I actually think once the launch window comes and goes the demand for this console will be far less pronounced than people anticipate.
The Wii had a massive casual appeal this system simply doesn't enjoy and while I have no doubt Nintendo will manufacture shortages to make it seem like they can't make the Wii U fast enough I just don't see it being that hard to come by once the hype settles.
The only way I'd even consider getting one is if Gamestop offered some obscene trade-in offer for the Wii that significantly offset the price of the new hardware.
Even then, I might pass because I'm currently indifferent to the console and its offerings.
I'm in the same boat. I just fundamentally differ with Nintendo regarding how gaming should go, and what their role should be as a steward of it. But most importantly, there's nothing on it that I really want to play that I can't get somewhere else besides the new Mario game, and the days of me buying Nintendo consoles for one title are over.
My purchase of the Wii was almost perfunctory and I'm done making those types of purchases.
I also couldn't agree more with your assessment of Nintendo's current direction. I really wanted and needed the Wii U to be more than a slightly more powerful PS3/360 with a tablet and yet that is precisely what is being delivered.
My instincts told me to part ways with Nintendo back when the Wii launched and looking back I should have trusted my gut because I really didn't need the system considering how many phenomenal experiences the HD Twins delivered.
I also have this nagging suspicion that the Wii U might be the same type of stumbling block the N64 was back in the 1990's: a miscalculation that sends Nintendo rocketing back to the bottom of the console market.