Report: Japanese publishers doubt Wii longevity

Scarcely a week goes by without Nintendo's rising stock price or record revenues being touted as evidence of the Wii's undeniable popularity. Most recently, Nintendo is predicting that its console's unparalleled demand will continue into the holiday season, leaving many would-be buyers out in the cold this Christmas. However, despite the rosy forecasts, some within the industry have come to think of the Wii as a fad, one that will fade from its mainstream popularity as quickly as it rose.

That sentiment was at the center of a report from Japan's Nikkei Business Daily [registration required] this week, in which several Japanese software publishers expressed both uncertainty as to how to best capitalize on the expanded market, and concern over the longevity of Nintendo's console.

According to the report, despite the Japanese gaming software industry sales spiking by 30 percent in 2006, nearly 90 percent of the growth in copies sold was attributable to Nintendo's in-house games. "This means sales of other software makers were practically unchanged from last year's levels," the report noted.

Elementary-school children have traditionally been the main buyers of Nintendo game systems, so says the report, and this caused many publishers to "miscalculate demand" in developing games for the Wii. With more than 70 percent of Nintendo Wii owners aged over 20, and 51 percent female, traditionally niche games have become surprisingly popular. The report specifically calls out Mario Party 8, which sold more than 830,000 units in 2006, ranking it third in the year's overall sales charts. The report cites an executive at a leading software house as saying, "I never imagined our titles could be outsold by a party game."

Despite recent reports that Japan's top publishing houses are shifting their efforts to Wii development, the report claims that software purveyors are worried about the Wii's sustainability. "The Wii is like [Tae-Bo creator Billy Blanks'] Billy's Boot Camp weight-loss program on DVD. People bought it out of curiosity, and it's likely a lot of them haven't used it," said the report, quoting a major software publisher rep.

Cause for concern stems from the Wii's recent slip in Japanese console hardware charts. Wii sales were down 32 percent in August, which the report notes was the lowest sales month since December 2006, when the console launched in Japan. With 168,000 units sold, the August dip was the second consecutive month where the Wii deviated from its formerly stable sales of around 300,000 units.