17 years since Republicans won the national popular vote. What year do you predict that this trend will change?

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Serraph105

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#1  Edited By Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 35458 Posts

So Republicans haven't won the national popular vote since Bush Jr. won his second term, and he didn't even win it for his first term. What year do you predict that this will change?

Funny thought, there will be new Republican voters in the 2024 election who have never been alive to see a republican president win the national popular vote.

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Zaryia

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#2  Edited By Zaryia
Member since 2016 • 17283 Posts

Not any time soon, their policies are less popular and their results (GOP = worse economies, GOP = lower HDI areas) are rubbish

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super600

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#3  Edited By super600  Moderator
Member since 2007 • 32744 Posts

Probably not anytime soon unless a bush type candidate appears in the future. The GOP bleeding votes in suburban areas will make it harder for them to win the PV now. Now that california is very safe for the democrats, georgia is a tossup or lean d, texas is inching closer to tossup status and florida isn't a safe republican state on the pres level it will get harder and harder for the GOP to win the popular vote in a presidential election.

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HoolaHoopMan

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#4  Edited By HoolaHoopMan
Member since 2009 • 13306 Posts

Prob not. But the electoral roadmap certainly favors them so there's no immediate need for them to appeal to more people, only specific demographics and geographical regions.

The GOPs strategy is 100% gerrymander, hinder opposition voting, and installing puppets in the event they feel the urge to overturn election results (successfully next time).

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PurpleMan5000

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#5 PurpleMan5000
Member since 2011 • 10235 Posts

Honestly, if a halfway normal human being would win their primary, they could win the popular vote against Joe Biden in 2024. I'm guessing they never win it again, though.

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LJS9502_basic

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#6 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 174736 Posts

Popular? Don't hold your breath. Gerrymandered? Needs to be changed. Politicians shouldn't set districts.

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judaspete

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#7 judaspete
Member since 2005 • 5283 Posts

@super600: I'd argue Bush only got the popular vote on his second try because he was riding the 9/11 wave. Someone like him now wouldn't do so great. Just ask Jeb.

Honestly though, I could see it happening in 2024. Joe Biden is a weak candidate. He got by because COVID messed up Trump's main selling point, a strong economy. If the GOP could find an Obama-style nominee, someone who can walk the line of exciting the base while still making rational, coherent appeals to independents and moderates, they could pull off an actual democratically elected victory for once.

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Stevo_the_gamer

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#9 Stevo_the_gamer  Moderator
Member since 2004 • 47836 Posts

Kind of a moot question. The election process isn't likely to be altered so the race to 270 is always more important than simply trying to be popular amidst the most populous states.

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Silentchief

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#10  Edited By Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts

If the left keeps up the insanity id say 2024.

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Serraph105

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#11 Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 35458 Posts

@silentchief: insanity? What are you referring to?

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Zaryia

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#12 Zaryia
Member since 2016 • 17283 Posts

@silentchief said:

If the left keeps up the insanity id say 2024.

I disagree. Not that many people care about nothing burger culture wars as you think.

How do I know this? The OP's 17 year factoid.

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SUD123456

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#13 SUD123456
Member since 2007 • 6356 Posts

Possibly never again. I am at the tail end of the baby boomer generation and nearing retirement. Most of my fellow boomers are already retired. This is a large cohort/population bubble that won't be repeated anytime soon and it is much less liberal than the 2 most recent generations. My generation votes and we are going to start dying out enmasse. The younger generations will age and that will naturally increase their voter turnout. The dynamics do not favor the Republicans.

Of course, in the very short term Biden could screw up so bad that it could happen temporarily in the near future. Longer term the math is against the Republicans.

And let's not forget that parties can reinvent themselves, so there is no guarantee that the insanity of the Republican party over the last few decades will continue.

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HoolaHoopMan

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#14 HoolaHoopMan
Member since 2009 • 13306 Posts

@SUD123456 said:

Possibly never again. I am at the tail end of the baby boomer generation and nearing retirement. Most of my fellow boomers are already retired. This is a large cohort/population bubble that won't be repeated anytime soon and it is much less liberal than the 2 most recent generations. My generation votes and we are going to start dying out enmasse. The younger generations will age and that will naturally increase their voter turnout. The dynamics do not favor the Republicans.

Of course, in the very short term Biden could screw up so bad that it could happen temporarily in the near future. Longer term the math is against the Republicans.

And let's not forget that parties can reinvent themselves, so there is no guarantee that the insanity of the Republican party over the last few decades will continue.

There's also the COVID factor which is hurting republican and older voters harder as well. You'd think the prospect of losing a measurable margin of their voter base would encourage them to protect GOP supporters.

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mrbojangles25

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#15  Edited By mrbojangles25
Member since 2005 • 52049 Posts

I don't think they can. Win the popular vote, that is.

  • GOP policies are at an all-time low in terms of popularity.
  • Their last president had terrible approval ratings.
  • And they generally only win through voter suppression, divisiveness, and gerrymandering.
  • Economies do poorly under GOP leadership relative to Democrats.

Republicans win, and America loses. To most this is a pretty clear truth.

@zaryia said:

Not any time soon, their policies are less popular and their results (GOP = worse economies, GOP = lower HDI areas) are rubbish

Yeah, all this.

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mrbojangles25

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#16 mrbojangles25
Member since 2005 • 52049 Posts

@HoolaHoopMan said:
@SUD123456 said:

Possibly never again. I am at the tail end of the baby boomer generation and nearing retirement. Most of my fellow boomers are already retired. This is a large cohort/population bubble that won't be repeated anytime soon and it is much less liberal than the 2 most recent generations. My generation votes and we are going to start dying out enmasse. The younger generations will age and that will naturally increase their voter turnout. The dynamics do not favor the Republicans.

Of course, in the very short term Biden could screw up so bad that it could happen temporarily in the near future. Longer term the math is against the Republicans.

And let's not forget that parties can reinvent themselves, so there is no guarantee that the insanity of the Republican party over the last few decades will continue.

There's also the COVID factor which is hurting republican and older voters harder as well. You'd think the prospect of losing a measurable margin of their voter base would encourage them to protect GOP supporters.

I think the GOP is on its way out, to be blunt.

I see one of two things happening: either the GOP reinvents itself (not likely) entirely, or through osmosis we see more moderate democrats join the GOP and we essentially get a moderate-democrat party (new GOP) and a progressive-democrat party (new Democrat party).

Would prefer to see the latter. Current serving GOP members just seem like a bunch of a pissy little twerps.

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SargentD

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#17  Edited By SargentD
Member since 2020 • 1957 Posts

Possibly 2024. Biden is probably the least popular democrat of my lifetime and Kamala is liked even less than Biden. He is an absolute embarrassment and brain dead. I've said it before but I'll say it again, Biden won't make it to the end of his first term, he's melting faster than that dude in who framed Roger rabbit. Inflation, supply issues, fumbled in Afghanistan, shut down our own pipelines when energy is scarce as is, forcing us to buy outside the country, illegal immigration issues. Basically doing nothing. Biden and his administration... Can't think of 1 single thing I like about it, if you talk to most Democrats they can't think of anything either, they just hated Trump.

Nothing is a good word for Biden Administration. Whole lot of nothing.

(Not that the popular vote matters, if it did the election would be decided by a handful of big cities. Electoral College is all that matters.)

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GirlUSoCrazy

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#18 GirlUSoCrazy
Member since 2015 • 16563 Posts

They don't need to as long as they can keep redistricting and gerrymandering

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Silentchief

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#19  Edited By Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts
@zaryia said:
@silentchief said:

If the left keeps up the insanity id say 2024.

I disagree. Not that many people care about nothing burger culture wars as you think.

How do I know this? The OP's 17 year factoid.

Hmm nothing burger ?

Then why did this Happen? What happened 17 years ago is irrelevant to what's going on now. The Democrats will most likely get destroyed in the midterms and i expect them to lose 2024 as well. Unless they turn course from the awful job they have done so far.

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SUD123456

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#20  Edited By SUD123456
Member since 2007 • 6356 Posts

@sargentd: You don't think investing in infrastructure is good?

You don't think getting the G20 to agree to a minimum 15% tax rate for multinationals is good?

You don't think getting out of Afghanistan is good?

Those are 3 things that should be obviously good to anyone whose judgement isn't clouded by pukey political BS.

Certainly doesn't mean he is doing a rip roaring job overall, but really you can't think of one good thing?

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SargentD

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#21 SargentD
Member since 2020 • 1957 Posts

@SUD123456: that's your top 3 greatest hits of Biden... Pathetic. Also his exit in Afghanistan was a fumble not a win. An absolute embarrassment

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Silentchief

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#22  Edited By Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts

@sargentd: You don't think investing in infrastructure is good?

You don't think getting the G20 to agree to a minimum 15% tax rate for multinationals is good?

You don't think getting out of Afghanistan is good?

Those are 3 things that should be obviously good to anyone whose judgement isn't clouded by pukey political BS.

Certainly doesn't mean he is doing a rip roaring job overall, but really you can't think of one good thing?

Lol his Afghanistan exit was an absolute blunder wtf are you talking about?

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tjandmia

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#23 tjandmia
Member since 2017 • 1426 Posts

@silentchief said:

If the left keeps up the insanity id say 2024.

What insanity, 4.5% GDP growth, 6 million jobs, rising incomes, and the stock market at all time highs?

Or are you referring to the 2020 supply chain issues?

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Silentchief

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#24  Edited By Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts

@tjandmia: are you in an alternate reality?

The supply chain issue is worse now then it ever has been. We now have the worst inflation in over 30 years and the stock market the past couple weeks has been tanking. The job growth is actually far slower then expected .

This recovery has been far slower then expected and now new variants are on the way.

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#25  Edited By Maroxad
Member since 2007 • 18378 Posts

Never say never.

Democrats could go off the deep end. The US electorate could go off the deep end. The republicans could be good enough to suppress the vote, that they also end up winning the popular vote. A sane Republican could run.

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comp_atkins

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#26 comp_atkins
Member since 2005 • 37539 Posts

and yet they like to think of themselves as the "silent majority"

weird.

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Serraph105

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#27  Edited By Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 35458 Posts

@girlusocrazy: yes, this is possibly true. It does seem to be a problem for long term democracy though when the scenario becomes the majority continually losing to the minoe.

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#28 dabear
Member since 2002 • 4941 Posts

@Serraph105: We are a federal republic. The "national vote" doesn't mean much. If we did do a "national vote", then the coasts would decide the White House.

Maybe you need a history lesson. But, to be real quick, a few states picking the POTUS is exactly why there is not a national vote for POTUS.

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dabear

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#29 dabear
Member since 2002 • 4941 Posts

@HoolaHoopMan: How can you gerrymander a state wide election?

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#30 dabear
Member since 2002 • 4941 Posts
@girlusocrazy said:

They don't need to as long as they can keep redistricting and gerrymandering

Umm... how can you gerrymander a state wide election?

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LJS9502_basic

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#31 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 174736 Posts

@dabear said:

@Serraph105: We are a federal republic. The "national vote" doesn't mean much. If we did do a "national vote", then the coasts would decide the White House.

Maybe you need a history lesson. But, to be real quick, a few states picking the POTUS is exactly why there is not a national vote for POTUS.

FYI the US is a federal republic and a representative democracy. Don't try to play semantics and not do it correctly.

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Zaryia

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#32 Zaryia
Member since 2016 • 17283 Posts

@tjandmia said:
@silentchief said:

If the left keeps up the insanity id say 2024.

What insanity, 4.5% GDP growth, 6 million jobs, rising incomes, and the stock market at all time highs?

Yeah the economy under Biden is significantly better than Trump.

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#33 dabear
Member since 2002 • 4941 Posts

@LJS9502_basic said:
@dabear said:

@Serraph105: We are a federal republic. The "national vote" doesn't mean much. If we did do a "national vote", then the coasts would decide the White House.

Maybe you need a history lesson. But, to be real quick, a few states picking the POTUS is exactly why there is not a national vote for POTUS.

FYI the US is a federal republic and a representative democracy. Don't try to play semantics and not do it correctly.

It's a representative democracy at the state level. If you are going to fence with me, please keep up.

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tjandmia

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#34 tjandmia
Member since 2017 • 1426 Posts

@silentchief said:

@tjandmia: are you in an alternate reality?

The supply chain issue is worse now then it ever has been. We now have the worst inflation in over 30 years and the stock market the past couple weeks has been tanking. The job growth is actually far slower then expected .

This recovery has been far slower then expected and now new variants are on the way.

4.5% GDP growth is double the average over the past 25 years. Job growth is averaging 500k per month, far higher than expected. Inflation is up, but that's what happens when you have a recession the previous year and you move into a good economy. You raise prices to recoup the losses you had the year before. We're seeing this in the oil industry and many others right now. Never mind the fact that the tariffs added $51 billion to the cost of nearly everything imported into this country.

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LJS9502_basic

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#35  Edited By LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 174736 Posts

@dabear said:
@LJS9502_basic said:

FYI the US is a federal republic and a representative democracy. Don't try to play semantics and not do it correctly.

It's a representative democracy at the state level. If you are going to fence with me, please keep up.

No that's the definition of the United States. Not a state.

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Silentchief

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#36  Edited By Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts
@tjandmia said:
@silentchief said:

@tjandmia: are you in an alternate reality?

The supply chain issue is worse now then it ever has been. We now have the worst inflation in over 30 years and the stock market the past couple weeks has been tanking. The job growth is actually far slower then expected .

This recovery has been far slower then expected and now new variants are on the way.

4.5% GDP growth is double the average over the past 25 years. Job growth is averaging 500k per month, far higher than expected. Inflation is up, but that's what happens when you have a recession the previous year and you move into a good economy. You raise prices to recoup the losses you had the year before. We're seeing this in the oil industry and many others right now. Never mind the fact that the tariffs added $51 billion to the cost of nearly everything imported into this country.

4.5% GDP growth after a massive recession is garbage. Your talking about job growth? We still have a massive shortage. Wages are not keeping up with inflation even in high paying jobs. There is a reason why a record number of CEO's just sold their stocks. They are expecting a massive crash.

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Silentchief

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#37 Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts
@zaryia said:
@tjandmia said:
@silentchief said:

If the left keeps up the insanity id say 2024.

What insanity, 4.5% GDP growth, 6 million jobs, rising incomes, and the stock market at all time highs?

Yeah the economy under Biden is significantly better than Trump.

No its not. Trump had 33 % gdp growth in Q3 of 2020. He did a better job of recovering during a recession.

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appariti0n

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#38  Edited By appariti0n
Member since 2009 • 4384 Posts

If the Democrats don't reign in and denounce the more extremist views within their party, it will happen in 2024 imo.

Edit: But only if Trump is NOT the candidate. I think he would alienate way too many swing/centrist voters.

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LJS9502_basic

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#39 LJS9502_basic
Member since 2003 • 174736 Posts

@silentchief said:

No its not. Trump had 33 % gdp growth in Q3 of 2020. He did a better job of recovering during a recession.

Uh that's a bit disingenuous a statement to make. trump caused the recession. People were not working because of that.

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#40  Edited By comp_atkins
Member since 2005 • 37539 Posts
@dabear said:

@Serraph105: We are a federal republic. The "national vote" doesn't mean much. If we did do a "national vote", then the coasts would decide the White House.

Maybe you need a history lesson. But, to be real quick, a few states picking the POTUS is exactly why there is not a national vote for POTUS.

a few states picking the POTUS is exactly what we have now. it's just not the states on the coasts ( floriduh excluded )

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#41 Ghost_of_Phobos
Member since 2020 • 3179 Posts

States are people too!

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Serraph105

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#42 Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 35458 Posts

@LJS9502_basic: no no LJ, it's totally cool to say that the economy grew 33%, giving Trump credit for it, without acknowledging that unemployment fell to 20% in that same year. It's not disingenuous at all! It straight up genous.

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Serraph105

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#43  Edited By Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 35458 Posts

@comp_atkins: "a few states picking the POTUS is exactly what we have now. it's just not the states on the coasts ( floriduh excluded )"

But it's the right states, and the right coasts. It's not the dirty liberal states on the coasts.

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WitIsWisdom

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#44 WitIsWisdom
Member since 2007 • 7939 Posts

@SUD123456 said:

@sargentd: You don't think investing in infrastructure is good?

You don't think getting the G20 to agree to a minimum 15% tax rate for multinationals is good?

You don't think getting out of Afghanistan is good?

Those are 3 things that should be obviously good to anyone whose judgement isn't clouded by pukey political BS.

Certainly doesn't mean he is doing a rip roaring job overall, but really you can't think of one good thing?

LMFAO.... You have to be kidding. Like seriously.

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Silentchief

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#45 Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts

@LJS9502_basic said:
@silentchief said:

No its not. Trump had 33 % gdp growth in Q3 of 2020. He did a better job of recovering during a recession.

Uh that's a bit disingenuous a statement to make. trump caused the recession. People were not working because of that.

I would say the pandemic caused the recession.

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Silentchief

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#46 Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts
@Serraph105 said:

@LJS9502_basic: no no LJ, it's totally cool to say that the economy grew 33%, giving Trump credit for it, without acknowledging that unemployment fell to 20% in that same year. It's not disingenuous at all! It straight up genous.

Kinda like when Obama talked about decreasing the deficit eventhough it was his deficit in the first place?

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#47 vl4d_l3nin
Member since 2013 • 3508 Posts
@LJS9502_basic said:
@silentchief said:

No its not. Trump had 33 % gdp growth in Q3 of 2020. He did a better job of recovering during a recession.

Uh that's a bit disingenuous a statement to make. trump caused the recession. People were not working because of that.

And you call his statement disingenuous

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Silentchief

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#48  Edited By Silentchief
Member since 2021 • 2346 Posts
@appariti0n said:

If the Democrats don't reign in and denounce the more extremist views within their party, it will happen in 2024 imo.

Edit: But only if Trump is NOT the candidate. I think he would alienate way too many swing/centrist voters.

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That's culture war nonsense to them the lefties on this board do not even see it as an issue. Because most of them agree with it.

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#49 HoolaHoopMan
Member since 2009 • 13306 Posts

@dabear said:

@HoolaHoopMan: How can you gerrymander a state wide election?

Republicans are gerrymandering Congressional districts and at state levels. Try to keep up.

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#50  Edited By blaznwiipspman1
Member since 2007 • 9742 Posts

so the dems win like 53% of popular vote vs 47% for the republicans? Its not really surprising, when the woke left says yes to everyone, illegal immigrants, giving $1 million to illegal immigrants, no consequences for rioting with blm, but consequences for the right having a riot on capital hill, the pro choice stuff, and whatever else, oh yeah $4 trillion free spending bills. Is it even surprising? Even if majority of population think something is good, doesn't make it right, and law makers sure as hell shouldn't follow the majority when making the laws either. They just need to follow the logic, thats it. I'm not saying what the right stands for is good either, mainly their nonsense stance on global warming, and being against something small like the mask mandates and being anti vaxx just makes everyone in the right look like some hilbilly clown show. Also constantly talking about CNN fake news is another hilarious joke, when their trash fox news shouldn't even pass for a tabloid.

Bottom line, popular vote is meaningless. They do have that saying, tyranny of the masses for a reason.