[QUOTE="theone86"][QUOTE="mattbbpl"]If we beat the record and go longer than 21 days, it's likely that we will also default due to the debt ceiling.
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I'd like to think that we can stop acting like children long enough to prevent default. Although I'm becoming less confident in that by the day, I still think the risk of reaching that point is relatively unlikely - Surely even the nuts know that defaulting would be a bad decision - right?mattbbpl
The last time there was a prolonged argument about the debt ceiling our credit rating was downgraded, Republicans proceeded to blame it on Obama. Â I think at this point they really could care less about the negative effects. Â If a deal gets done they criticize President Obama for giving them a bad deal, if no deal gets done and we default they criticize President Obama for defaulting. Â I think in their minds they'll just ride that to electoral victory and then attempt to undo the damage once they're in office.
That may be the case for them on an individual congressional district level (where the official can basically live in a political/social bubble of Republican yes-men), but the belief that it would be positive for them on a national level would require ignoring both history and recent polling.Â
Perhaps they really don't care about the real impact, but wouldn't they at least care about the political impact by virtue of self-preservation instinct?
There are a few things to consider:
1) Harping on Obamacare is still a successful rhetorical technique that generates negative attitudes towards Democrats among plenty of moderate and moderate-liberal voters.
2) Republicans are basically winning their electoral battles right now based on the Tea Party line. Â TPers may be a minority, but they're a vocal and active minority that is basically saving the party from some pretty large defeats.
3) Tea Party-aligned congressmen are pushing moderate Republicans do do some of these things, such as include the provision for defunding ACA in the spending bill. Â People like Boehner may be content to coddle the Tea Party and collect their votes, but people like Cantor and a lot of the newer Tea Party congressmen are forcing them to be more extreme. Â For them it's go along with the [Tea] Party or get railroaded in a primary.
4) Plenty of these Tea Party congressmen don't care if they lose in elections. Â If they do then they go to Fox News or write a book and make a shitton of money selling their ideology to conservative voters. Â Beter yet, someone else just picks up the baton since most of their funding isn't based on personal recognition and fundraising but rather large contributions from wealthy donors, which brings me to
5) Plenty of these Republican congressmen are doing exactly what I said before, working to strip funding away from programs like the national parks program, national museums, the EPA, and other programs they see as part of the "big government culture." Â Not only does a government shutdown align with them ideologically, but it aligns with the interests of their main backers. Â Better yet, instead of going directly to the voters and saying "we want to defund the national parks," they can just make this entire debacle over Obamacare, even though the funding bill barely effects it.
6) There's no incumbent running in 2016, which means it will be easier to win a presidential election than the last couple of times out. Â Sure, the opponent might still be tough, but I think they're betting on the Democratic candidate not having as unifying a presence as President Obama did in his first election.
7) They haven't lost control of the House and there have been some pretty tight Senate races. Â They may believe (perhaps rightly) that if they just stick to their current strategy of making moderate and liberal swing voters sick of the Democrats and conservatives absolutely incensed at them that they can have some degree of success in the next elections. Â Maybe that just means keeping the status quo, maybe that means keeping control of the House and picking up a small majoity in the Senate, but either way nothing gets done if they don't want it to. Â If that has adverse effects on the country then so be it, it's just one more talking point they can use against Democrats in 2016.
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