NPD Analyst Predicts Best-Selling Games And Consoles Of Holiday 2020

The busy holiday shopping season is nearly upon us--Amazon's Prime Day begins October 13, with Black Friday coming in November before the holidays. Video games are expected to have a huge holiday at retail, and now NPD analyst Mat Piscatella has released his predictions.

In a blog, Piscatella says he expects total spending on video games in the US to reach $13.4 billion in November and December, rising 24 percent compared to last year and setting a new holiday season record. Console hardware is expected to drive the growth, which makes sense given that the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S consoles are slated for release in November and are expected to be very popular.

Piscatella said the total amount of money spent on video games in the entirety of 2020 might surpass $50 billion, which would be a new all-time high for the US.

In terms of specific predictions for holiday 2020, Piscatella said he believes the PS5 and Xbox Series X/S consoles will be "among the hottest holiday gifting items of 2020." He said it might be tough to find a console. "Units will be tough to find with continued strong demand into 2021," Piscatella predicted.

He also predicted that the Nintendo Switch, not the PS5 or Xbox Series X/S consoles, will be the best-selling console of holiday 2020. "The lack of available inventory of new PlayStations and Xbox systems will leave Switch as an appealing available option (although supply may still be difficult to find)," he said.

If you're looking for a deal on hardware, you probably won't find one this holiday, Piscatella said. "The surge in hardware demand seen throughout the spring and summer months of 2020 has left inventories for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One consoles lean, leaving little incentive to price promote," he said." While some bundling for legacy hardware may exist, particularly around Black Friday, I do not see price promotion being a significant factor in the holiday 2020 market."

In terms of games, Piscatella said he expects Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War to be the best-selling game of the holiday season and 2020 overall. If that happens, it would mark the 12th straight year that Call of Duty has been the top-selling game in the US.

Head to the NPD blog to see Piscatella's full predictions for holiday 2020.