California special election TOMORROW - Democrats in panic mode!

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VirusVaccine21

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Poll California special election TOMORROW - Democrats in panic mode! (24 votes)

The Democrat, Christy Smith will win. 50%
The Republican, Mike Garcia will flip. 50%
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https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-05-10/california-special-congressional-election-mike-garcia-christy-smith

Okay, so first off. Special elections aren't usually a big deal but this one has been getting a lot of attention, because California hasn't had a congressional seat flip in 20 years. However, due to the recent resignation of Katie Hill due to having sexual indiscretions with congressional staffers - it's the whole scandal backlash we've seen before and it tends to flip seats... and this is exactly what's happening. Garcia is leading in the polls as much as 7 points, which is sending democrats into full blow panic mode. Now, if the seat flips, for me it has nothing to do with the pandemic nor a red uprising in California but again the scandal backlash that flips seats. Also, do note, Mike Garcia is a fantastic candidate. Businessman and former navy pilot.

I'd like to have an actual good discussion here.

Anyhow, my prediction. It's going to be very close, but ultimately Smith wins due to the demographics. Note this is the most conservative district in California with an older population, but it went for 6 points to Clinton in 2016, but Romney won it in 2012. That's why I think that it might just be getting bluer, but I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans win and if they do, holy damn will it be a victory lap.

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Drunk_PI

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#1 Drunk_PI
Member since 2014 • 3358 Posts

Not knowing much of the district but considering Katie Hill's scandal and resignation and considering the district was held by a Republican prior to Katie Hill, I'll say it might go the Garcia. Christy might be more qualified and capable but the taint from Katie just screws it up.

It'll probably be close but it'll go to Garcia. That's my educated guess.

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VirusVaccine21

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#2 VirusVaccine21
Member since 2020 • 748 Posts

@drunk_pi said:

Not knowing much of the district but considering Katie Hill's scandal and resignation and considering the district was held by a Republican prior to Katie Hill, I'll say it might go the Garcia. Christy might be more qualified and capable but the taint from Katie just screws it up.

It'll probably be close but it'll go to Garcia. That's my educated guess.

This, honestly I do believe he has a 50/50 chance, still picking Smith but anything goes tomorrow. Eitherway, the media will have a field day if Garcia pulls it off.

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#3 Drunk_PI
Member since 2014 • 3358 Posts

@virusvaccine21 said:
@drunk_pi said:

Not knowing much of the district but considering Katie Hill's scandal and resignation and considering the district was held by a Republican prior to Katie Hill, I'll say it might go the Garcia. Christy might be more qualified and capable but the taint from Katie just screws it up.

It'll probably be close but it'll go to Garcia. That's my educated guess.

This, honestly I do believe he has a 50/50 chance, still picking Smith but anything goes tomorrow. Eitherway, the media will have a field day if Garcia pulls it off.

It could go either way. A poll suggests that Garcia could win and the seat has always been held by a Republican until Katie Hill's win. The district is more diverse than I thought but I don't think it'll mean much. I'm thinking that the GOP is energized in that district; Garcia appeals to everyone, including Hispanics; and less people will vote because of Katie Hill.

You think Smith has a chance?

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VirusVaccine21

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#4  Edited By VirusVaccine21
Member since 2020 • 748 Posts

@drunk_pi said:
@virusvaccine21 said:
@drunk_pi said:

Not knowing much of the district but considering Katie Hill's scandal and resignation and considering the district was held by a Republican prior to Katie Hill, I'll say it might go the Garcia. Christy might be more qualified and capable but the taint from Katie just screws it up.

It'll probably be close but it'll go to Garcia. That's my educated guess.

This, honestly I do believe he has a 50/50 chance, still picking Smith but anything goes tomorrow. Eitherway, the media will have a field day if Garcia pulls it off.

It could go either way. A poll suggests that Garcia could win and the seat has always been held by a Republican until Katie Hill's win. The district is more diverse than I thought but I don't think it'll mean much. I'm thinking that the GOP is energized in that district; Garcia appeals to everyone, including Hispanics; and less people will vote because of Katie Hill.

You think Smith has a chance?

Yeah, because of the demographics she could pull off a narrow victory, but again, I do get your point. There's more of a chance that Garcia wins than her, but we'll see later tonight :D

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#5  Edited By VirusVaccine21
Member since 2020 • 748 Posts

1 hour left for results.

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#6  Edited By jeezers
Member since 2007 • 5341 Posts

Probably going to stay blue, i read a seat hasnt flipped red in cali in over 20 years

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iambatman7986

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#7 iambatman7986
Member since 2013 • 4569 Posts

Katie Hill should not have resigned. She did nothing that a large portion of men on both sides haven't done in their tenure.

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texasgoldrush

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#8 texasgoldrush
Member since 2003 • 14827 Posts

Garcia will win.

And the Dems deserve it. They not only failed to protect Hill, they almost got her killed.

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#9 judaspete
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@iambatman7986 said:

Katie Hill should not have resigned. She did nothing that a large portion of men on both sides haven't done in their tenure.

Yep.

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#10 VirusVaccine21
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@judaspete said:
@iambatman7986 said:

Katie Hill should not have resigned. She did nothing that a large portion of men on both sides haven't done in their tenure.

Yep.

I agree, but here we're

UPDATE: Garcia is leading by a landslide with 76% of the precents in, he's 55% to Smith's 44%. However, he said he would not declare victory yet. Tomorrow, we'll know the final results but it appears as if Garcia will indeed flip the district.

This also dispels the notion that mail-in ballots benefit the democrats.

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#11  Edited By texasgoldrush
Member since 2003 • 14827 Posts

@virusvaccine21 said:
@judaspete said:
@iambatman7986 said:

Katie Hill should not have resigned. She did nothing that a large portion of men on both sides haven't done in their tenure.

Yep.

I agree, but here we're

UPDATE: Garcia is leading by a landslide with 76% of the precents in, he's 55% to Smith's 44%. However, he said he would not declare victory yet. Tomorrow, we'll know the final results but it appears as if Garcia will indeed flip the district.

This also dispels the notion that mail-in ballots benefit the democrats.

I keep telling people.

Enthusiasm matters

And it went to show in this election. The Republican base was energized by Trump and Smith's major gaffe while the Dems were simply put, demoralized by Hill's resignation and Smith's poor campaign. Garcia was able to define Smith and Smith was unable to do it to Garcia.

Nevermind that Christy Smith opposed Medicare 4 All despite Hill winning backing it. I guess Dems just didn't vote. I wonder why.

Other than a Presidential primary, which is the outlier, enthusiasm matters. The campaign matters, and the candidate matters. This is what Dems do not get. And it may cost them with Biden.

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#12  Edited By Sevenizz
Member since 2010 • 6462 Posts

This is great news for Republicans and shows how voters don’t buy the constant attacks the media throws at Trump - a lot of fake news.

But wow, very low turnouts by young people and minority groups. Why is that? You’d think it’d be the opposite given who we see complaining about Trump the most. Or...are they really the complainers as the media tells us they are? Fake news, perhaps?

November’s gonna be fun - on a few levels!

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#13 texasgoldrush
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@Sevenizz said:

This is great news for Republicans and shows how voters don’t buy the constant attacks the media throws at Trump - a lot of fake news.

But wow, very low turnouts by young people and minority groups. Why is that? You’d think it’d be the opposite given who we see complaining about Trump the most. Or...are they really the complainers as the media tells us they are? Fake news, perhaps?

November’s gonna be fun - on a few levels!

Because young voters do not like centrist candidates. And young voters do not view Trump as the root of the problem but a symptom.

Smith was far more centrist than Hill was, and unlike Hill, opposed medicare for all.

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#14 judaspete
Member since 2005 • 7201 Posts

@texasgoldrush said:
@virusvaccine21 said:
@judaspete said:
@iambatman7986 said:

Katie Hill should not have resigned. She did nothing that a large portion of men on both sides haven't done in their tenure.

Yep.

I agree, but here we're

UPDATE: Garcia is leading by a landslide with 76% of the precents in, he's 55% to Smith's 44%. However, he said he would not declare victory yet. Tomorrow, we'll know the final results but it appears as if Garcia will indeed flip the district.

This also dispels the notion that mail-in ballots benefit the democrats.

I keep telling people.

Enthusiasm matters

And it went to show in this election. The Republican base was energized by Trump and Smith's major gaffe while the Dems were simply put, demoralized by Hill's resignation and Smith's poor campaign. Garcia was able to define Smith and Smith was unable to do it to Garcia.

Nevermind that Christy Smith opposed Medicare 4 All despite Hill winning backing it. I guess Dems just didn't vote. I wonder why.

Other than a Presidential primary, which is the outlier, enthusiasm matters. The campaign matters, and the candidate matters. This is what Dems do not get. And it may cost them with Biden.

God, I keep having this conversation. There was a member of my family, who is actually more liberal than me, saying Michael Bloomberg would destroy Trump. Like voters work on some sliding scale, and if a Democrat goes more conservative they will steal voters from Republicans. It's crazy how long they've up this failed strategy.

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#15 VirusVaccine21
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@Sevenizz said:

This is great news for Republicans and shows how voters don’t buy the constant attacks the media throws at Trump - a lot of fake news.

But wow, very low turnouts by young people and minority groups. Why is that? You’d think it’d be the opposite given who we see complaining about Trump the most. Or...are they really the complainers as the media tells us they are? Fake news, perhaps?

November’s gonna be fun - on a few levels!

You forget that Trump and the republicans have been losing local state seats and governor races for the past 2 years. I know you're a Trump fanboy, but you don't really add anything to this thread. I like the others more objective view on this thread.

I think pretty much everyone said that Garcia was going to win, again I know you're blind to do your own research and facts but historically someone tied to a scandal in a congressional seat helps the opposite party flip that seat.

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#16  Edited By VirusVaccine21
Member since 2020 • 748 Posts
@texasgoldrush said:
@virusvaccine21 said:
@judaspete said:
@iambatman7986 said:

Katie Hill should not have resigned. She did nothing that a large portion of men on both sides haven't done in their tenure.

Yep.

I agree, but here we're

UPDATE: Garcia is leading by a landslide with 76% of the precents in, he's 55% to Smith's 44%. However, he said he would not declare victory yet. Tomorrow, we'll know the final results but it appears as if Garcia will indeed flip the district.

This also dispels the notion that mail-in ballots benefit the democrats.

I keep telling people.

Enthusiasm matters

And it went to show in this election. The Republican base was energized by Trump and Smith's major gaffe while the Dems were simply put, demoralized by Hill's resignation and Smith's poor campaign. Garcia was able to define Smith and Smith was unable to do it to Garcia.

Nevermind that Christy Smith opposed Medicare 4 All despite Hill winning backing it. I guess Dems just didn't vote. I wonder why.

Other than a Presidential primary, which is the outlier, enthusiasm matters. The campaign matters, and the candidate matters. This is what Dems do not get. And it may cost them with Biden.

Yes, and no. I would have completely agreed with you prior the democratic primaries, but we saw what happened. Older folks view Biden in a completely different way than young people, hence why he was able to outperform Obama with several demographics including blacks - and flip Bernie counties that he beat Hillary in 2016.

I think the general will be extremely competitive and up in the air, because let's be honest, most democrats won't be voting for Biden but because of their hatred for Trump. That alone will garner enthusiasm, in my opinion. That's why they were able to win an insane amount of local seats and governor races. 2019 was a disaster for the republicans.

I think in this case, as I mentioned before. It's not because of Trump. Garcias was an exceptional candidate, I'm a left-leaning independent and would have voted for him. Dem's shot themselves for making Hill resign and the county does have an older generation - being the more conservative in CALI.

Anyhow, I like the way you discuss the subject. :) Feel free the counter my points.

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#17 VirusVaccine21
Member since 2020 • 748 Posts

Garcia has officially won, but we still don't know the final results.

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#18 mrbojangles25
Member since 2005 • 58155 Posts

Well, this is certainly interesting and somewhat historical (maybe?).

Hill shoudln't have resigned; sure, she was a bit of a freak, but she did not actually break any rules from what I read (granted I am remembering this from an article a few months ago).

Democrats need to suck it up, stop being prudes, and stop with the holier-than-thou routine.

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#19 texasgoldrush
Member since 2003 • 14827 Posts

@virusvaccine21: However, Biden trails badly in enthusiasm, and his support in the primaries was more about him being able to beat Trump than actually truly supporting his policies. In fact, more primary voters sided with Sanders on policy than Trump. In fact in Iowa, with other moderates still in the race, seniors went for Buttigieg. Same in NH. Biden really wasn't seniors first choice.

Negative partisan enthusiasm matters more in midterms than in presidential generals and history shows this. Look at Obama, won his Presidential races, lost his midterms. Same with Clinton and Reagan. The opposite party of the President generally has more enthusiasm in midterms than the President's party. Dems should not be using 2018 as proof Trump will lose. Midterms are not predictive of the next election.

Garcia was not an exceptional candidate, Smith was a terrible one. She is downright a not charismatic awful candidate that doesn't energize the base.

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#20  Edited By VirusVaccine21
Member since 2020 • 748 Posts

@texasgoldrush said:

@virusvaccine21: However, Biden trails badly in enthusiasm, and his support in the primaries was more about him being able to beat Trump than actually truly supporting his policies. In fact, more primary voters sided with Sanders on policy than Trump. In fact in Iowa, with other moderates still in the race, seniors went for Buttigieg. Same in NH. Biden really wasn't seniors first choice.

Negative partisan enthusiasm matters more in midterms than in presidential generals and history shows this. Look at Obama, won his Presidential races, lost his midterms. Same with Clinton and Reagan. The opposite party of the President generally has more enthusiasm in midterms than the President's party. Dems should not be using 2018 as proof Trump will lose. Midterms are not predictive of the next election.

Garcia was not an exceptional candidate, Smith was a terrible one. She is downright a not charismatic awful candidate that doesn't energize the base.

Fair, analysis. Although, to be honest. I'm an indipendant. If you were to poll me right now saying if I'm excited for Biden (that's how they do it?), I'd say absolutely not. Even on a scale of 1-5, I'd put 1. I was and still am a Bernie supporter, and am disgusted at how the DNC treated him. However, If you were to say, who am I voting for - Biden. I'm not excited for Biden, but I'm going to vote on this election just because I dislike Trump. Note, I sat down in 2016, because I loathed Hillary.

I'm Hispanic, I also have a couple of friends that did not vote in 2016 but are pumped to vote now because they absolutely hate Trump. I'm just saying, that polls - enthusiasm and all of this aren't really giving us a clear picture, because ultimately I don't think a lot of people care about Biden but just dislike Trump.

Also, you mentioned 2018 but you also forget the insane amount of local elections and governor seats that flipped blue in 2019. But then, to your point, none of that is a factor, such as this election. I think ultimately this election is unpredictable. It will go down to voter turnout. Trumps base will show up, that's no doubt. But will his anti-democratic support show up in spades? We kind of forget, that Trump barely won a lot of the swing states over Hillary, by 1%. He hasn't really expanded his base in 4 years. So, I feel like this will go 50/50.