Destiny 3 Coming In 2020, Analyst Predicts Amid Bungie/Activision Breakup

Research company says Bungie and Activision splitting up is ultimately good for the series.

14 Comments

One of the biggest gaming news stories so far in 2019 broke today when Activision and Bungie confirmed they are ending their publishing deal for Destiny. Going forward, Bungie will take on development and publishing duties for Destiny, while Activision will focus on its own franchises, like Call of Duty.

Research firm Cowen & Company shared its thoughts on the news in a note to investors today, and one prediction the company made was that Bungie will release Destiny 3 in 2020. This is not an altogether surprising revelation, as the Destiny series normally releases new mainline entries every three years.

Destiny 1 launched in 2014, with Destiny 2 coming in 2017. According to Cowen & Company, the initial deal between Activision and Bungie called for new Destiny games every two years, but this shifted to one new game every three years. This slip might have contributed to what Cowen & Company called a "growing divergence" between Activision and Bungie's respective visions for where the Destiny franchise should go.

While Destiny and Destiny 2 might have been commercially successful on a unit basis, the games did not achievement the kind of "recurring revenue stream" that Activision wanted, Cowen & Company said. Indeed, Activision management recently said Destiny 2: Forsaken failed to meet its commercial expectations, and as a result, the company was looking at ways to bring more microtransactions to the game. Whether or not that's still the case now that Bungie operates Destiny 2 by itself remains to be seen.

According to Cowen, Bungie's attempts to broaden the Destiny player community with a more casual friendly Destiny 2 didn't work out, and while Destiny 2: Forsaken was praised by critics and fans, it didn't do a good enough job at bringing back lapsed players.

Cowen estimates that Activision severed ties with Bungie and Activision to focus on strengthening its own fully owned franchises like Call of Duty, even if it meant taking a financial hit in the short term. The upside of investing in its own franchises was greater than continuing to sink resources into an under-performing series like Destiny, Cowen said.

Also in the report, Cowen said Bungie likely paid Activision a fee to reclaim the Destiny publishing rights, but the figure is not likely "enormously significant," it said.

Losing Destiny will hurt Activision Blizzard's bottom line, Cowen said, estimating that the company will announce lowered financial guidance when it reports earnings next in February.

"Ultimately, we think this decision is probably for the best for Destiny as a franchise, as we think having two head cooks in the kitchen with somewhat divergent views created some issues with the development process and led the game down some blind alleys," Cowen said. "Destiny was a worthwhile attempt by Activision to build another cornerstone franchise, one that just didn't quite pan out as they had hoped (underlining once again the high difficulty of creating and managing a successful live service game business), in our view."

There continue to be unanswered questions about the Bungie/Activision breakup, including what it means for Destiny support studios High Moon and Vicarious Visions. Those studios, which are owned by Activision, might shift to other Activision projects, but no official announcements have been made at this point.

For more on the big Destiny news, check out the stories linked below.

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syncroniam

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If Destiny 1 and Destiny 2 were both released on Steam now Bungie would have a huge and stable revenue stream but instead they decided to bring Destiny 2 on battlenet which is a much smaller platform that noone cares about and Destiny 1 was not even released on PC, that's what you get for messing up this badly when the correct choice is clear as day.

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Barighm

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@syncroniam: Nobody cares about WoW, Call of Duty, Overwatch, or Diablo 3, huh? You know those games alone account for like 100 million gamers?

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DaVillain-

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DaVillain-  Moderator

Sorry but Anthem is gonna be my new play game to go, so screw Destiny 3.

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Psilo

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Edited By Psilo

@davillain-: Yeah, screw Destiny 3. Anthem sure has shown Bungie how its done.

Lol

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timothySS10

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@davillain-: to be fair, its EA, they can screw that game up just as well if not worse. i can totally see half the mec armor (what ever their called) being locked behind $9.99 paywall, EACH

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Richardthe3rd

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@timothyss10: this, Anthem has been touted as a make or break game for Bioware.

Which lends itself to EA breathing hard down their neck for the financial results they want to see. That's typically a very bad thing.

I will be waiting very patiently before/if I decide to bite on Anthem.

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untouchables111

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Commence the breath holding...... .... .... .

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thedre666

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Edited By thedre666

MS to buy Bungie now??

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attirex

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My favorite part of Destiny is when I didn't buy either 1 or 2.

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Richardthe3rd

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@attirex: I didnt either and got Destiny 2 for free on the Battle.net launcher.

I played it for like 30 minutes and went back to games that dont blow.

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attirex

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Edited By attirex

@Richardthe3rd:

Exactly what I did--got it for free and played for about 30 mins. It was the most generic, boring shooter I've ever experienced. The guns had no weight, the enemies were uninspiring. It made me want to give up on life.

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timothySS10

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@attirex: their not bad games, just not great games. i feel fans held bungie up to unreachable standards that they couldn't even identify themselves. both 1 and 2 are cheap and well worth the price of admission. trust me, u have payed far more for far worse games lol

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IllBiller

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Edited By IllBiller

My favorite part of destiny 2 was buying the game at launch and then forced to get the dlc a couple weeks later to keep playing. Good times

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timothySS10

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@illbiller: lets try almost 4 months later =/ i remember the DLC was released on dec the 5 because that was my friends birthday, which i gifted him with a season pass.

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