When a working Covid 19 vaccine be ready globally?

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Magnum3000

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#1 Magnum3000
Member since 2020 • 499 Posts

Seems we all've to live, study and work with Covid 19 as slowly places are opening up. If anyone gets infected inspite precautions, it will be very bad luck.

When a working Covid 19 vaccine be ready globally?

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horgen

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#2 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 123276 Posts

Could be 12 months away, it could be here in time for Christmas.

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claymoreman23

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#3 claymoreman23
Member since 2019 • 157 Posts

don't open things up, don't fall for the real propaganda.

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warmblur

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#4 warmblur
Member since 2017 • 5250 Posts

@horgen said:

Could be 12 months away, it could be here in time for Christmas.

Yeah, here's hoping that would be the best case scenario right now.

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madrocketeer

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#5 madrocketeer
Member since 2005 • 7367 Posts

About a year, minimum. Lots of testing to see if it works, and if it's safe. Then there's the issue of how to mass produce it.

We might not even get one. RNA viruses mutate quickly, though SARS-CoV-2's genome is unusually large for an RNA virus, and is therefore quite stable. Still, I wouldn't pin all my hopes on it as a way back to old normality. We're going to be living with this thing for a while yet.

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horgen

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#6 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 123276 Posts

@madrocketeer said:

About a year, minimum. Lots of testing to see if it works, and if it's safe. Then there's the issue of how to mass produce it.

We might not even get one. RNA viruses mutate quickly, though SARS-CoV-2's genome is unusually large for an RNA virus, and is therefore quite stable. Still, I wouldn't pin all my hopes on it as a way back to old normality. We're going to be living with this thing for a while yet.

Either it remains stable enough for a vaccine to work, or it mutates to something that can hardly be classified as SARS-CoV-2.

What I mean is that it doesn't appear to be using the same "hiding" mechanics that HIV uses, meaning it should be possible to isolate one or more proteins in its shell that separates it from us (how our body see it biologically). Vaccine to help our body recognise those markers.

Of course easier said than done.

However if it does mutate enough to avoid a vaccine(give it enough time and it will), that is most likely to happen within anti-vaxx communities. A new vaccine will help the rest of us, but not eliminate the problem.

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madrocketeer

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#7 madrocketeer
Member since 2005 • 7367 Posts
@horgen said:

Either it remains stable enough for a vaccine to work, or it mutates to something that can hardly be classified as SARS-CoV-2.

What I mean is that it doesn't appear to be using the same "hiding" mechanics that HIV uses, meaning it should be possible to isolate one or more proteins in its shell that separates it from us (how our body see it biologically). Vaccine to help our body recognise those markers.

Of course easier said than done.

However if it does mutate enough to avoid a vaccine(give it enough time and it will), that is most likely to happen within anti-vaxx communities. A new vaccine will help the rest of us, but not eliminate the problem.

True, this isn't like HIV, which is good news. I didn't say we won't get a vaccine, I said we may not get one. I just thought it was important to set expectations. My hunch? Knowing what I understand about this virus, we probably will get a vaccine, but it will not be permanently effective, and we'll probably have to update the vaccine about once every two years.

But again, it's just a hunch, based on my knowledge of biology and biochemistry, which is decent but not expert-level. There is still a lot we don't know about this virus, specifically what these mutations are turning it into. Are they making it more deadly, or less? Is the virus becoming more contagious, or less? Is it turning into something completely different, that will require a whole new set of research dedicated to it? We just don't know yet.

Which is why I thought it was important to set expectations, and not put too many hopes into one basket, or expect everything to suddenly snap back into old normal. This fight is a marathon, not a sprint.

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GalvatronType_R

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#8 GalvatronType_R
Member since 2003 • 2312 Posts

Measles, smallpox and polio are all dead diseases. It took years to find vaccines for all of them.

Anyone who thinks a COVID-19 vaccine is only months away is delusional.

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pyro1245

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#9 pyro1245
Member since 2003 • 6317 Posts

Even if there is one that works today, it will still take a long time to do testing and validation. Probably looking at 9-18 months.

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Planeforger

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#10 Planeforger
Member since 2004 • 18334 Posts

I'd say 12 months away at a minimum, probably a fait bit longer.

Even if someone finds a miracle cure tomorrow (which they won't - these things take a very long time), they'd want to run trials for 6-12 months before considering releasing it to the public. Then it would take ages to mass produce, distribute, etc.

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claymoreman23

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#11 claymoreman23
Member since 2019 • 157 Posts

when Trump gets a facial

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omegaMaster

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#12 omegaMaster
Member since 2017 • 1421 Posts

I am hearing the news in the UK that a vaccine will be ready in September, which sounds madness to me.

Realistically I reckon at least 12 months... or there might never be a vaccine and we'll have to live with it for the rest of our lives, like HIV for instance. :'(

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horgen

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#13 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 123276 Posts

@omegamaster said:

I am hearing the news in the UK that a vaccine will be ready in September, which sounds madness to me.

Realistically I reckon at least 12 months... or there might never be a vaccine and we'll have to live with it for the rest of our lives, like HIV for instance. :'(

September earliest. I do think some steps in making it is dropped to get it ready that soon.

If you got any idea which companies are trying to make one, buying some stock in those could yield a nice profit.

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brimmul777

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#14 brimmul777
Member since 2011 • 4429 Posts

I wasn't aware that we were close to a vaccine so soon?

To be honest,I stopped watching the news or internet stories because I was so sick'n'tired of hearing about Covid-19.

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Willy105

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#16  Edited By Willy105
Member since 2005 • 25338 Posts

Probably next summer at the earliest, certainly by two or three summers after that.

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#18 aruna001
Member since 2020 • 1 Posts

If you have medium there are some interesting solutions on here - https://medium.com/@Jerry_McCann/top-10-covid-tracking-apps-to-flatten-the-curve-fe3778ec1382

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npiet1

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#19 npiet1
Member since 2018 • 3329 Posts

@GalvatronType_R said:

Measles, smallpox and polio are all dead diseases. It took years to find vaccines for all of them.

Anyone who thinks a COVID-19 vaccine is only months away is delusional.

They didn't have technically the worlds largest super computer helping.

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horgen

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#20 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 123276 Posts

@npiet1 said:
@GalvatronType_R said:

Measles, smallpox and polio are all dead diseases. It took years to find vaccines for all of them.

Anyone who thinks a COVID-19 vaccine is only months away is delusional.

They didn't have technically the worlds largest super computer helping.

Thinking specifically build or programs like folding at home by stanford?

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npiet1

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#21 npiet1
Member since 2018 • 3329 Posts

@horgen said:
@npiet1 said:
@GalvatronType_R said:

Measles, smallpox and polio are all dead diseases. It took years to find vaccines for all of them.

Anyone who thinks a COVID-19 vaccine is only months away is delusional.

They didn't have technically the worlds largest super computer helping.

Thinking specifically build or programs like folding at home by stanford?

Folding at home.

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horgen

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#22 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 123276 Posts

@npiet1 said:

Folding at home.

Representing.

I got roughly 2.97 billion points there now.