W.H.O: Coronavirus death rate higher than originally thought.

They now estimate a 3.4 percent death rate. Kinda worrying. Deadlier than FLU.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/world/coronavirus-news.html

Are you cleaning your hands and not touching stuff?

Well, yeah. From early on in this outbreak, we already knew the mortality rate would be about 5% - low, but not statistically insignificantly so.

Also, plenty of diseases have higher mortality rate than seasonal Influenza, which has a mortality rate of less than 0.1%. The sole reason seasonal Influenza kills more people in absolute terms is because of its vastly higher infection rate; up to a billion people could get infected per year.

This COVID-19 outbreak is a serious situation, no doubt, and the only reason it isn't much worse and more people aren't dying is because of governments and organizations are taking it seriously and making efforts to contain it. The key question is the proportionality of this response; too heavy-handed, and the response could inflict more harm than the virus itself. I'd say they have the balance about right so far.

So in other words: don't panic, but don't downplay the risk either. Calmly take precautions, and go about your daily life.

Also from the article

"But the figure came loaded with caveats. Experts, including those at the W.H.O., say that when more is known about the epidemic, the death rate will be considerably lower."

and

"Dr. Bruce Aylward, who is leading the W.H.O.’s coronavirus efforts, said he expects that ultimately, it will turn out to be between 1 and 2 percent. And it could be below 1 percent, according Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."

Wrong forum.

But i do get why you would hide his panic attack over here.

Don't touch stuff? Hahaha, good joke.

I would find it odd to put a completely apolitical thread in PG, so I decided not to. You're looking too deep into this.

Panic? Hiding? What!? I'm just citing WHO and also telling people to wash their hands (as they should). Relax with the wacky conspiracy theories against me.

Like your eyes, mouth, and be weary of door knobs or other items that a lot of other people touch. Wash hands and use sanitizer.

Read that part and I certainly hope that's the case. But one should still be cautious.

@zaryia: worth noting that amount of untested cases out there, China ran out if testing kits and there people in other countries who may just think they are ill with something else.

This makes the mortality rate likely to be lower.

A fatality rate between 1 and 2 % is still 10 times minimum higher than your regular flu.

Probably. But it's problematic enough to cancel tons of the biggest public events and even make my works (and several other peoples) company policy considerably change our behavior and issue warnings. As well as several states of emergencies. As well as decimate the markets.

Still have to be very cautious.

Of course. But the media is making things worse though sensationalization. People are going out in droves stocking up on masks (which are useless) and hand sanitizer (which is good to have a few at home) and freaking out. Most of the deaths are seniors and immunocompromised.

@zaryia: to be honest Id just want to catch it now and isolate my self while I have.

While Im currently in good enough health to deal with it.

@SOedipus: for the most part, "But the media is making things worse though sensationalization," this is all the media does.

@thehig1: Catching this virus doesn't make you immune to catching it again. You can become cured, and then infected again the next day.

That's the US media for you.

@horgen: @Chutebox: which is my point, lol.

@sealionact: that's currently unknown, those cases could well be people who weren't tested for it, or were never actaully clear of it when they thought they were.

It's frightening if that's true, because it means producing vaccines would be a waste of time.

However the consensus is your likely immune if you have caught it and recovered.

@horgen: Oh trust me. It's not just the us media.. although I feel it's worth pointing out that scientists have stated that a surgical mask will provide "moderate" protection.

More worrying to me is the doubling time. The doubling time varies of course just like the R0. Because of the setting, because of our actions, because of the weather and culture and accessibility and quality of healthcare, the food and the accuracy of numbers.

I am not a virologist/epidemiologist and maybe we have one here? I want to know whether we can expect this virus to get a significantly longer Td as more of the world's population gets infected/immunity?

Because what I'm looking at, with very conservative (no not that kind of conservative) calculation BUT taking a constant (average) Td of 6 to 10 days (which I hope is a terrible mistake on my end), is the beginning of June to the beginning of August for half the world to have been infected.

Now I aware the Td matters way more than the number of infected here, so I could be off by a lot. (China has stretched the Td to well above 21 days apparently? Is there any hope that we can at least stretch it to over 25 as a global average to buy time?) With a vaccine likely taking 12+ months from now, I don't see how we can cope with that high an amount of cases. Even at a low percentage CFR (I'm thinking about the accessibility of healthcare as well) that sounds like a tragedy.

Which BTW is just a concern of mine based on limited understanding and not a reason to panic or to get tons of groceries or masks. (Although I would advise storing just a little bit extra before panic shopping sets in, to smooth over supply chain issues later on.) This virus is unlikely to kill an individual.

Don't buy masks. Medical personnel will need the masks more than you do, and they will run out of all the masks in the world very quickly. Masks tend to be a little counterproductive for healthy people who aren't working with the sick (and extremely uncomfortable and expensive when used properly). If you already bought masks, then you may as well start training yourself how to use one properly. I would save them for those who start coughing.

@SOedipus: Masks are useful, it reduces the chances of someone infected transmitting it to others and it also reduces the chance of catching the disease.

Just imagine if someone who is infected who coughed and sneezed in close proximity to you. If he or she wore a mask, then more of the virus will be caught inside the mask. You will also be more protected compared to someone not wearing a mask in such a situation.

Your point regarding washing hands is correct, soap and warm water is the most effective, better than the 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizers. But why do surfaces have the virus in the first place? Because of people coughing and sneezing without a mask!

None of the masks, (there are different types) are 100% effective. The N95 masks are probably the best, they're very tight with many (thick) layers are far better than the regular surgical masks. But they're also very uncomfortable to wear.

But if you still think wearing a mask is, "useless", then don't wear one!

Eh soap is still better than hand sanitizer.

Against viruses soap is usually far better.

Absolutely. The masses don't get that though.

I don't wear one, because they are pretty useless. They offer some protection but you need to use them appropriately and most people don't. The virus is airborne and can live on surfaces. You'll have better protection by simply practicing proper hygiene. Wash your hands with soap, especially before you touch your face. You can get the virus by shaking someone's hand, rubbing your eyes or simply breathing the air near someone who has the virus. A mask won't stop you from getting it. Also, if you are sick then just stay home. Don't go out and infect other people. If someone coughs or sneezes, while wearing a mask, there are still particles escaping.

You make the assumption that people who wear masks do not wash their hands? You seem to think its either one or the other?

But good for you, I am very glad you won't be wearing a mask! Bravo!

Where did I make that assumption? I wrote that you're better protected by practicing proper hygiene. I claimed that most people don't use masks appropriately because I see people wearing them all the time. They're fidgety with them and playing with them. It defeats the whole purpose because they're touching the part of the mask that they're not supposed to. There are examples when they're appropriate to wear like if you're ill and you're looking after someone who is at higher risk of death, like a senior. But they're absolutely useless for everyday use, like going to work and taking the bus. I'm glad that you're glad, I live to please.

@SOedipus:

Wow and now you know, 'most people?' Are yes, you must be the guy I saw on the street the other day. Hello we meet again.

In one moment you claim, the masks are 'useless,' the next moment, they're appropriate to wear? What is it then? Will it be an essential in your next comment?

Selective reading much? Sure, in my initial statement way back I wrote that they're just useless which got you up in arms. In the end that means you have to worry about one less person buying out an entire pack of masks at a grocery store. More for you. We should add facemasks to system wars fanboy club. You're an adult (I'm assuming) so do what you want, it's your health and your money.

@SOedipus: Aren't those face masks mostly to protect everyone else from you?

I ahve to wear them at work, and it is to protect what I work with, not to protect me.

Yes. We use them to prepare IV drugs. But, we're also in gowns, hair caps, and gloves. If we have to sneeze or cough, we have to turn away from the fume hood, even though we have a mask because they're not 100% effective of preventing particles from escaping. Then we have to leave and scrub in and re-gown again.

As far as protecting everyone else that depends on the person wearing the mask and the environment that they're in. Do they have gloves on, are they touching things like hand-rails, the front of their mask, their hair? If they're outside and doing everyday things they're not that effective because there are too many variables.

Fun job, isn't it? I work in LAF tents and benches all day. Considering I have allergy season coming up, it's one of the better jobs to have.

A lot is done by preventing 90-95% of the particles escaping. However for them to be effective outside, you might have switch every 30 minutes or more often.

@SOedipus: How is it selective reading when we are discussing facemasks. It is a fact one moment you claim their useless, the next they're appropriate. Then you claim, 'most people,' do not use them properly?

Reading skills much?

Look up at post #27, it's even underlined and bolded for you. Hell, you even responded to it. lol

Meh reading skills.

Wow you're such a smart guy, perhaps another stable genius. Keep repeating it and it might become true!

I live in rural Aus, it's hit the town over, which everyone in my town does their shopping at. I'm a barkeep. Yeah I'm getting a little worried.

It's semantics whether its "deadlier" than flu. Both ebola and hauntavirus are much more deadlier than either cornonavirus or influenza, but that's per case and not overall. Flu kills far more people each year because it affects far more people. Influenza A and B kill between 15,000 to 30,000 americans each year EVERY YEAR. Pneumonia kills 60,000 americans each year EVERY YEAR. The worst flu season recently was 2017 to 2018 where over 60,000 americans died that season. Yet, we don't seem to worry or panic about those deaths/numbers because it's simply accepted. CNN doesn't regularly update people every 15 minutes about how many people just contracted influenza or died from it.

I'm not concerned about this new cornonavirus anymore than I am about other infectious diseases in my country. I'm in good healthy. I'm not eldery, I dont have advanced liver/kidney disease, poor pulmonary function or congestive heart failure. I'm also not less than 6 months old. If I got it, I'd likely get sick like the flu and get better. I'd rather not get it, but I'd rather not get most of these infections.

As for what people should be doing, I'd suggest the following. Turn off the news channels. They've been incredibly irresponsible in their coverage of this outbreak. Go to CDC.gov and read their section on the coronavirus. It has a wonderful section on how the virus spreads and what you can do to limit your chances of acquiring it. Or, check your local health departments websites - many of them have useful and accurate information.

Face masks have been advised for people with active infection in order to limit the spread. The CDC does not recommend that other people wear them unless you are actively caring for someone with a known infection. The virus spreads just like the flu does. So wash your hands if you are worried about getting it - and proper handwashing - 30 seconds of hot water with soap. A quick rinse and soap doesnt cut it. Good luck!

my guess ( not knowing anything ) is the fatality rate is lower than we've seen so far because we don't really know the denominator in the equation. there are likely thousands of people who are infected but not confirmed by any testing who recover just fine and are not contributing the lower the rate.

I would assume that far more people actually have it or had it. Guaranteed.

@HoolaHoopMan: Although you probably won't know the death rate of those unknown infected either.

You are correct. Many people can actually be asymptomatic carriers. Which is both good and very bad. It's good in that they have the virus and never really get sick. But it's very bad that they can still spread the virus to many people without being aware they are doing that.

Damn, Europe travel ban for 30 days

Perhaps, however a death would require a cause to be associated with it. A recovered person is far more likely to be uncounted in corona virus statistics than dead people would be.

@HoolaHoopMan: I think we'd have look to deaths attributed to seasonal flu, pneumonia, etc and see if there's an unexpected change upwards.

But whatever really. It's important to contain it and that's that.

This shit is so depressing I hate it what a way to start off a new decade.