Game Of Thrones Season 8 Deaths, As Predicted By Data

Who's next to die on HBO's hit TV show?


A lot of people die on the acclaimed HBO show Game of Thrones, and this trend is expected to continue with the upcoming eighth and final season in 2019.

But which characters specifically will bite the dust? A data scientist, Taylor Larkin of Boston-based DataRobot, has created a very involved algorithm that aims to answer the question. You can read Larkin's incredibly in-depth and jargon-heavy methodology here, but in short, he looked at 2,000 characters from A Son of Ice and Fire and factored in their characteristics. These include gender, age, house, nobility status, and how other family members have died. Using this criteria, and factoring out characters who have already died, Larkin's modeling showed that

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You can see the results below, as compiled by Entertainment Weekly.

  • Daenerys Targaryen – 83.77% chance of death
  • Jaime Lannister – 72.91% chance of death
  • Tyrion Lannister – 70.76% chance of death
  • Bran Stark – 66.02% chance of death
  • Cersei Lannister – 60.39% chance of death
  • Jon Snow – 58.99% chance of death
  • Euron Greyjoy – 54.95% chance of death
  • Sansa Stark – 50.28% chance of death
  • Arya Stark – 49.04% chance of death
  • Gendry – 39.87% chance of death

Larkin submitted some notes on the results, saying it's interesting to see how someone already having dead relatives upped their own chance of perishing. He also noted that males are also more at risk of dying, while the Lannister siblings are in a dicey situation to their relative old age.

Larkin also stressed that of course his analysis is not necessarily predictive of anything that will actually happen. "While it's a fun exercise to use book details to predict future plot points in the show, it's ultimately going to be the showrunners who decide the fate of Westeros and all those who are involved," he said.

Game of Thrones Season 8 premieres sometime in 2019. There are six episodes in all, which doesn't sound like many, but remember that they might all be as long as movies. In other news, we recently learned about a battle scene that took 55 nights to shoot.

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