Oblivion sold 1.5m units in the USA alone, just on the 360. I have no idea what worldwide sales over all three platforms are like, but I can imagine it being over three million.
Games that sell that well get sequels. It's probably already in development - and probably has been for some time. But Fallout 3 is their next game, and you can expect that on shelves before we hear much about the next Elder Scrolls game.
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