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GTAV unlikely until 2012 - Analyst

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey bullish on Take-Two, believes next installment in series could sell 16 million copies, generate $750 million.

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Take-Two recently announced it was shifting its fiscal year to end on March 31 in order to better put it in line with other major game publishers. Today, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey issued an analyst note, which laid out some predictions for the New York-based publisher. Namely, that it will remain profitable even if the next Grand Theft Auto doesn't come out during its next fiscal year.

Don't expect the next GTA until 2012…at the earliest.
Don't expect the next GTA until 2012…at the earliest.

Hickey believes that Take-Two's 2011 fiscal year, which runs from April 1, 2011, until March 31, 2012, will feature two major game highlights: Max Payne 3 and L.A. Noire. He thinks those two games will lead a software lineup--which may also include the long-delayed Duke Nukem Forever--that can make the company profitable in a year without a GTA or a Red Dead game.

When GTAV does come out, "likely" in Take-Two's fiscal 2013 (April 2012-March 2013), Hickey believes it will be yet another blockbuster, selling upward of 16 million copies and generating over $750 million by itself. He predicts that year will also see the release of BioShock Infinite, which he estimates will sell over 4 million copies and $182 million in sales.

One major reason for the high sales expectations is the increased combined PlayStation 3/Xbox 360 installed based in the US, which he believes will be 41 million units by the end of calendar year 2010. That compares to just 14 million in April 2008, when Grand Theft Auto IV originally came out.

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hotgamer

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Don't even expect it in 2012, don't expect GTA5 to be the next GTA at all. They will obviously roll out one or two spinoffs like they did between GTA3 and GTA4. You can probably expect GTA5 on the next set of consoles.

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theunloved

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I think taking it back to London would be awesome for the next GTA.

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PixelAddict

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...and approximately 1 month after its release you will see 1000 copies in your local Gamestop. Save the date.

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metalkid9

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I don't care where R* sets it in since they never fail to impress but as long as the game mechanics are better than GTA4 I'll be happy.

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DJ_Magneto

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@Viral-venom13 Couldn't have said it better myself. Let's go somewhere new for this new GTA.

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iloveyourface

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"Hickey believes it will be yet another blockbuster..." this guy's a genius! he also predicted that most people eat at least once a day. somebody give this man a raise. *clap*

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wars45

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needs a newcity

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videogameking25

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I just want to ride a bike again.

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igorcepro

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If they change game engine to be almost or the same like in Mafia 2 or even better :) and the story to be long and interesting enough like in previous parts then it's worth waiting, my opinion. And the choice of the city would be also a suprise, because they "spent" almost all choices in previous parts

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men-o-war

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Never believe anything thing an analyst says or predicts. I've made that mistake in the past, never again. They really are full of s***!

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deactivated-5ed679841254d

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It better take place in the future...j/k But seriously, I hope Rockstar is innovating GTA, because GTA4 felt like the rest of the Franchise.

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mohammad2020

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I Hope It Will release in 2012.

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Viral-venom13

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Why does everybody keep hoping for another Vice City or Los Santos game area to be use or something? Guys, those areas were all cool and all to use and explore in the past but that's just it, they WERE ALREADY USED AND SEEN B 4!!!!!!! When a new version of the GTA series is coming, i don't know about you guys but i always hope that they use a new area with a fresh new story that was never seen before in the GTA universe as that way it makes the game feel a bit more mysterious and keeps you as the gamer more curious as to whatelse can you expect that is out there to see or do in that world which was 1 of the major reasons why so many favored San Andreas and Vice City a lot as R* was bringing us diversity with it's many environments that tie into the GTA universe!! GTA IV was cool but i wasn't too buzzed when i learn't that it would've been once again set in Liberty City although i must admit it was gorgeously recreated over on that RAGE technology. I don't mean 2 sound like the party pooper in the set but just as many, i would love to see a NEW GTA with NEW NEVER B 4 USED AREAS that is blended with a cool story and unique new gameplay mechanics as well as many of those past ones we loved that were from like San Andreas that the "Ballad of Gay Tony" expansion sorta brought back to the table!!

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Admir001

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GTA V needs to be on Jamaica this time.Really

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Microsteve

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We want more GTA!!!

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Bigbudd0045

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No GTA V, i think you might get another major spinoff. Not DLC, but GTA: Vegas (or something like that). I think Rockstar will keep GTA V for the next gen.

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vencc

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WOOH GTA V IV was gold

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raimunds

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[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

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DarkAngeles

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@Nightrain76 Grand Theft Auto IV is better than any Call of Duty game in existence, and just because it have removed some extra-ordinarily elements from Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, doesn't mean it was one of the best games of 2008.

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AVIDBOY5

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Sorry for being confusing in my earlier statement, but what I was saying was that I would be happy if Rockstar came out with just an updated version of Vice City or San Andreas with improved graphics, multiplayer and controls. everything else can be left the same. @sabas10 Los Santos would be awesome with those kind of updates to it. Lets hope Rockstar is reading all of this.

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Nightrain76

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GTAIV eliminated so many things in San Andreas that I loved. GTA has been eclipsed now by Call of Duty, Metal Gear Solid 4, etc. Rockstar better bring their "A" game with the next GTA. They can not afford another lackluster GTA with no planes, army, big maps, good radio stations, etc.

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sabas10

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@AVIDBOY5 Vice City and Liberty City have had enough apearances in GTA games, so indeed let's take it back to Los Santos, the only city (or state) that hasn't been used for multiple GTA games. Just think of Los Santos with way more content, the graphics from RDD, the diversity of GTA IV, and the multiplayer from it's original (I mean the MP Mod, wich Rockstars tried to copy in GTA IV, with no succes)

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ziproy

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So wat are you we talking about? GTA 5 or a vice city spin off?

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AVIDBOY5

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I would just be happy with an updated remake of Vice City or San Andreas

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8dillinger8

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i dont know what to believe any more, first the "analysts" said it would be anounced march 2010, then holydays, and now 2012 i say lets think about L.A noir for now!!

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cjek

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The problem with GTAIV was that it was a brand new and radically different game engine; they started totally from scratch and clearly there wasn't enough time to add all the old features. Now they have something to work from, so the next GTA should have the awesome engine of GTAIV, but hopefully with a San Andreas level of content: Larger map (with different areas like SA which had desert, urban, forest, country, mountain), a huge array of side missions, character customisation, some degree of car mods, planes, and most of all, just a step away from realism. They added parachutes and a tank (of sorts) to GTAIV eventually, so you can see that they want to go back to the slightly exaggerated world of past GTA's. I can't wait to see what they come up with.

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Foxdies

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L.A. Noire should keep us busy untill then.. As for GtaV, I would love to see a campaign that is completely playable in co-op on top of the epic multiplayer..

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protoroc

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I hope they build off of RDR as it had more options

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Hillsy_

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I thought the voice acting was good along with the script. You did feel part of your surroundings, but the game was boring, too slow paced; cumbersome controls and blurry and dark on the PS3. Never tried the expansions though which I heard were pretty good. There is alot of detail in the GTA games, just cumbersome problems. GTA III had dreadful combat controls, GTA IV corrected these as best they could but added other problems. The ideas are good, I just don't think we have seen the best that GTA has to offer.

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bschroth

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the thing i most want from the next gta is a more jerk type character. like many its always weird to have this so called good character in the cutscenes while in game play that same character is a complete murderous psycho.

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DragonRift

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GTA4 wasn't as good as I was hoping, but it's still a fantastic game that kept me hooked for weeks, regardless. I was expecting a larger step up, and less of a "3.5" feeling, if you catch what I mean. Hopefully with 5, they'll take larger risks, and try something fresh. Like maybe more than one main character you can choose to play as, with a completely different story path for each? Perhaps another retro setting, like the 70s (or hell, I'd happily go to the 80s again). I'm pretty much open to anything. :)

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shibiovski

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All I want is a London setting and create your own character. Its gonna be awesome whatever they do...

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E-i-N-e

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If they make another GTA, it needs to have gangs once again. Oh and they need to reinstate planes back into the game.

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analgrin

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The only problem with the GTA series is they are getting so close to real life that its becoming like our everyday lives and thats what we want to break free from when gaming. Dont get me wrong ive been a great fan of the series and still love GTA4 In my mind no other game has come close to creating a living breathing world. Infamous, assassins creed' just cause 2 make a good effort but in those games if you stand around for a while you will notice people repeating their conversations. Even to this day with many many hours\days of GTA time under my belt I still cant say that ive heard a single line of audio repeated (If I have then it was so long ago that I cant recall it, again like real life), And some of the one liners people come out with still make me lol. Usually as a result of somethin my character has done i.e. accidently knock a cup out of someones hand, or gently bump into someone while driving. I dont mind how long it takes for the next one to come out, as long rockstar doesnt get lazy im sure they will do a great job

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supernaught360

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GTA has been eclipsed already, by games like iNfamous, and Assassins Creed: Brotherhood. I know those aren't "crime dramas" but they've got a HELL of a lot more going on gameplay-wise. The only logical place to go with open world/sandbox games is MMO. A living breathing city populated by real players, co-existing with NPC's, where you get to PICK what you wanna be. Wanna be a store owner, selling wares to real players? A cop, keeping the peace from the inevitable lawless players? How about a soldier, or National Guardsman that deploys when the "bad guys" bring out the heavy artillery? Maybe you just wanna be a street bum that relies on the charity of other human players? Human gang warfare, with human cops, human soldiers, and human pedestrians trying to eek out a virtual life... maybe you just wanna cruise around in a car with your friends, and someone attacks you - an alert goes off on the human cop players radios to show up at the scene - sound like fun?

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SicklySunStorm

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Can Rockstar do any wrong [nudges Manhunt out the window]? So far, every Rockstar game I've played is a treat, with the GTA series being the pinnacle. Easily my most favourite series of games by a long shot... I'd like to see them go international with this next outing with multiple cities in the US and elsewhere. If that means waiting til 2012, or even better yet, for the next wave of systems so they're more technically capable, so be it. I'd much rather wait and see the game done right than have it rushed just to satiate buyers....

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needsnointro

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Glad we pay over $100 retail for new games. $750m, hope that's enough to pay everyone.

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FreddoX12

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Just as good, now they've hopefully listened to its fanbase and have a start-off point the length of Jupiter's orbit. It will be brilliant, I'm sure of it.

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wills_b

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I liked GTA4, thought it was a technical marvel, but I didn't love it. Just felt very cold to me. Nico was great but the story turned into a mess of gangster cliches. Also only having 4 save points on a map that size is an absolute joke. I hope the next one ups the fun level, downs the crap car level and just allows more interaction with the city. I know it's a totally different game, but in Assassins Creed you feel like the city itself is the playground and basis of the game, whereas for me GTA4 just felt like lots of very pretty, unused scenery.

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crossaxe

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@criegz gta4 is one of the greatest games of all time and one of the highest rated. san andreas is up there aswell

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criegz

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Call me old-fashioned, but if San Andreas had IV graphics...you would have had arguably one of the greatest games of all time. (Yes, I am aware it is pretty awesome already :P)

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Bruce_the_Ugga

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I love all the GTA titles since GTAIII, but GTAIV is my favorite. The improved car handling and realism is a winner. I would love to see a reimagined version of Vice City with GTAIV/RDR style graphics and realism.

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xGho5tx

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They should take there time with this one. Quality over quantity.

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Thxsen

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San Andreas was the last good GTA..

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the22for4

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for me as for this game it should take a lot of time to be great but not too much.

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eriktkire

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@TheJamin That'd be nice but I bet they'll play it safe. Vice City or San Andreas. I just hope they don't repeat the flaws of GTA4 and bring back the funness of the GTA3 series (not that GTA4 was horrible in game design, just not as good). Of course, they could always place it in Carcer City (from Manhunt). The mass corruption and hardcore ghetto wastelands are just being cleaned up kind of thing... without the snuff content.

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TheJamin

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I'd love to see it brought back to London. sniping some sucker from the london eye or something crazy.

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TheJamin

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@ george999819 ah yes, it was rated high by the critics - apparently that makes it less buggy. I tried it on the xbox first, it was the blurriest game i have ever had the misfortune to play. so i waited and waited for the PC version. which came out full of bugs and no workable SLI. here we are at the end of 2010 and SLI support is still pretty much a shambles. it performed quite well with patch 1.0.4.0 for me but then they released a new one and now it's unplayable again. my pc is no slouch either.

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TheJamin

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please rockstar, release it in 2014 for the pc so you can actually spend time making it playable. and by playable i don't mean like the numerous crappy patches for GTA IV on the PC.

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gameboy716

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I think I can wait a pretty long time for some or a pretty good game(s).;)

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