the economy rises and falls more on its own factors than anything in particular a president does. President usually get too much credit or too much blame for an economy's performance. That being said, I dont like 2 things trump has done. 1) His tax cut. Was not needed and it has further raised our already outrageous debt. We will need the government to be able to intervene if an economic crisis happens and this hamstrings that ability. 2) His trade disputes. They haven't derailed trade yet, but they seem pointless and potentially could cause serious setbacks.

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#41  Edited By mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 19200 Posts

@sonicare said:I'm always of the opinion that the economy rises and falls more on its own factors than anything in particular a president does. President usually get too much credit or too much blame for an economy's performance. That being said, I dont like 2 things trump has done. 1) His tax cut. Was not needed and it has further raised our already outrageous debt. We will need the government to be able to intervene if an economic crisis happens and this hamstrings that ability. 2) His trade disputes. They haven't derailed trade yet, but they seem pointless and potentially could cause serious setbacks.

Don't fall into the trap Kittennose used to. President's definitely get too much credit/blame for the economy, and many of the effects of their policies are felt years later. But that DOESN'T mean that A) they don't have effects and B) that many of those effects aren't felt in the short term.

One big reason that the phrase that the president gets too much credit/blame for the economy holds true is that his actions are usually limited without involving Congress. Note that one of the things you mentioned (tax cuts) went through Congress and the other (trade disputes) is one of the rare situations in which the president can make broad unilateral decisions, both of which unquestionably have an immediate effect on the economy.

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#42 deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51
Member since 2004 • 57548 Posts

@mattbbpl said:

Slight different subject, but what do you think of the economy? Are we heading to a big fall? I don't know, myself. I think it's easy for people to predict a market crash because the markets always do go down at some point. I suspect we have a 20% correction if not upwards of a 40% one coming at some point. But that's just looking at the cyclical nature of things. I've heard mixed reports on the economy itself,. Some praising growth and others predicting bad news. I just wish I had a crystal ball so I could adjust my portfolio.

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#43  Edited By mattbbpl
Member since 2006 • 19200 Posts

@sonicare: I try to stay out of the economic prognostication business, lol.

I can say that a lot of recent measurements have been indicative of underlying weakness. Two months ago I was reasonably sure it was noise in the data. It's starting to look more like a trend, but the situation could change tomorrow.

So who knows?

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#44 musicalmac  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 25029 Posts

Satire?

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#45 deactivated-5f9e3c6a83e51
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@musicalmac said:

Satire?

Wishful thinking on the part of some people. I'd like to see Trump lose next election, but I'm not hoping and praying for an economic collapse to facilitate that. Some people just want to cut off the nose to spite the face. partisanship at it's finest.

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#46 musicalmac  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 25029 Posts

@sonicare said:
@musicalmac said:

Satire?

Wishful thinking on the part of some people. I'd like to see Trump lose next election, but I'm not hoping and praying for an economic collapse to facilitate that. Some people just want to cut off the nose to spite the face. partisanship at it's finest.

As POTUS might say, "Sad."