Canadian Election Day

Monday. All the polls predict a virtual tie in popular vote between the Liberals and Conservatives, with neither having much chance at a majority gov't. Which most likely means a minority gov't led by the Liberals with the NDP propping them up. So it will be much like the last 4 yrs with a slight move to the left.

The most interesting variable could be Quebec as the Bloc could do very well if they get their vote out. If that happens then it could be closer between the Libs and Cons. Given the terrible track record of the current Liberal gov't and the scandals it has had, this failure on the Conservative side will go down as a major blown chance. Chalk it up to a mediocre leader in Scheer and a total loser in the Ontario premier in Doug Ford (who is a mini Trump populist) and who has turned off that province to the Conservative brand.

I will predict:

Liberals at 139

Conservatives at 122

Bloc Quebecois at 40

NDP at 34

Green at 1

PPC at 1

Independent at 1 (JWR wins)

That's pretty much my predictions as well. Although I wouldn't be that surprised if conservatives win the most seats with a minority government. It seems really close.

another ****ing first past the post election, ****

Yeah, Liberal minority government.

The Bloc is so annoying lol.

Not a bad night all things considered. The liberals were taken down a notch and the conservatives kept far from power.

I was going to vote conservative (I even have their sign on my lawn), but I switched to PPC as I like Max’s policies more and the PCs tried to pull a fast one by smearing him. They didn’t even need to do that as our federally funded (Liberal) media was already in full swing doing just that.

Hopefully Max stays with the PPC and get their word out better. Hell, many Canadians don’t even know they exist and the ones who do have been fed utter lies.

Also, I’m assuming you watch a lot of Left wing media because as an Ontarian, we love our Doug Ford. Such a breath of fresh air over that Liberal mess we suffered with for a few cycles.

@Sevenizz: lol, what? Quite a take. Doug Ford is hated here in Ontario and his approval ratings are already lower than Wynne’s has ever been. Hell, he’s hated so much the federal Tories had to tell him to hide from public view during the federal election. There’s already reporting that Ford’s government hurt the federal Tories.

YFB must be happy the bloc did better than 2011 and 2015 but does not hold the balance of power in this minority government even though he was secretly hoping for a liberal majority. I predicted this result quite easily even though I was off by a tiny bit.

@leicam6: What media do you follow?

I try to follow everything from right-leaning sources like The Globe and Mail, CTV, and National Post, to establishment sources like the CBC, to dry coverage like CPAC.

I'd like you to elaborate on "Also, I’m assuming you watch a lot of Left wing media because as an Ontarian, we love our Doug Ford."

It's really an interesting take and I'm very curious as to how you've reached this conclusion because it goes against all evidence. What ever gave you the idea that Doug Ford is "loved" in Ontario? I'm an Ontarian and he's the worst Premier we have had since Mike Harris. Ford is an uneducated buffoon who I wouldn't even feel comfortable with running a lemonade stand, never mind the most populated and economically powerful province in the country. During the election campaign he couldn't even explain how a bill became a law. His approval ratings have cratered to historic lows.

His social cuts have gone towards the most vulnerable in society and he's had to go back on them anyway because of how unpopular he is. Ford's government for example totally caved to the teachers' union and gave them everything they wanted lol. He is running an even larger deficit than Wynne while also giving tax cuts to the rich, and then there's his corrupt patronage appointments.

But that's neither here nor there, since you may agree with such terrible governing yourself, I don't know. However, it could not be more evident of the province's dislike of the Premier based off the fact that Andrew Scheer refused to mention him by name during the election campaign, and even campaigned a few kilometres away from Ford's house by trotting out Jason Kenney, the premier from Alberta. Scheer and the federal Tories knew that Ford is toxic in his own riding and province he tried to distance himself as far away from Ford as he could. Trudeau knew this too hence he invoked Ford's name every chance he could. And thus the Liberals managed to flip Ford's riding of Etobicoke North and elect a Liberal there, so clearly it worked.

I mostly took offence to the implication that, I, an Ontarian, love Doug Ford. Doug Ford is not loved in Ontario - it is in fact the complete opposite. You may personally like him as a Premier, I can't fathom why, but that's not the same as the rest of the province's views on him.

LOL. What?

June 7 2018

Doug Ford and Conservatives get elected in Ontario with the following vote shares:

Conservative 40.5%

NDP 33.6%

Liberal 19.6%

Federal election 16 months later:

Conservative 33.2%

NDP 16.8%

Liberal 41.4%

The Federal Election was lost in Ontario.

Nationally it was 157 Liberals vs 121 Conservatives

In Ontario it was:

Liberal 79 seats

Conservative 36 seats

All that was required was 19 more ridings going conservative instead of liberal. That didn't happen because Doug Ford is generally despised and the Conservatives lost all important urban ridings. All he had to do was deliver near the same results as in the provincial election. Instead they lost 7% of the popular vote from just 16 months ago and the Conservatives got blown out in Ontario. Doug Ford is cancer to the Conservative brand.

You are completely delusional.

@SUD123456: Federal and provincial parties of the same affiliation have little to do with either. Which is why you don’t often see one endorse the other.

‘ You are completely delusional.’

Says the guy who can’t differentiate the two...

Oh yeah? Is that why Jason Kenney was campaigning in Doug Ford's riding with Andrew Scheer? They may not be "the same party" per say, but they do coordinate together because they have the same political goals and ideology.

I'd still like to see proof of the claim that Doug Ford is loved in Ontario.

That is total nonsense. The link is the general preferences of voters and the policy/philosophical positioning of the federal vs provincial parties is generally the same.

Sometimes the same party affiliation have specific policy differences driven by regional/provincial perspectives vs federal perspectives and the difference in powers between levels of gov't. That can in limited cases play out as material differences in support from the same voter base that would otherwise have the same general preference.

Most of the time where their isn't endorsement between affiliated parties is because of the political liability associated with endorsement from a deeply unpopular leader or government. In this case, the premier of Ontario has terrible popularity ratings relative to his election results only 16 months early. Indeed, he is such a liability that the Federal party didn't want Scheer and Ford appearing together.

Doug Ford became premier with 40% of the vote in June 2018.

Doug Ford's popularity rate 15 months later in Sept 2019 was 26%.

In Sept, half of those polled in Ontario said the actual performance of Doug Ford and his government would sway their Federal vote. Of that half, 85% of them said that the 'policies and actions' of the provincial gov't would make them less likely to support Scheer and the Federal Conservatives.

It cannot be clearer what a cancer Doug Ford is for the conservative brand at both the Provincial and Federal levels.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/exclusive-poll-reveals-doug-ford-factor-a-big-problem-for-scheers-conservatives-in-ontario

@SUD123456: Still haven’t learned anything about how polls are mostly bullshit, eh?

@Sevenizz: It’s quite obvious you are a troll as you are still dodging my posts and clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

@leicam6: @SUD123456: ://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/federal-election-2019-results-ontario-doug-ford-andrew-scheer

The author ignores that if Scheer trotted out Ford, it would invite more people to turn out to vote against Scheer because he brought Ford out. Ford is poison at this point in Ontario and Scheer was right to distance himself from him.

Not a fan of either Scheer or Trudeau, so I suppose a minority government was the best outcome. It's going to be interesting to see how the Bloc's increased influence will play out.