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Microsoft: Next-gen console sales could hit 1 billion

Xbox maker believes non-gaming entertainment capabilities of next-generation consoles can lead to record sales.

1209 Comments

Microsoft believes next-generation consoles will sell over 1 billion units and aims to elevate the long-running Xbox 360 to 100 million sold in the next five years.

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Speaking with OXM, Microsoft senior vice president of Interactive Entertainment Business Yusuf Mehdi claimed the consoles' deep media opportunities will lead to record industry sales.

"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30 percent," Mehdi said. "So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade."

"We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units," he added. "That's how we're thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward."

Speaking specifically about the Xbox 360, Mehdi said he is hopeful that the aging platform can reach 100 million units sold in the next five years. Sales currently stand at 77 million. He explained that Microsoft has a number of ideas in mind to go about achieving the milestone, one of which is "new price points."

"We believe over the next five years we can break a 100 million unit installed base," Medhi said. "That's something we're shooting for; it's not a financial plan as such, it's just rough numbers if you will. To sell another 25 million, half of those will probably come from replacements, but half will come from new buyers."

"And the way we'll break into those segments is by hitting new price points, getting new classes of entertainment to come with the Xbox, and breaking into new customer segments," he added. "So you'll see the Xbox 360 continue to exist, even as we launch the next generation Xbox One."

Microsoft Game Studios executive Phil Spencer said earlier this week that the Xbox 360 will be "very vibrant" for years to come and even teased a "huge" announcement for the platform to be made next month at the 2013 Electronic Entertainment Expo.

"I think the [Xbox 360] is going to be very vibrant for many years. In fact, we have a huge, I think it's huge, [Xbox 360] announcement for E3 that I keep wanting to talk about, but I can't," Spencer said. "I think it will surprise people. I loved what we did last year with Minecraft; bring Minecraft to the box; six million units later it's kind of a beast. I think there's a lot of life in the [Xbox 360] for years to come."

Nintendo's Wii U launched last year and has sold 3.45 million units to date. The Xbox One and PlayStation 4 are due to launch later this year. Neither company has provided sales forecasts for either device yet.

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rdwolf260

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Did M$ just create a Wii clone? They want it to appeal to the masses instead of gamers who spend 10 or 20 hours a week playing games, people who spend money to be entertained in immersive experiences. Instead, they're making it into a box that people can use to watch tv?! And only those in the US at that! I love NFL, but what in the hell can Xbox One do for my Fantasy team that I can't do already on my laptop and much quicker at that? Do they really want people to use their machine to watch tv instead of playing games? People spend some real money on games, how are they going to make money when people use it to watch tv? Why make gaming a secondary feature? Nintendo attracted many casual players to video games by making the Wii, despite their resounding success, how many publishers are excited about how well their Wii game library is selling? That platform is so full of shovelware that most Wii owners I know don't even touch it anymore. That is what M$ is in danger of doing, attracting casual gamers who'll end up not buying games and then M$'s game library ends up being mostly Kinect shovelware. What developer in their right might would want to make games for such a platform? A new name could be Wii Xbox or Xbox Wii.

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Spartan_418

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Everyone take a deep breath and remember that Yusuf isn't saying he thinks the Xbox One will sell 1 billion, he's talking about all three consoles combined. He's not even saying he thinks the One will sell better than the other two; realistically, Microsoft probably isn't planning on winning this next console gen.

Microsoft also isn't entirely stupid and they realize that the PS4 and Wii U also have a lot of non-gaming functionality. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony use the "It Only Does Everything" marketing line again, for the PS4.

The numbers he's coming up with are, potentially, not unrealistic; imagine if the PS4 and Xbox One managed to completely replace all other DVD players, Blu-ray players, and cable boxes. Gaming is growing as a medium, and along with that, the other non-gaming devices sitting next to your TV are becoming redundant.

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Fanible

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@Spartan_418

No he's not. Reread the article carefully. He says that industry experts believe that the console (individual console) could sell upwards of 300 to 400 million units this generation. He goes on to say those are the numbers it would sell if it were a game console ALONE.

Then he goes on to say that because their console is going to be so much more than just about games, "We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units."

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benelori

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@Fanible @Spartan_418

He says this:

"So this generation is about 300 million units"....not the console as you say, but the entire generation

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Fanible

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@benelori @Fanible

You're right, although this generation is a loose term that could be associated with one console alone. Misreading the part about a 30% increase is what tripped me.

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cursealoud

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Edited By cursealoud

@Fanible @Spartan_418 HE WAS TALKING ABOUT ALL NEXT GEN CONSOLES. Not just Xbox One. I dont care what you post, you might want to reread the article yourself

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Carcinogin

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I am new to the comment sections of this site but I want to state the only way I could see Microsoft actually getting 400 million units sold or even near that amount. This is an email I wrote to them that has been sent but want get it out their publicly as well. So I am commenting on the sites I frequent and letting it be heard by others, I am a Sony fan but I live in Washington state, and do not want Microsoft to fail as it would increase the unemployment rate here.

Microsoft, I see you are ambitious with the Xbox One reveal, as a Gamer I may be put off on the idea of having you produce your own shows but that is just me. The idea of offering an all in one device sounds promising but the only way you can actually succeed in selling 400 Million units as you predicted would be to get in the Internet Service Providing business. Hear me out, if you offer a services that is similar to Google fiber in price and speeds and advertise that service and entice people to getting it by offering Free Gold member ships when they sign a 2 year contract, you will have it in the bag. I know the infrastructure would be costly to implement but to have existing consumers for years to come will surely cover your cost, not only will this make you #1 in the living room it can help push your Xbox One Entertainment brand, the services you would be providing would complement the system, you would effectively be urging and nudging people to come to your service and experience Xbox One to its full potential, since you are getting into the TV market, if they are not gamers, and need to entice them to get your services but if it is priced like Google Fiber or around there this shouldn't be a problem, you can have your own premium Channel that can show the shows you are producing, or get a network to help fund those expensive shows and beg for the chance to be own your service. I think you should try it out in Redmond, WA see how it takes and then start spreading throughout the Nation. I am a Sony fan I will be honest but I believe in American companies, and the route you are taking on seems plausible if you get into that industry, being the Middleman of an already overburdened consumer will not help you advance in the industry, it make you appear greedy, Let me help you. Take this advice don't let this email get buried. I may not be a bright person when it comes to education, and all this might be utter nonsense to you, but if you are not seeing the figures you want take my advice. I don't want to see an American company drop out of our Console wars, I love the competition you guys bring I loved the 360 at the beginning of its life cycle. I know you are moving on to become an Entertainment device, but you won't be able to do it, your target market as of now is middle class Americans, working poor can't afford to buy your product, You dream big that is fine but you seem to be presenting yourself as arrogant.

Please just take my words into consideration, you want to make money spend a little for some infrastructure for Fiber cable, and you will make a ton in return, your investors may be wary but if Microsofts Xbox1 starts to plummet since you decided to make your competition not only consoles but Apple, Google, Roku box you may not come out of this so well. You also seemed to have alienated the rest of the world by telling them your big selling point for this system the all in one box won't be working at launch out side of America, serious if that is the case don't release it out side of America but I know you have to or else you will miss the initial install base.

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Spartan_418

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@Carcinogin If you're going to post a wall of text, at least break it down into smaller paragraphs

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Ayato_Kamina_1

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@Spartan_418 @Carcinogin Yeah seriously, that's just a lazy post where you've copied and pasted it and even messed up the formatting.

If they do what you suggest they risk even more so of broadcasting to the world that gaming isn't their priority. Whilst there is a slight indication of that already with all the features they've highlighted on their console, it's still not overly implied. Sure the majority of fans will worry that that is the case, but in the end they'll have faith that M$ will stick to what sells game consoles and that's games. If they go the route of offering internet services as well as TV channels, I don't see them faring too well in comparison to Sony.

When you think that Sony has the electronics department with TVs, cameras, phones etc it still draws a line between its gaming division and its electronics. With this, consumers know that the playstation is a gaming console that focuses on games.

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danielpetermoll

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you have all been fooled ... all of you.... on i know i might be stretching it but the only reason im gonna buy an abox one is cause i love my 360.... anyway coming back to everyone being fooled.. look at www.thetechgame.com

it confirms there wont be an activation fee for use games and the always online thing being crap has being confirmed for a long time......

personally i think microsoft knew this all along.... they just created negative press to get everyones attention.... now that theyve got it they creating positive press by illliminating all the negative stuff... basically all you idiot sony fanboys no longer have a reason to not by the xbox one..

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Ayato_Kamina_1

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@danielpetermoll Firstly... the idiot sony fanboys will be buying the PS4 because they're fanboys, that's the whole point of being a fanboy. Secondly the PS4 has decided to slow ball their information release of their console and this means that there's plenty more to be revealed at E3 and it'll have it in more recent memory.

All M$ is doing now is garnering the mentality that "Xbox1 has this bad thing, I won't be buying it, Sony will be getting my business". Just because later on it's revealed that it won't have this thing doesn't mean consumers are all of a sudden going to go "well, guess i will buy it instead of the PS4".

It'll come down to which console offers the better gaming experience. This'll be made up by their gaming catalogues and features related to gaming.

Just because people are talking about your product doesn't mean it's a good thing if the thing they're saying is "well i won't be buying that"

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nonfanboygamer1

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@danielpetermoll Yes, everyone wants negative press. Your logic is flawless

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danielpetermoll

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@nonfanboygamer1 @danielpetermoll any press is good press

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xOmniCloudx

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@danielpetermoll @nonfanboygamer1 A myth that's been disproven many times. Ask businesses with bad press and low sales because of it. Or even a politician.

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Max_160

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microsoft's overconfidence in fooling the consumer will be their biggest downfall.

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jameson425

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IN your fucking dreams man!

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PStrife

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How precious, he mentioned replacement sales. Other sales would be back-up sales, since this next console has no BC and he is literally admitting to engineering problems with the 360's lasting.

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downloadthefile

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And Microsoft isn't getting a penny from me. I'm still not even 100% on PS4 but what ive heard is def better than from xbox.

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cursealoud

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@downloadthefile Best comment all day. I said the same thing. We really don't know what the PS4 has in store, but I am leaning to their side. Hopefully they see the backlash MS endured and they make some last minute changes if they were considering the same thing.

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Ayato_Kamina_1

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@cursealoud @downloadthefile Once again that's the added benefit of not revealing all your cards straight away. Something Sony are very good at doing.

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isv666

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Obviously he's talking about next-gen consoles as a whole, including the PS4 and Wii U. But a billion units? Maybe if all of them have their own version of a RROD over and over for 10 years, then you might reach a billion units shipped out, not necessarily sold.

To even get close to that number, they need to penetrate the non-gaming market, which seems to be something Microsoft is definitely aiming for. And that is an incredibly difficult market to get into with a gaming system. And that's just how many consumers view it. Despite their heavy approach to an all-in-one media system, to the average Joe who doesn't play games, it's still an Xbox which is still a video game system. With enough boxes sitting in their entertainment system now, they don't want to add another. Especially with a (most likely) hefty price tag.

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brittjoe777

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Microsoft must be hinting at their next venture in comedy!!! 1billion DWL!!!!

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matrixman2k

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The sad thing is that gamers keep remaining around 100 million mark each generation/cycle as for the ps2s 140million or so, well, that was for the replacement consoles... Even the 360s 77million is fake because they forgot to mention rrod units that was still around till jasper (just before the small360)... They (MS, Sony and Nintendo) failed to bring in any more new people and expand the market; they either sold to the same people or replaced faulty machines. I personally know people that own or used to own more than 1 console.

the same thing is hapening to my area where we already have sainsbury and morisson but still tesco is building another supermarket targeting the same people. I can only shop in one store and after I have got my fruits/veg. etc. the other stores perishable foods starts to go bad and end up in the bin ready for landfill sites. Some poor African/Asian could have lived on that. I only need so much per week, the car park and convenience of open till late is good they all do that, but they should give the option to some other people in some rural parts of the country opportunity.


The billion unit sales thing will never happen unless they sold xbox1 for cheap and to the Chinese and Indians since they are the most populous countries on the planet... Could even make it cheap enough for the poor African continent. There are people around, problem is they are mostly in the poorer countries and MS wants a profits and will not give out their machines like some charity................ another thing they could do is leak some hacking information to the hackers, that always increase sales of the console maybe not software,, but that'll be loss for 3rd parties not hardware maker MS.

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DeanoFantasy

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This is one of the most outrageous cry for help topics I have ever read, what a load of senseless tosh.

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pabman101

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yes we can all dream that xbox live is free and no dodgy drm and can play games that we paid for and not buy activation codes to play multiplayer or second hand games


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alvarokike

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Edited By alvarokike

They literally think there are 1 billion idiots out there, M$ you dense motherfuckers

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wcwj26

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If only......

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J4m3sR4n0r72

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Edited By J4m3sR4n0r72

@wcwj26

It's apparent that Microsoft lives by Adam Savage's mantra "I reject your reality and substitute my own!"

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pabman101

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Edited By pabman101

f**k kinect just another gimmick all we want is a pure gaming console like

ps4 i never that i would say that as a loyal 360 gamer

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midnightclub3du

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Edited By midnightclub3du

Kinect=big brother

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pabman101

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well anything for a quick buck in ms eyes

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MN121MN

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I don't know why but talking about "deep media opportunities" makes my mind runs towards "advertisement"

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pabman101

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well its microsoft but they cant decide whether to make a gaming machine or a cable sat box but everybody knows what the answer here but ms haven't got a clue the 360 wasn't a entertainment system is a good clue

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SteveM21

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Edited By SteveM21

So basically Microsoft plans to take a gaming console, market it to non-gamers, and expects to sell four times as many consoles than their last console....

well than makes sense

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pabman101

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how can they think that the entertainment side of the next gen is going to save them get a grip its supposed to be a gaming console what clowns are running that company if people wanted a entertainment system they would asked them not build a console just as they think that we already have it even with there fantasy football crap and voice recognition they should sack all there staff and bring in people that are in touch with reality

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danielpetermoll

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Edited By danielpetermoll

@pabman101 oh no isnt it a gaming console wont it be able to play games?

seriously grow up...... how can being able to do more things be bad....

btw you can turn all those extra features off while the rest of us enjoy them

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nonfanboygamer1

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@danielpetermoll @pabman101 The problem is when the focus isn't on games. BTW everyone doesn't want to pay for extra to watch Xbox TV

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TigusVidiks

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Edited By TigusVidiks

@danielpetermoll @nonfanboygamer1 @pabman101 it's not the features themselves, it's the focus of their presentation mostly that got people worried. It's troubling that they saw actually presenting games as secondary in their announcement because it can hint to a commercial strategy. That added to the new taxes and used policies, makes it a less attractive deal to the average gaming consumer. At least so far. Perhaps after they announce more stuff perception will change-.

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danielpetermoll

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@nonfanboygamer1 @danielpetermoll @pabman101 and microsoft are gonna force you to?

no , ofcourse not... but maybe some of us enjoy xbox tv and will use that feature.. if you dont you wont have to....

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fanirama

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Someone is smoking way too much crack in Microsoft and feeding the wrong data to the higher ups.


$1bn in sales. LOL.... suuuuure.. with all the brouhaha around Xbox One, there will be lower adoption rate when word of mouth starts spreading. Launch will be good but not sure beyond that unless they change their strategy.


As a 10 year Xbox Live veteran, I am not going for Xbox One at launch nor have any plans for it. Things pissing me off are - Always online (even once a day is not acceptable to me), used games fee bullshit, lack of innovative launch games. I lol'd at Call of Duty DLC exclusive. Seriously, too much crack there.

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silverwings21

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" Next-gen console sales could hit 1 billion." I see crack-cocaine is freely available around the offices of Microsoft.

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D_K

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Already calling out a figurative replacement number? .. . . . . Ummmm... that's not good


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xxxtcr

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so 1/6 of the planet will buy this piece of shit, or 50 million people will have to buy it more than once because it takes a shit every couple months, which do u think is more likely

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deactivated-5ff9a77a36328

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King of wishful thinking. Now tell yourself your shits not stinking.

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trueace16

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Microsoft here is some free advice. If you wanted the xbox to sell to people that are not gamers as a all in one media box you might have wanted to take xbox out of the name of said unit. You see im no marketing genius or anything but im quite sure the xbox brand is for gaming consoles. Therefore it doesnt matter what the hell the xbox can do in customers minds its primary function is playing games. No one if going to buy a 400 dvr. Thats why you dnt see too many tivos. You should have sold the xbox 1 as a gaming system first and then set it apart from the ps4 and wiiu with the additional features....................................TLDR Microsoft you messed up.

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deactivated-5ff9a77a36328

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Good for them. I still wouldn't have one if they gave it to me. Don't need my system to spy on me or want to support m$.

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hzip598

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Edited By hzip598

@Rayzakk are you paranoid, your game system isn't going to spy on you, go lock yourself in your house and don't come out if you think your xbox is spying on you.

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kingnothing47

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@hzip598 @Rayzakk

The kinect is capable of recording you playing so it can stream that video back to the developer as feedback, I sure as hell wouldn't want that spying on me in my barrack, it had better be an optional feature.

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VelvetKevorkian

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Edited By VelvetKevorkian

I'm certain I will be buying a newer 360 after the X1 comes out, & that's about all Microsoft will be getting from me for this generation.

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