Xbox One, PS4 attach rate will be 3.25, says analyst

The Xbox One and PlayStation 4 will have roughly a 3.25 software attach rate--that is, how many games are sold for every hardware unit purchased--during their initial launch periods, Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz said today in a note to investors.

With 18 retail launch-day titles available for Xbox One and 14 for the PS4, the 3.25 aggregate attach rate suggests an average 20 percent launch window attach rate across all titles. Battlefield 4 will perform slightly better, Creutz said, attaching to Xbox One and PS4 at a rate of around 30 percent at launch. Madden NFL 25 and NBA 2K14 are also expected to attach at higher rates.

Games like Zumba Fitness, Zoo Tycoon, Fighter Within, and Injustice: Gods Among Us will have lower attach rates than the 20 percent average, Creutz noted.

By comparison, the Xbox 360's attach rate was 4.2 during its initial November-December launch window in 2005, while the PlayStation 3's was 1.9 in 2006, Creutz said. The Xbox 360 retailed for $299/$299 at launch, while the PS3 went for $499/$599, meaning the total hardware/software spend for each platform was roughly consistent in the mid-$600 range.

The 3.25 attach rate for Xbox One and PS3 models a more conservative average total spend, even before the 7-8 years of inflation are factored in, Creutz said. The PS4 launched last Friday and sold 1 million units in North America during its first 24 hours. The Xbox One goes on sale this Friday, November 22.