Destiny Players "Getting Restless" for New Content, Analyst Says
A Destiny Taken King-sized expansion could come this year, industry analyst Doug Creutz says.
In the wake of Kotaku's report on Friday regarding the future of Bungie's Destiny, namely that Destiny 2 might be delayed, Doug Creutz of research firm Cowen & Company this evening released a note to investors. In his brief, Creutz notes that even if Destiny 2 is in fact delayed, the upside for Destiny in 2016 remains strong, thanks in part to the assumption of a Taken King-sized expansion coming this year.
"Our model assumes a Taken King-sized expansion for Destiny in 2016," Creutz said. "We did think that Destiny 2 was a possible, and even likely, source of upside in 2016. However, as long as there is new Destiny content in 2016, we feel confident in our overall company growth assumptions and would remain bullish on the long-term value of the franchise."
If no "meaningful" content for Destiny is released in 2016, that would be cause for concern, Creutz said.
Destiny's first year of extra content included paid expansions The Dark Below (December 2014), House of Wolves (May 2015), and The Taken King (September 2015). Microsotransactions, another source of revenue for Bungie and Activision, were implemented for Destiny in October 2015. These alone could generate "hundreds of millions" for Destiny, Creutz said earlier.
No new paid expansions for Destiny have been announced. For its part, Bungie has acknowledged that players are eager for something more substantial beyond seasonal events like the upcoming Crimson Days Valentine's Day event. "There are more stories about 2016 that remain to be told," Bungie said last week.
Creutz also states that Destiny players are yearning for a roadmap that details what's coming next.
"Destiny's player base is clearly getting restless for new content, particularly since this is the first time since the launch of the game in 2014 that more than a couple of months have gone by without having a clear roadmap as to what is in the near-term pipeline," he explained. "A significant erosion of the game's player base would be a disappointment and a major missed opportunity. While we suspect most players would return for a 2017 Destiny 2, there are no guarantees in this business, particularly since we think many players felt there was an implicit guarantee of regular, meaningful content updates for the game."
Additionally, Creutz pointed out that Destiny community manager David "DeeJ" Dague suggested on Twitter today that he's writing a blog post that will address concerns Destiny players might have regarding the future of the game. Bungie's Weekly Update blog posts are typically released on Thursday evenings.
One eye on #CMAD well-wishes. One eye on an article I'm writing to address issues we face as a community. Thanks for the chance to serve.— DeeJ (@DeeJ_BNG) January 25, 2016
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