Avian Influenza virus now jumping from mammal to mammal

Yeah... this is really bad. Avian Flu was already a major threat, but there was always one thing that prevented it from becoming a pandemic. Its poor transmissability between mammals. That seems like it might no longer be the case.

Please our collective H5N1 response be better than our dismal COVID response.

When mink at a big farm in Galicia, a region in northwestern Spain, started to die in October 2022, veterinarians initially thought the culprit might be SARS-CoV-2, which has struck mink farms in several other countries. But lab tests soon revealed something scarier: a deadly avian influenza virus named H5N1. Authorities immediately placed workers on the farm under quarantine restrictions. The more than 50,000 mink at the facility were killed and their carcasses destroyed.

None of the farm workers became infected. But the episode, described in a paper in Eurosurveillance last week, has reignited long-smoldering fears that H5N1 could trigger a human pandemic. The virus is not known to spread well between mammals; people almost always catch it from infected birds, not one another. But now, H5N1 appears to have spread through a densely packed mammalian population and gained at least one mutation that favors mammal-to-mammal spread. Virologists warn that H5N1, now rampaging through birds around the world, could invade other mink farms and become still more transmissible.

“This is incredibly concerning,” says Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London. “This is a clear mechanism for an H5 pandemic to start.” Isabella Monne, a veterinary researcher at the European Union’s Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza in Italy, where the samples from Spain were sequenced, calls the finding “a warning bell.”

https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears

It seems inevitable that at this point, this will become a pandemic. It is not a matter of if, but a matter of when, and what our response will be. Given how a good chunk of the population refused to vaccinate themselves with COVID, I am not terribly optimistic.

Odds are we will most likely see another mRNA vaccine. Which while proven to be effective against COVID, sadly had a lot of hysteria and stigma towards it. Which allowed COVID to be one of the most mismanaged pandemics in history. To make the prospects even more worrisome there is an evergrowing distrust of experts, especially those working within medicine. To the point where a good chunk of the population now believes that going outside and exercising will cure any depression. And thus look down on anti-depressants. And with Musk in charge of one of the Social Media platforms. I fear the vector for disinformation will be worse than ever.

I think the best course of action here is for the medical community to rebuild trust with the general populace. While most of the population will get vaccinated, there will always be those contrarians. Second, we need to build up medical infrastructure NOW to support a large capacity. Instead of investing in some car infrastructure project that does nothing but put more cars on the road (induced demand), or some military project that will never see usage. We should focus it on an actual threat like a global pandemic. And lastly, we probably need to stop conditioning people into having a cure for every disease no matter how minor. To condition people to put mroe value into pro-active, rather than reactive medicine.

And while we are at it, can we just ban mink farms already? Cruella De Vil getting her coat is not worth the environmental destruction, disease vectoring and cruelty to animals.

The problem with stupid people is that they're always stupid. Don't expect this to be any better than covid.

What if the Democrats start an anti-vax campaign with a nod and a wink so that we all understand and secretly vax ourselves, but the Republicans feel like they'll be owning us if they get vaccinated?

Asking for (several) friends.

So infection goes from mink to mink, but nothing pointing towards between humans yet?

At times I feel like that would be the best solution.

Currently, we don't see it human to human, yet. And that is a massive relief, as the mortality rate is over 50%.

But that Mammal to Mammal leap is deeply worrying nonetheless. As it was arguably the biggest barrier. What I fear now, is that some wild animal picked up the strand from the minks, and possibly spread it elsewhere.

Largely because educating was never a priority, just compliance.

@sancho_panzer: Once again, I must point out that literally everyone who has gone through grade school has learned about the history and benefits of vaccination. If you have to be retaught this lesson every time a new vaccination is introduced, the failure is not on the teacher. It's on the student.

And don't you find the idea that the Republicans need to be retaught this lesson by the Democrats patronizing?

@mattbbpl: I don't know why you keep doing this... I'm not a republican or a democrat - I'm not even American. How can you not have learnt that by now?

@sancho_panzer: I respond to comments, not people for the most part. I don't know or keep track of your background.

If you say something, I respond on the merits of the statement.

We need more deadly diseases. Killing us off would be good for the planet and everything living on it.

Plus, if only the anti-vaxxers would die off, we'd be left with smarter people. Which would also be good for the planet.

@mattbbpl: It pays not to make assumptions, IMO. It also pays not to make a public healthcare crisis into a superficial and tribal/partisan issue -that is if you're trying to maximise vaccination rates.

Don't be so quick to judge! (and maybe pay more attention to who's posting what in future :P)

My hunch, is that people want to be contrarian as some form of self validation. Going against the mainstream because you are smart, an individual thinker going against the tides perhaps armed with some obscure "knowledge". Just look at the NPC meme, it was all about elevating themselves above everyone else.

In the end, I believe it may in large part be rooted in insecurity. Unfortunately, they do end up getting validation not only from themselves but other similar contrarians around them. And now put this in an age of increased political polarization. And there is a recipe for disaster. Since there are now tribalistic reasons to oppose the vaccines. If the other political tribe supports them.

The best thing countries can do is to train people in media literacy.

@sancho_panzer: What assumption did I make?

Somebody working in a lab somewhere was probably evolving the bird flu virus on purpose so they could work on a vaccine before the virus evolves into a new strain that jumps to humans and ended making the virus stronger to jump from mammal to mammal and it leaked outside the lab before they could finnish.

Im half way taking a piss here.

But for real. After the global organizations botched COVID 19 response and caused more destruction to the world by locking down everything and lying that the way out of the pandemic was through mass vaccination instead of heard immunity. I wouldn't trust them. The CDC or WHO. They lied so much during COVID 19. I'm sure many of the general public would be resistant to anything they push unfortunately. Even if it is a much more deadly virus.

@Maroxad: ∆∆∆ and there you are.

The one you conceded - that I was a democrat or republican voting American.

Because it's about winning Sancho. My side right your side wrong. Pro.choice Vax Vs the Pro forced Vax. Dems vs Repubs. Donkey vs elephant lol.

Scott Adams who makes cartoons for a living. Guy who made Dilbert said Anti Vax people WON lol.... It's funny

I never said such a thing

He didn't do that.

@sargentd: Eh, I've got no comment on that tbh. I'm just glad the vaccine drive along with general restrictions on my life and movement have apparently become unnecessary this year. Zero-covid goals would have been a ****ing nightmare.

1. "And don't you find the idea that the Republicans need to be retaught this lesson by the Democrats patronizing?"

* Baffled as to why this could be patronising in his case, Sancho diplomatically corrects Matt*

*Matt maturely and graciously admits*:

2. "I respond to comments, not people for the most part. I don't know or keep track of your background."

Which is where we should draw the line on this exchange, wisely ignoring any unnecessary 3rd party shit-stirring, in order to avoid straying even further off course.

-------------------------------------

It's called a general statement.

@LJS9502_basic: Ok.

I used one of these.

@mattbbpl: Would have been a sensical response at the time; now, not so much. But as I say, we've drawn a line and I forgive you. I've even drawn a big old L (for Learnding) on my forehead out of poetic justice, if you'd look closely.

Sweden Tried Herd Immunity, it was an absolute disaster.

Source: I lived through it.

Today, we see that boosted people are at a 13 times less lower risk of dying and vaccinated are at a 5 times lower risk of dying.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status

Unless it spreads very easily, or has a long incubation, it won't spread fast with >50% mortality rate.

At least not with a common sense approach to it.

While I doubt it will spread very far with a mortality rate of 50%, something any Plague Inc player can attest to. Even if it were down to 10% that would still be absolutely terrifying. That is what I expect will happen as the diesease continues to evolve.

The biggest barrier has been passed. Making the leap from mammal to mammal is a bigger leap than the human to human leap.

Sometimes I feel like nature is saying "You know what, people? You're getting out of control. This nonsense with politics and social media and fear has got to stop. You want something to worry about? How about I just wipe out, oh idunno....10% of you?"

I know that's not actually happening, it just sort of feels like it sometimes.

It should be noted as well that back in the day, the US also did forced vaccinations. They literally had squads that went from door to door, beat you with a club if you refused, and then cut you and smeared pus in the open wound (this is how they did vaccines back in the day, they'd take the "inert" virus from someone that had it already from an open sore and that's how you got the antibodies).

And it worked. That's something they don't teach you in grade school. Maybe if they did, people would get vaccinated. Get vaccinated or the vaccine squad is gonna cut your cheek and smear cadaver paste in it.

I just don't want to hear any far-right loonies complain about how they didn't have a choice lol. Shit can get worse, and has been worse. But no, every time a vaccinated athlete dies they're like "SEE!? Athletes are dying! ATHLETES!" Like young people have never dropped dead from exercising before lol.

Oh indeed still terrifying, and rather worrisome if indeed it spreads from mammal to mammal. I haven't followed this myself, but any reports if this was the case in only place or several places?

So far it has only been recorded in one mink farm, however, virologists have warned the strand has most likely been picked up and carried off to different places.

That is pretty apt.

Society is more vulnerable to pandemics than ever, which is why scientists warned us about an impending pandemic even before COVID, and even during they warned us about worse pandemics. There are several factors putting us at risk

• Hyperindividualism
• Anti-Empiricism and Anti-Intellectualism
• Human Encroachment on what little remains of natural ecosystems.
• Industrialization of Animal Agriculture
• Complacency
• Ignorance (Shutting down HIV monitoring and hysteria surrounding US supported Biolabs in Ukraine)

And I unironically support mandated vaccinations. With a few medical exceptions of course. Disease doesnt get solved by twiddling our thumbs.

Being anti-Covid vax is not being an anti-vaxer. It's funny that so many people here are ostracizing those who didn't want the Covid vax as the "dumber" ones that nature will eliminate when so many healthy people are dropping dead for literally no reason, the common factor being they had the Covid vax. Nature is weeding out the gullible ones who are giving up their bodies to experimental "medicine," so that big Pharma can keep that cash cow growing. It's sick and disgusting, but the elites in charge know that the sheep will obey.

Reddit is one of the most liberal places on the internet. Yet go check out r/myocarditis or r/vaccinelonghauler on Reddit. Lots of stories from people whose own lives or whose loved ones' lives were ruined from the Covid Vax. These are liberals who trusted Fauci and big Pharma. They have no voice because the establishment says they're liars, and the pharmaceutical companies have immunity against legal action.

But hey, if not taking the Covid vax makes me dumb, I'd rather be dumb than to be dead or to be alive with a heart of an 80 year old in a 30 year old body.

@Maroxad: Yeah I forgot the name for it, I think it's called the Siege Paradox or something like that, but the gist of the idea is that people pay taxes and work to install preventative measures and after a period of time, people start to think the threat is gone and they question the need of these things because they think they're better off alone or it should be voluntary.

So they stop working to keep themselves safe and start thinking the threat is gone. But it was never gone, it's just the things you were doing were necessary and working.

I really hope this doesn't get to the point where vaccinations are required, as after the hell I went through post my C-19 vaccine, I won't get it. Can't get it. It made me so miserable as to bring me to the point of suicide and institutionalized me, so I stay away from mRNA vaccines.

Being against the COVID vax, in spite of all evidence that shows its efficacy is being anti-vax. The risks from taking the vaccine, while they do exist, are significantly smaller than getting the risks of the disease itself, this will be significantly amplified when the mRNA vaccine for this pandemic becomes a thing.

I wouldn't use Reddit to prove my argument if I were you, a few people getting sick to the vaccine, while unfortunate is miniscule to the number of unvaccinated people who get sick and have to deal with long covid or worse. You can point to small reddits, that barely have any users, while I can point at https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/

There are those who have medical reasons to not get vaccinated. But these are the sole exceptions to the vaccine, everyone else, should get vaccinated so we can protect these people with herd immunity gained from the vaccine.

@Maroxad: So your Reddit reference is people posting critiques of those with whom they disagree. Mine are links to personal stories of people who are dying after taking the vaccine.

I understand that you do not care about the people who have died from the vaccine. However, they are still very real. I have had COVID several times. I got natural immunity. The survival rate and complications versus the risks of the vaccine are not worth it. I don’t want to have myocarditis, strokes, or “stuck face” syndrome like Justin Bieber has been having for months now, not to mention the ridiculous amounts of “died suddenly” occurring, even in young, healthy athletes, not fat people. I do not think that the COVID vax will harm everyone. For most people, it probably won’t hurt them. I am not willing to take that risk. I still think that many of you who rolled up your sleeves and exposed your naked arms to get raped by the government with a filthy needle will have major repercussions for your decisions in the future. For your sakes, I hope not. But if you do, stop your propagandizing and save others from your same miserable fate.

And even though I have been vaxed for everything else EXCEPT Covid, I proudly am an anti-vaxer now, according to you. I really don’t care. I’d rather be put in prison than to take it.

@The_Deepblue : Link? Also even if someone had a bad reaction to the vaccine, more people died of the virus. There will always be a SMALL percentage of individuals that have a reaction to vaccines/medicine. That does NOT negate the good they do in keeping people safe.

Both subreddits are a collection of anecdotes, however the collection of anecdotes I link is far bigger than both of yours combined.

I never said I didn't care. What I did say however is that the risks of not getting vaccinated are significantly higher than the risks of getting vaccinated. And Long COVID is a SERIOUS issue affecting affecting 11% of everyone who have "natural immunity" and around 1% (used to be higher) passed away. In comparison, the risks of COVID having this are infinitesimally small.

The COVID vaccine is a vaccine. So yes, fearmongering and spreading disinformation about a vaccine is being an antivaxxer. Just like being anti-GMO, anti-Nuclear, Creationist or denying Climate Change is being anti-science.

You're probably right, but hey there is a chance it was killed off.

We are in some ways better prepared now. Even if it takes another decade before this becomes dangerous for most of us, I don't think we will forget everything we learned, neither will many of us forget how the recent pandemic was and how to minimize risk of exposure.

Do you think Sweden will take the same approach again? I sort of expect Norway to start the same way, but hopefully without unreasonable hate against any country that has a different approach to it.

@LJS9502_basic: Do you want a link because you're too lazy to do some simple searches, or is it because you truly do not know how to find the information? If it's the latter, I will consider helping you with several links. If it's the former, I don't want to enable your laziness. Or maybe you just live under a rock.

@Maroxad Anecdotes are just as historical as biased "research." Climate change is a different subject. You can believe in climate change and be a Creationist, you know. But the climate is changing regardless of what we do. We are just making it worse. I say ban plastics (I'm serious. I hate how much plastic we use. It's grossly negligent, and I actually side with the libs on keeping the earth clean. It's our only home.)

As far as "anti-GMO," goes, it's not that big of a deal. Life is short either way. I don't think GMO products will kill you THAT much faster. Organic is obviously better for you, though. Nuclear energy is cool.

If you and your grandmaw want to get the COVID vax, great. Have at it. But if you are telling me that I have to get the vax in order for your vax to work, then your vax is a bad vax. Go have your vax and boosters, just don't expect me to join the vaxed party. I don't want to go into cardiac arrest while celebrating with you. I'm a proud anti-vaxer now anyways!

Sweden did learn from their mistake. Herd immunity approach was a terrible move. However with a right wing government in charge, and one that is hilariously incompetent (23% approval rating after 3 months, lol), so if the pandemic becomes a thing with them in charge. It really is hard to tell.

Anecdotes have an extremely high risk of bias, due to their singular nature. Research, involves a myriad of anecdotes, while isolating variables, and thus they have a significantly lower risk of bias (but due to mathematics and statistics, they still likely have some). And you putting citation marks infront of the research and at the same level of reddit anecdotal stories, doesnt help your case.

Also I said "or" not "and". If you are a creationist, but accept the theory of climate change, you are antiscience. If you accept the theory of evolution, but deny climate change, you are anti-science. Being skeptical of any single one of those, unless you are backed by mountains of research, makes one anti-science.

I want everyone who can be vaccinated to do so, so we can finally have COVID's R0 Factor reach a level where it can no longer sustain itself. And have this disease over with.

Edit: There is no evidence to suggest GMOs are less healthy. In fact, virtually all our crops are GMOs these days. Unless the bananas you eat look like this

I want a link showing facts and not your opinion. If you make the statement then YOU need to back it up. I'm not doing the work for you, besides you might actually learn something if you find professional sites.

@Maroxad: Sorry, I forgot that scientists have been observing evolution for millions of years in labs. Props to the dude who had the hypothesis millions of years ago to begin the scientific method on evolution. Is there a museum or something where I can view a few of the millions of human specimen in the many transitional stages of evolution? I’d like to see them.

God created the earth in an “aged state,” just as he created Adam and Eve in an aged state (as adults). The Grand Canyon was made basically as we see it today. That does not make me anti science. Science is not a bunch of arrogant elites preaching down at me about theories and beliefs that are in no way scientific but based on presuppositions alone. You’re anti science, though.

I trust Dr. Sten Ekberg (to give a name) for nutrition info, not the government hacks. And he’s Swedish, like you! Although, you’re probably not an Olympian like he. Check out his YouTube and learn something.

You can find truth outside of institutionalism, man. Don’t let your mind and soul be merely a construct of what institutions tell you to believe. We all are shaped by the info we receive, but at some point we need to scrutinize it and posses it as our own, which may include pruning away what is not true. Jesus can help you with that if you humbly come to Him.

Anyways, I’m not interesting in retreading the evolution stuff beyond this post. I’m anti-science and anti-vax, and I accept that. You win the argument. Enjoy your victory.

Why would you listen to a Chiropractor says on YouTube over what actual Nutritionists get published in papers? A chiropractor is a layperson in nutrition, just like a nutritionist is a layperson in virology. I trust the papers written on nutrition. About 7 months ago, due to a life changing incident. I found myself consulting a nutritionist, to ensure I could eat as healthily as possible while adhering to my new set of ethics and lifestyle I had adopted. The results were tremendous to say the least.

Don't worry, I wont push on the Creationism stuff. I just used it as one of the 2 right wing anti-science stances, just like I also used 2 left wing anti science stances. With the point being to demonstrate that anti-science sentiments not only happen anywhere regardless of political spectrum. But also simply having one stance is enough to make one anti-science.

Because of my background in STEM (Engineering) I am also trained to interpret scientific data. As a result, I can read a scientific paper and point out if it is potential nonsense. Which sadly happens quite a bit when you deal with sociological papers.

We gonna die.

If the fringe right wanna cry its a conspiracy by the deep state to vaccinated people and make their kids gay and to flagrantly flaunt health advisories by licking a bird's butthole, they have my blessing.

I believe Jesus created this variation in the virus to test my anti-vax faith.