If Mario 3D U and Mario Kart U came out this holiday, would that be enough?

We all know Pikmin 3 will never come out.... or it'll come out on August 4th. Whatever. I'm really looking forward to it, still my most anticipated game of this year. My question is, let's say a 3D Mario for Wii U and Mario Kart U come out this holiday for Wii U. I think the Wii U Direct from January tipped Nintendo's hand a little in that they're going to attempt to release these two games this holiday season and replicate the same lift-off that the 3DS felt when 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 arrived (could be wrong, but this is a suppositional question). My question is, not for you, but for the average consumer, the guy who bought and made Mario Kart Wii the third best selling game of all time across all platforms ever with over 34 million units sold (partially due to the bundle), will this be enough? I'm sure we could go chicken-and-egg and someone could argue that Mario Kart Wii only did well because the Wii was doing well, but let's not deny that Mario Kart U will move units.

So if they do release these two games this fall, will it be enough to take the wind out of the sails of PS4 and 720? This is, of course, dependent on the hype surrounding these two consoles when they launch, as well as the launch library for these two consoles, but regardless, I'd say no. I don't think Mario 3D and Mario Kart U will be enough, and I'm not sure what would be enough. Yeah, they'll release Pikmin 3 as the holiday season starts, but that won't move many units at all. What else does Nintendo need to release software-wise, or just do generally for the system, to make a splash this holiday season? I'm not saying Mario 3D and Mario Kart U won't help and won't move many units, but I don't think they'll cause enough penetration. The only other piece of software I could see them releasing (alongside Mario 3D and Kart U) that would cause that deep penetration would be Smash 4, but that certainly won't happen until 2014. So what do you think they should do, outside of a price cut?

Scrap Wii U and move onto handhelds only, and fire the marketing team are not the answers I'm talking about. This is a software question, principally.

mario kart U will sell to eveyone..with the motion control driving..it appeals to people who are horrible at video games and at the same time hardcore veterans. and mario 3d U will sell systems to gamers...coupled with a 50$ price drop could be enough to gimp the ps4/720 launch...

but if they really want to compete longterm or beat sony and MS they need to bring in the non gamer.

they need to roll out wii fit U and wii party U this holiday and advertise it big. show non gamers that they can relive the wii craze all over again.

dont forget the biggest selling game of all time...wii sports. this is nintendos ace in the hole...in case wiifitU and wiiU party do not motivate the masses to buy a wiiU.

mario kart U will sell to eveyone..with the motion control driving..it appeals to people who are horrible at video games and at the same time hardcore veterans. and mario 3d U will sell systems to gamers...coupled with a 50$ price drop could be enough to gimp the ps4/720 launch...

but if they really want to compete longterm or beat sony and MS they need to bring in the non gamer.

they need to roll out wii fit U and wii party U this holiday and advertise it big. show non gamers that they can relive the wii craze all over again.

dont forget the biggest selling game of all time...wii sports. this is nintendos ace in the hole...in case wiifitU and wiiU party do not motivate the masses to buy a wiiU.

KBFloYd

I just have serious doubts they can capture lightning in a bottle twice. I mean look at Nintendogs vs. Nintendogs + cats. 24 million vs. 3 million. The landscape is much more different now than it was for Wii back in '06. Don't get me wrong, I'm curious to see how Wii Fit U and Wii Party U and Wii Sports U will all do, and I imagine they'll at least be somewhat popular and not totally flop, but I just don't see them recapturing that same success from before though. I'd love to be proven wrong though.homegirl2180

yea they are going to need some good marketing.

no won't be enough, hoping they may release 1 of them by the end of the yr...doubt they will release both this yr. Since they come out & say 2013 the yr for 3DS, so 2014 the yr for Wii U? :p

Hell yes, for the average consumer. Mostly Mario Kart U, people will eat that up, including me.

It is a tough call.  Mario Bros Wii sold has sold somewhere in the 30 millions.  When that game came out, even non-gamers new about the title.  Nintendo was hoping that Mario Bros U would have the same effect.  Needless to say that the title did not make Wii U an instant buy.  Mario Galaxy 2 sold worse year over year than the first one.  This could also contributed to the fact that people already played the first game, and the second was more of the same thing.  The non-gamers are tricky.  These people could ignore Wii Fit U because they will not see the need to buy the "same" game a third time.  Non-gamers do not understand technology.  Non-gamers do not understand the difference between generations a lot of the time.  Their philosophy is, "why spend a lot of money on a new system when the old one plays games just fine."  I wonder how Nintendo Land sold outside of the premium bundle?  Pikmin 3 is kind of up the air.  The new play control Pikmins I do not think sold extremely well.  Then again, the first Luigi's Mansion did not do that great either, but Dark Moon has sold quite a lot.  

Nintendo will eventually do fine in the market.  It might not live up to the Wii's legacy, but I do not foresee a Gamecube like fate for the system.  Sony and Microsoft still have their launches to go through.  For all we know both of those consoles could be ridiculously high priced or have huge failure rates.  Another reason the Wii U is not selling that well is because it is the first system to come out.  People are probably waiting for all three to launch before picking a console.  Nintendo is in a pretty good position to take on Xbox 720 and PS4.  The Wii U has already gone through its launch period and there were not any huge hardware problems.  The Wii U will have more games at the end of this year than either PS4 and Xbox 720.  I predict that Retro's new game, Mario's next 3D adventure, Bayonetta 2, Wonderful 101, and possibly Fire Emblem Wii U will be ready this fall along with the Windwaker remake.  I am sure Mario Kart and Smash Bros will arrive sometime in either winter or spring of next year.  That is a better lineup than Killzone, Infamous, and Knack.  No one really knows what Microsoft will come out with.  My guess is that the company will focus on Kinect and Forza for the launch of Xbox 720.  Gears of War and Halo just came out with new installments, so those games will not be ready for the launch of the Microsoft's new console.  The hardware that Microsoft and Sony are going with for the generation are very similar to one another, so I think at the very worst, The Wii U will be adopted as a secondary console.  I doubt that most will buy both Xbox 720 and PS4, but ignore Wii U.   

as long as they are amazing, of course it would be (for me).

I value quality over quanitity.

Windwaker is already coming out.  Throw in a 3D Mario or Mario Kart, I'll buy one.

The casuals will need Wii Sports 2 or Wii U fit.  

Wouldn't even be close to enough for me. I need more than just mario and mario kart to keep my interest up. They'll likely never be able to top the glory that was the first mario kart. This is going to be a rough year for nintendo and their sh!t leadership.

Wait, so you guys want two games a year?

Wow....

If they both come out this holiday, as I expect, I think they will help the system. Drop the price to $249 or $299 for 32GB set, add in good marketing for Pokemon Rumble U and Wind Waker HD and I really think Wii U sales will pick up.

Wait, so you guys want two games a year?

Wow....

Jaysonguy

I think most people are implying that they'd be okay with these two games being the big two holiday titles. Like Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 in Nov/Dec 2011 on 3DS. But of course, people want more than that during 12 months and expect more. No one is saying they want just those two. I know you'll come up with some way to make it look like that, but I think most readers are looking at this in the context of those two being the big two holiday games. Not including Pokemon Rumble U, Wind Waker HD, Yarn Yoshi, Wii U Party, Batman Arkham Origins, Assassin's Creed IV, COD 2013 (not announced but likely) amongst other Wii U 2013 software.

3D Mario, Smash 4, MK8, Zelda and Metroid will be system sellers for fans of these franchises but they won't decide the fate of the system by themselves, imo.

Wii had very good "family appeal" whears the WiiU is seen as just "another game system".

And not a very poweful or well-supported one at that.

Wait, so you guys want two games a year?

Wow....

Jaysonguy

2013:

• Lego City: Undercover
• Need for Speed: Most Wanted
• Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate
• Injustice: Gods Among Us
• Game & Wario 
• Pikmin 3
• Wii Fit U
• Pokemon Rumble U
• The Wonderful 101
• The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD
• Deus Ex: Human Revolution: Director's Cut
• Resident Evil: Revelations HD
• Sniper Elite V2
• Lego Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
• Splinter Cell: Blacklist
• Rayman Legends
• Watch_Dogs
• Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
• Batman: Arkham Origins
• Disney Infinity
• Disney's Planes
• Project CARS

Then unknowns:

• Super Mario U
• Mario Kart U
• Bayonetta 2
• Monolith Soft's X
• Super Smash Brothers 4
• The Legend of Zelda U
• Yarn Yoshi
• SMT x Fire Emblem
• Dragon Quest X

Chances are Super Mario U or Mario Kart U will make 2013 Holiday, probably not both. Yarn Yoshi wouldn't surprise me as being 2013. The rest seem like they'd be in 2014, Zelda U being the furthest off. Let's also not forget the indie titles.

Wii U Indie titles:

• Bit Trip Runner 2
• The Cave
• Toki Tori 2
• 8 Bit Boy
• A World of Keflings
• Cloudberry Kingdom
• DuckTales Remastered
• Dungeon's and Dragons: Chronicles of Mystara
• Giana Sisters: Twisted Dream
• Mutant Mudds Deluxe
• Two Brothers
• QUBE
• Shovel Knight

Some of those have already hit, others will in 2013. 

So while the 2013 list of games might not be amazing, it's certainly enough to keep me happy until the big releases from Nintendo. On top of that, I'm looking forward to the Virtual Console to get caught up on games I haven't played before, like Earthbound.

So to answer TC's question, I'd be okay if those two games came out this holiday but I don't think that's likely. I think we'll get one, and the other will be out later. Even then, I'd still be okay with it. Lots of stuff to play heading into the next couple of months.

By this December we will have Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Softs X game, Yoshi Land U, Mario Kart U, Wonderful 101, Windwaker Reborn, 3D Mario, Retro Studios game, Rayman Legends, COD MW4 lol...or COD Ghost?, AC4, Watch Dogs, Project Cars, Batman Arkham Origins. Thats enough. Not to mention other 3rd party games. So the Wii U will have a great library by then. Xbox 720 wont sell at all. Without a Halo game at launch nobody will upgrade from their 360. I wont get the 720 till Halo 6 then I can get Halo 5 and 6 at the same time. Which wont be for what? 5 years? As for the PS4 (So far from what we know) its best launch game is a Multiplat...Destiny. Which I plan to get on the Wii U. Plus with the PS4 being expensive, we are talking $599.99 at cheapest it will be a repeat of the PS3 launch. A failure. Wii U will have all its features and bugs worked out by the time the other systems come out. The PS4 and Xbox 720 wont sell to well but for those that do buy it, well they get to find all the bugs and issues with those systems while no good games are out for half a year to a year for those systems. Wii U will do fine.

P.S Ignore everything Jasonguy says lol. A total Nintendo troll/Hater.

To answer the question, no. While Mario Kart and Super Mario 3D would help the Wii U, much like most high profile games help the console they're released on, they alone won't be enough to cause a 180-degree turn in the system's fortunes. It's not that much better of a statement than saying that NSMBU would be "enough" when it was launched with the Wii U. They're all great games, but they don't solve the problem that is the system's lack of mass-market appeal. As simonate pointed out, this is the same situation that GameCube was in, and it's hard to see how the results would fare drastically better.

Honestly, I think the best Nintendo can ask for is that their games manage to keep the Wii U relevant enough while it tries to find a strategy to make the Wii U experience much more accessible and exciting to the average consumer. At the moment, Nintendo still doesn't understand why the console hasn't generated a lot of interest and demand, and to me, it seems like the company is gasping for straws in trying to figure it out. Case in point, I ran into Nintendo's new Wii U advertisements this morning (watch one of them here if you haven't seen them), and I just asked "does Nintendo believe that something like this can acutally get the average consumer excited about the console?" The fact that Nintendo is trying to prove that Wii U is 'different' from the Wii doesn't necessarily make it an attractive item once people look into it, and that has been something I think most people have overlooked when it comes to the whole "brand confusion" excuse.

The system's main attraction is still a controller that is more complex than any "standard" controller on a console, the system still costs more than current HD console offerings, while failing to prove it brings anything special to the table, and even with Mario Kart, Super Mario 3D, and NSMBU, the system still has a library that isn't very focused on the games and experiences the mass market gravitates to. Nintendo can work on correcting these things, but the philosophical flaws that the Wii U was designed with may have already done too much damage to the system's chances to truly turn itself around. Still, Nintendo could use the rest of the Wii U's life to rediscover its strengths in console design and rebuild its brand in that department, so it's still important for Nintendo to use the Wii U in whatever way(s) it can in the coming years. I just don't think anyone should be expecting some incredible success story coming from any one thing Nintendo releases or does for the console.

This guy would be happy.

He also is accepting friends.

My prediction is that this year we'll see 3D Mario, Wii Sports 3 and Wind Waker HD as the system sellers. Mario Kart early next year imo to maintain momentum and sales legs.

Throw in a Pikmin 3 and maybe one of the two Platinum games. Retro Studios' game. Release Wii Fit, Wii Party, Game & Wario, Luigi DLC after E3. Show us footage of 2014 games such as X, Yarn Yoshi, Smash 4. Show them all, only save Zelda U for next year.

Watch Dogs and Rayman Legends aside, Nintendo needs to make sure to get Fifa 14 and CoD:MW3. I think those will sell much better this time around if released next to the PS3/360 versions. 

Start pumping out original titles for eShop a la 3DS' Pushmo / Dillon / Picross / Harmoknight

Capitalize of the NFC feature, make a Skylanders-esque Pokemon game.

Is it enough? Depends on what enough means, I think the lineup is enough to establish the system doing GC/N64 numbers and survive in the home console business. 

By this December we will have Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Softs X game, Yoshi Land U, Mario Kart U, Wonderful 101, Windwaker Reborn, 3D Mario, Retro Studios game, Rayman Legends, COD MW4 lol...or COD Ghost?, AC4, Watch Dogs, Project Cars, Batman Arkham Origins. Thats enough. Not to mention other 3rd party games. So the Wii U will have a great library by then. Xbox 720 wont sell at all. Without a Halo game at launch nobody will upgrade from their 360. I wont get the 720 till Halo 6 then I can get Halo 5 and 6 at the same time. Which wont be for what? 5 years? As for the PS4 (So far from what we know) its best launch game is a Multiplat...Destiny. Which I plan to get on the Wii U. Plus with the PS4 being expensive, we are talking $599.99 at cheapest it will be a repeat of the PS3 launch. A failure. Wii U will have all its features and bugs worked out by the time the other systems come out. The PS4 and Xbox 720 wont sell to well but for those that do buy it, well they get to find all the bugs and issues with those systems while no good games are out for half a year to a year for those systems. Wii U will do fine.

P.S Ignore everything Jasonguy says lol. A total Nintendo troll/Hater.

Master_Of_Fools

You bet your socks. If there is no DELAYS then each of those will be out. Nintendo doesnt show games that are 5 years away. They arent Square Enix with Showing Kingdom Hearts 3 then 5 years go buy and nothing. When Nintendo SHOWS games that means (Without delays) they are 1 to 2 years away from release. But dont you worry I will still be around when Im proven right this December. Just like how I will be right about Retros game being Starfox but cant go into that due to NDA anyway time will be on my side.

[QUOTE="Master_Of_Fools"]

By this December we will have Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Softs X game, Yoshi Land U, Mario Kart U, Wonderful 101, Windwaker Reborn, 3D Mario, Retro Studios game, Rayman Legends, COD MW4 lol...or COD Ghost?, AC4, Watch Dogs, Project Cars, Batman Arkham Origins. Thats enough. Not to mention other 3rd party games. So the Wii U will have a great library by then. Xbox 720 wont sell at all. Without a Halo game at launch nobody will upgrade from their 360. I wont get the 720 till Halo 6 then I can get Halo 5 and 6 at the same time. Which wont be for what? 5 years? As for the PS4 (So far from what we know) its best launch game is a Multiplat...Destiny. Which I plan to get on the Wii U. Plus with the PS4 being expensive, we are talking $599.99 at cheapest it will be a repeat of the PS3 launch. A failure. Wii U will have all its features and bugs worked out by the time the other systems come out. The PS4 and Xbox 720 wont sell to well but for those that do buy it, well they get to find all the bugs and issues with those systems while no good games are out for half a year to a year for those systems. Wii U will do fine.

P.S Ignore everything Jasonguy says lol. A total Nintendo troll/Hater.

TxTech1923

You bet your socks. If there is no DELAYS then each of those will be out. Nintendo doesnt show games that are 5 years away. They arent Square Enix with Showing Kingdom Hearts 3 then 5 years go buy and nothing. When Nintendo SHOWS games that means (Without delays) they are 1 to 2 years away from release. But dont you worry I will still be around when Im proven right this December. Just like how I will be right about Retros game being Starfox but cant go into that due to NDA anyway time will be on my side.

[QUOTE="TxTech1923"][QUOTE="Master_Of_Fools"]

By this December we will have Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Softs X game, Yoshi Land U, Mario Kart U, Wonderful 101, Windwaker Reborn, 3D Mario, Retro Studios game, Rayman Legends, COD MW4 lol...or COD Ghost?, AC4, Watch Dogs, Project Cars, Batman Arkham Origins. Thats enough. Not to mention other 3rd party games. So the Wii U will have a great library by then. Xbox 720 wont sell at all. Without a Halo game at launch nobody will upgrade from their 360. I wont get the 720 till Halo 6 then I can get Halo 5 and 6 at the same time. Which wont be for what? 5 years? As for the PS4 (So far from what we know) its best launch game is a Multiplat...Destiny. Which I plan to get on the Wii U. Plus with the PS4 being expensive, we are talking $599.99 at cheapest it will be a repeat of the PS3 launch. A failure. Wii U will have all its features and bugs worked out by the time the other systems come out. The PS4 and Xbox 720 wont sell to well but for those that do buy it, well they get to find all the bugs and issues with those systems while no good games are out for half a year to a year for those systems. Wii U will do fine.

P.S Ignore everything Jasonguy says lol. A total Nintendo troll/Hater.

Master_Of_Fools

By this December we will have Pikmin 3, Bayonetta 2, Monolith Softs X game, Yoshi Land U, Mario Kart U, Wonderful 101, Windwaker Reborn, 3D Mario, Retro Studios game, Rayman Legends, COD MW4 lol...or COD Ghost?, AC4, Watch Dogs, Project Cars, Batman Arkham Origins. Thats enough. Not to mention other 3rd party games. So the Wii U will have a great library by then. Xbox 720 wont sell at all. Without a Halo game at launch nobody will upgrade from their 360. I wont get the 720 till Halo 6 then I can get Halo 5 and 6 at the same time. Which wont be for what? 5 years? As for the PS4 (So far from what we know) its best launch game is a Multiplat...Destiny. Which I plan to get on the Wii U. Plus with the PS4 being expensive, we are talking $599.99 at cheapest it will be a repeat of the PS3 launch. A failure. Wii U will have all its features and bugs worked out by the time the other systems come out. The PS4 and Xbox 720 wont sell to well but for those that do buy it, well they get to find all the bugs and issues with those systems while no good games are out for half a year to a year for those systems. Wii U will do fine.

 

P.S Ignore everything Jasonguy says lol. A total Nintendo troll/Hater.

Master_Of_Fools

Since when is PS4 going to cost $600.  Your information is incorrect.  You also forgot about Killzone, Knack, The Witness, Infamous Second Son, Level 5's new game, The Last Guardian, and Drive Club.  Killzone, Knack, and Infamous have almost been confirmed as launch games.  The Last Guardian is pretty much guaranteed to be launch window due to the fact Shuhei Yoshida has only confirmed the game is stil in development, but has not shown any gameplay.  My guess is that Drive Club will be out in spring of 2014.  Most of Evolution's other games have come out around between February and May, so I would say that Drive Club will be out by then.  Your philosophy of how things will go is rather skewed.  Microsoft has not announced anything, and yet you claim to know that people will not buy the system due to another Halo game not being ready.  I do not know where you are getting the ideas that PS4 will cost $600.  Nothing has been officially stated.  All the rumors point to the system being priced at $400, so you are a good bit off. 

Half the games you listed are going to come out for current generation systems like 360 and PS3.  The games that Platinum makes do not sell extremely well.  I doubt anyone is going to rush out and buy a Wii U for Wonderful 101.  Bayonetta 2 sales will be interesting.  People played the first one on othre consoles, so they already associate that franchise with PS3 and 360.  This means that they probably do not want to play the sequel on Wii U.  There is nothing anyone can do about, but it is doubtufl that people will cave in and buy a Wii U for Bayonetta.  The Japanese might do so, but not the Western world. 

The Wii U will do fine this holiday season, but I would not count Microsoft or Sony out just because of multiplats.  We have not seen anything from any of their first party studios gameplay wise.  No one knows if the 3D Mario game and Mario Kart will sell crazy like the Wii versions did.  Mario Bros U did not move systems like Mario Bros Wii did.  Will these games still sell a lot?  Sure, I do not see a reason why they would not.   Monolith's new game will probably not come out in the West this year if it comes out at all.  I believe the Kirby's Return to Dreamland game was supposed to come out on Gamecube back in 2004.  The game did not come out until 2011.  It took Nintendo seven years to finish that game.  Donkey Kong Barrel Blast also took many years to make.  That game was supposed to be an early Gamecube game, but did not come out until 2007.  People knew about Wii Music before the Wii even came out.  Nintendo is just like anyone else.  The company also teases games for a long time befre they release.  I beleive the submarine concept for Steel diver was shown off as a tech demo for the original DS. 

Just came in to read Jaysonguy's response.nini200