Disappointing jobs report, Shortages, Inflation, does anyone care?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-adds-just-194-000-jobs-in-september-as-delta-worsens-labor-shortage-11633697488

U.S. adds just 194,000 jobs in September as more people drop out of the labor force

"The numbers: The economy created a stingy 194,000 new jobs in September to mark the second disappointing monthly increase in a row, suggesting a lack of labor could frustrate a robust U.S. economic recovery in the months ahead.

The increase in hiring fell well short of Wall Street’s forecast, exacerbated by a decline in employment at public schools. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 500,000 new jobs.

The private sector added 317,000 workers last month, but state and local employment fell by 123,000.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 4.8% from 5.2% and touched a new pandemic low."

Also inflation on energy.... not looking good.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-crunch-stokes-inflation-economic-recovery-fears-2021-10-12/

Energy crunch stokes inflation, economic recovery concerns

"Oil rose towards $84 a barrel on Tuesday, within sight of a three-year high, as a rebound in global demand after the COVID-19 pandemic caused price spikes and shortages in other energy sources. Coal has scaled record peaks and gas prices remain four times higher in Europe than at the start of 2021.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers led by Russia, is increasing output monthly to address recovering demand as it undoes curbs it put in place to support prices and oversupply.

The price of Brent crude has surged by more than 60% this year, supported by those OPEC+ supply curbs as well as record European gas prices, which have encouraged a switch to oil in some places.

Brent crude was up 24 cents or 0.3% at $83.89 a barrel at 0810 GMT. On Monday it reached $84.60, its highest since October 2018. U.S. oil gained 21 cents or 0.3% to $80.73 and on Monday hit $82.18, its highest since late 2014.

The sharp rise has meant OPEC+ has come under pressure from consumer nations, with a U.S. official on Monday saying the White House stands by its calls for oil-producing countries to "do more" to ease the situation.

A Russian official said on Tuesday that energy giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) has started using its inventories to pump more natural gas into the pipeline network to stabilise surging prices.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, in a BBC interview, rejected any suggestion that Russia was withholding gas from the European market. A group of European Parliament lawmakers has asked the European Commission to investigate Gazprom's role in the rising prices.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday the country wants to be a leader in green hydrogen by 2030 and build new, smaller nuclear reactors as part of a 30 billion euro ($35 billion) investment plan.

And in Japan, electricity prices have risen to nine-month highs this week as gains in global prices of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal are starting to feed through to the country's $150 billion power market."

Even with material shortages, energy shortages, food shortages, labor shortages, the stuff we can get... we are having a hard time unloading.. https://www.businessinsider.com/largest-us-port-breaks-multiple-record-cargo-ships-import-delays-2021-9

The largest port in the US hit a new ship-backlog record every day last week, as 65 massive container boats float off the California coast

The Southern California ports that are responsible for almost half of all US imports hit a new record every day last week.

Over the past week, the queue of ships waiting to unload at the ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach have lengthened by 10 ships. On Friday, the ports had 65 cargo ships stuck at anchor or in drift areas waiting for spots to open up to dock and unload. The ports, which are a primary thoroughfare for key imports between Asia and the US, had 147 ships in the locations, including 95 hulking cargo ships on Friday — both new records.

Things do not look good right now, I fear economic collapse.

Is anyone else worried about where the economy is going?

Seriously... There are so many problems right now... from labor, to materials, energy, distribution, its all a ******* mess...

Talked to a guy the other day who ordered a nob for his dishwasher that broke... $50 and was told it will get to him by June 2022... ITS A KNOB FOR CHRIST SAKE... AND 50$ FOR A KNOB...

Facetious example... but I think you get my point... its everything, lumber, metals, microchips, food, appliances, furniture...

How do you guys feel about the future of the economy? Right now I'm dreading it.

Somebody make me feel better.

please..

Well now that the extra unemployment money is now gone as of September 8th everything should go back to normal, right? That's what Republicans keep saying.

@Serraph105: ughhhh... Well that response does not make me feel better. Personally I don't think we need more unemployment benefits when businesses are struggling to find people right now.

People are wrong to think that's just going to magically fix it.. but having those benefits certainly won't fix any of these problems...

Well, that will be a good start. People aren't going to work if they're getting paid more not to.

Job Migration is affecting the workforce much more than the modest unemployment. People are leaving low-wage jobs for greener pastures. Here ya go:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/record-4-3-million-workers-walked-job-august-n1281377

Edit: Many of these better jobs are open because 30+ million baby boomers just up and retired during Covid.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/11/19/nearly-30-million-baby-boomers-forced-into-unwanted-retirement/

OMG workers have leverage, it's the bible times!

Of course we care, but pointing fingers at Biden isnt helping.

@thenation: nobody brought up Biden....

@sargentd: I think most of this should be expected.

The rate of hiring post opening up should decline after the initial surge. I think some analysts were simply too optimistic. I think the issue is timing.

Higher oil and gas prices can be attributed to both winter and re-opening of economies.

That plus a weaker USD spurs higher demand for dollar denominated commodities. Plus the increase in USD supply spurs futures trading and since 90% of physical oil is based on the futures market ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI it also pushes up physical oil.

Inflation is obviously linked to higher money supply and higher energy costs. And since petrochemical prices lag behind upstream crude oil and products all round inflation is inevitable.

We’re still in a pandemic and transitioning from shutdown to re-opening. There will be imbalances and arbitrage opportunities in the next few months.

So nothing to worry about.

@sargentd: He is the sitting president, he is getting all the heat for this. Nobody had to.

Well yeah, no matter whos president... if shit is looking this ruff they will catch flak.... Maybe his handlers will think of a way to help fix this stuff.

This pretty much proves that the unemployment benefits weren't keeping these people at home. Benefits started rolling back in late summer with the last states to stop the addition in September. What we saw were smaller gains in employment in states that actually ended the bonus benefits EARLIER. This is the exact opposite of what conservative commentators were saying back in summer.

What we're actually seeing is probably multi-faceted. COVID is still very prevalent and people are reluctant to return to work in industries that expose them to high risk, or they're unable to, due to home care for children, etc. Essentially, it's COVID related. With that being said, many people are probably having a mini-epiphany and using new found leverage to leave their jobs for better paying pastures. This is a good thing. We're finally seeing the ball being placed in the court of the worker giving them leverage. This doesn't happen very often, perhaps once in a generation.

If a company is having difficulty filling positions I'd wager their compensation doesn't match their job requirements. You'd think some of these pro market libertarians would applaud the sight of workers dictating compensation via demand pressure. Instead we're seeing the top 1% complain that people aren't wasting away in low paying jobs just so they can please shareholders.

@kadin_kai: reasonable response, not sure if I fully agree with nothing to worry about though. I hope recovery does not turn into long term recession.

But reasonable take, so thanks god bless 🙏

The stock market certainly does not care and as long as the stock market is doing good, the bigwigs at the top don't care either, because to them the stock market = the economy.

Things are pretty... interesting. I refinanced and got a 15 year mortgage for 2.2%... and my house has more than doubled in value. Hell, one of my neighbors sold their house for almost 700k. (I got mine for 250k and similar size) I question how sustainable it is, especially since interest rates can only go so low--inflation being a hot issue too.

@sargentd: Most of this is out of his control, just a natural outcome due to a pandemic. Just need to ride it out and not make it worse. Not sure what can be done.

As long as we have the current administration things are only going to get worse. The majority of the current problems are self inflicted.

Not a response to a pandemic, simply the wrong response to it. We've known from the beginning that lockdown, mandates, and shutting down jobs was going to cause more problems than it solved. And yet, you people call for even more.

Time for a worker's revolution.

We're all doing the work of 2-3 people and if we just said "You know what, boss? I'm going home after 8 hours and I think I'm going to take a two-day weekend, too, since I already have 50 hours on the clock this week" things might change for the better. If we all did it.

Eat the rich. Demand a 4-day, 40-hour work week. Abolish the for-profit healthcare system.

HOLY SHIT! 30 million?!?!?!

Also, just something I've noticed among people my age (30-somethings and late 20's) and in my field, they want happiness. I've seen a lot of people take lower-paying jobs (not that much lower, but still lower) over their current one because they want to be happy, not overly well paid.

Damn that seems too good to be true.

My parents saw a good return on their home but they've also lived there since 1972.

I thought a massive chunk of the left believe the economy is great under Biden?

In fact, this is one of the worst economies seen in decades if not a century. Thanks China.

Yeah, they do have a pool though and are on a bigger lot than me. I think mine would go for around 600, if Redfin's estimates are s anything to go by. Either way, it's very tempting to take that cash and run. Move out of state and start my own business, but with a newborn along with all my family in California, they might murder me.

@sargentd: "@Serraph105: ughhhh... Well that response does not make me feel better. Personally I don't think we need more unemployment benefits when businesses are struggling to find people right now.

People are wrong to think that's just going to magically fix it.. but having those benefits certainly won't fix any of these problems..."

Yeah, it shouldn't make you feel better. The data doesn't support this assumption/belief. If anything it means people who can't find a job also have virtually no extra money to spend, slowing down the recovery even more.

inflation and housing bubble is because of the 0% interest rates set by the Fed. But neither dems or republicans will ever raise interest rates for whatever reason.

This time around I think pushing a green economy should be prioritized over the economy. But thats a discussion that the leaders of each country need to have, not just us. End of the day, what we do don't matter if china is belching out fumes non stop, and india also.

Central bank of Norway has already increased the interest rates by 0.25%.

That means jobs needs to pay better.

does norway have a housing bubble or high inflation? Honestly, its time to raise interest rates, the fed need to grow a sack.

Don't forget paying people "bonus" money to sit home. Between stimuli and extra federal monies for unemployment, well, you know where I am going.

And you'd be wrong. But keep going. I like the entertainment.

@Solaryellow: What bonus money? That ended in September.

Potential housing bubble as interest rates has been fairly low ever since financial crisis in 2008. If the economy develops as expected, there will be another 4 raises of 0.25% each the next for 4 quarters or so. I do wonder if I will ever see interest rates in the range of what my parents would call normal.

Inflation is high in some areas due to lack of supply.

And perhaps employers in US needs to realise they got to pay more money.

Yup. And they're not coming back, which means people are skipping over the low-wage, unpredictable hours, and highly physical jobs and filling the much higher positions 30 Million Baby Boomers just vacated.

It's going to take a lot more than $12 an hour to get people working those shitty jobs.

This is THE FREE MARKET at work. I thought that's what the Republicans liked?

@br0kenrabbit: They only like it when it benefits them, its socialism when it doesnt.

Then call me comrade!

Crazy idea, but what if we actually used profits to pay workers a fair and livable wage to come back to work?

Bingo. If labor is in demand they it should follow that wages should rise and follow suite. After all, we're so used to seeing the opposite happen, even recently with the great recession. Not enough jobs so people are willing to work for peanuts. The opposite should hold true.

We know, the economy is so hot that there are more jobs than can be filled and our primary bottleneck is a global supply shortage.

It's the greatest jobs market of our generation.

Part of me wants to think this is similar to the wealth redistribution that happened in 1300's Europe following the first wave of the Black Death. Albeit, 1/3 of us aren't dead. But the sentiment is definitely there.

Its a double edged sword.

I currently sell for a contractor, we build both residential and commercial. The cost of materials has been at extremely high levels.

In the 5 years I've been doing this. I've never seen more than 1 price increase a year, this year alone we have had 4 price increases and are expecting to increase prices again in December...

The cost to build new homes right now is insane, which is driving the value of existing homes through the roof right now.

Its an absolute sellers market right now.. you can get a lot more for your home than what its actually worth due to demand and shortages.

Back in March pressure treated lumber hit insane levels to the point where it was cheaper to build a composite deck than it was to build a wooden deck. A sheet of OSB which was $11 pre covid hit upwards of $90 this March... It started to come down but is now going back up again $60-$70 range currently. Family friend of mine had to cancel 6 contracts for 4-5 bedroom homes he was supposed to build. Had to go back to the customer and ask for an additional 35-50k. Most decided to wait.

FED wants to keep interest rates low for now because the prices are so high people wont buy unless it is low.

Met several people who have taken advantage of current market and sold, but then have a hard time finding a place to buy afterwards, one guy I talked to who sold recently and is currently renting, says he's going to wait for the pop and then buy because everything where he was trying to move to is way overpriced lol

Worth it for sure if you plan on selling in the city buying in the country.

Well when you own a business, sure, go for it, put all your company's earnings into wages.

Hopefully it's all those right wing nutters quitting their jobs in refusal of vaccinations. Might be some job openings for those people who need new career opportunities.

Must be hard to imagine, when they pay you in scraps on the ruble farm.

We socialize losses for the rich. Why TF wouldn't we find a way to keep wages down?

Wages are only down when there are more workers in an industry than that industry needs. If someone is always willing to work a job at a lower price, would you give them more? Not if you were remotely good at business. You pay labor for its value. Not what some yahoo thinks they deserve. When there are more jobs than people to fill them, then wages go up because employers have to compete over a smaller labor pool. If you want wages to go up, keep the labor pool small. Unions learned this long ago. It's not rocket science.

You know I'd really like to live in this dream world of yours where the system works like it should (and used to), but unfortunately there are too many wealthy predators out there with too much influence to let that happen.

It does work like it should. What makes you think it doesn't? Because some high school drop out bagging groceries at Walmart, literally a job ANYONE 16 and older, with or without an education, or even the next bum who walks in off the street could do, can't earn what you call a "living wage?" You think that's because of "wealthy predators?" Yeah, business owners have more money than you, boo hoo. That's never changed.

Can you even describe what a "living wage" entails in specifics? It's a buzzword with no real meaning. If you want to earn more money, acquiring job skills and education are the way to do it. But don't expect you're going to own your own home with a recent model car in the garage flipping burgers. That kind of labor just doesn't have much value to it, and that's why those are minimum wage jobs. Nothing has changed. It's just people like you suddenly feel you're entitled to things you're not. People 20 years ago didn't.

@eoten: Idunno man, but I'd like to live in a world where all of us get what we need, and a little bit of what we want.

I don't think someone bagging groceries should have to really worry about the necessities; you know, food, rent, medical, etc.. Yeah their job isn't as high-profile as a doctor or someone working in construction but FFS there's so much money out there no one should need to suffer, work themselves to an early grave, and so on and so forth.

You're working, doing your small part for the world, you should be OK. But don't listen to me, I'm just one of those godless socialists you always read about.

@mattbbpl said:

@mrbojangles25 said:

@eoten said:

Wages are only down when there are more workers in an industry than that industry needs. If someone is always willing to work a job at a lower price, would you give them more? Not if you were remotely good at business. You pay labor for its value. Not what some yahoo thinks they deserve. When there are more jobs than people to fill them, then wages go up because employers have to compete over a smaller labor pool. If you want wages to go up, keep the labor pool small. Unions learned this long ago. It's not rocket science.

You know I'd really like to live in this dream world of yours where the system works like it should (and used to), but unfortunately there are too many wealthy predators out there with too much influence to let that happen.

Ok ok ok fair enough hahahahahaha

Cost of living has increased over the last 20 years while wages have not, yet companies are making record profit and you think that's working? Spare us.

Yes, a world full of warm hugs and sweet sweet lullabies from your fellow person or birthing person. A connective yearn for the altruism and egalitarian ideals - from each according to their ability, to each according to their needs! Erosion of adversity, for the greater good, comrade.

These responses are so tired.

Person A: "Wages for workers have stalled for decades after rising with productivity half a century prior to that. Wouldn't it be nice if workers experienced some of those gains again?"

Person B: "OK communist, LOL."