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Analyst: Xbox One may have 3x more launch units than PS4

Robert W. Baird predicts Microsoft's console may be more readily available, though supply for both likely to be "constrained."

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The Xbox One may have two to three times more launch units than the PlayStation 4 this holiday, according to Robert W. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian.

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In a note to investors today, he said this superior launch allocation would give Microsoft an initial advantage, but noted supply for both next-generation systems will likely be "constrained," leading to potential shortages. His estimations are based on supply chain checks.

Sebastian also said the tides are turning for Microsoft, following its dramatic policy reversal last month that saw the company roll back various controversial features.

"Despite losing the headline battle at E3, we believe that Xbox One has regained some momentum in recent weeks, in part due to modifications in policies related to online connectivity and used games," Sebastian said.

Sebastian also discussed the prospects for the Wii U, saying its suite of holiday titles will make or break the system.

"Nintendo's Wii U remains challenged, needs a price cut, and the fate of the platform will likely rest on the popularity of Nintendo's holiday software lineup," he said.

High-profile first-party Wii U games due out this year include Pikmin 3 (August), The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD (October), Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (November), and Super Mario 3D World (December).

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tjkraz

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tjkraz

Personally I see the next generation playing out similarly to the current. In the long run, MS and Sony will trade blows over pricing, exclusives, freebies and other perks. They are both in the same ballpark in terms of system specs, which gives them a leg up over Nintendo.

If there is any major change for either company, it could come in the form of profitability. Specifically Microsoft. They've been able to cruise in recent years with fewer exclusive titles and no comparable product to the Playstation Plus freebies.

But MS will adapt. If they have to give out free games, they will. If they have to pour more money into exclusives, they will.

We're in for another decade of MS vs. Sony fanboy banter. Neither system is going to disappear from the face of the earth. And as consumers, we're all better off for it.

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Suaron_x

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Suaron_x

While MS's policy reversal really jumpstarted their pre-orders, there will be a decent percentage of gamers that will buy both systems regardless. I see the playstation plus and MS's offset thumbstick controllers/achievement system as keeping the core fanboys on their respective systems. The system exlcusives already appeal to the respective fanboys. If MS matches the Sony freebie model, then there would be a driver for online gamers to go to the Xbox, since Sony is no longer free and MS has a more developed cloud.

However, since both systems are similar, Sony does have hydraulic economics on their side with a price point $100 lower. Gamers without console loyalty, tend to purchase the cheaper product, regardless. At some point in the future, I suspect MS will have pricing pressure to remove the Kinect from the base package. With both architectures being similar, I imagine most/all third party developers will develop for both systems. Therefore, I see there being less of a reason to purchase two consoles in this generation, which will result in lower overall sales and more media heralding the end of the consoles are near.

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HisDudeness28

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HisDudeness28

Even if those 4 nintendo titles were to double Wii U sales to around 7 million units, that's still pretty low and still wouldn't be enough to cause developers to see a point in developing for the Wii U. I don't think those titles are going to make that big an impact on sales.

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Dieofnv

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Dieofnv

$ony fan boys ATTACK!!!!!!!!!

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Avatar image for G4m3r0uTL4wZ
G4m3r0uTL4wZ

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G4m3r0uTL4wZ

@Dieofnv 3x more sitting on the shelves**

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strongmokus

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strongmokus

@G4m3r0uTL4wZ @Dieofnv Your analysis is more trustworthy for me.

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Truth_Hurts_U

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Edited By Truth_Hurts_U

Doubt that since they are late to the party ( no dev kits at e3, only PC's ) [ while PS4 had dev kits there ] and sold less pre-orders at Amazon.

They also never had Unlimited pre-orders for a time at Gamestop as well... Like PS4.

If anything PS4 is going to have more. No power brick or camera to make and bundle in a box. It's a simple, yet complex system in a smaller package.

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tylerbrunson

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Edited By tylerbrunson

@Truth_Hurts_U You forget that Sony didn't even have a system to reveal at their console reveal. They were still designing the thing. And are you sure PS4 outsold the One on Amazon? Also, go to your local Gamestop and ask them if they know their actually going to fulfill all those "unlimited pre-orders." They'll tell you heck no. Xbox One doesn't have a power brick. And please don't forget that until Sony found out the price of the One, they were going to include the Eye with the PS4 so that didn't help their production speed.

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Moegitto

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Moegitto

How would this be true if Microsoft was having problems with the RAM? And considering Gamestop had 10 Xbox ONE units available to pre-order at some stores compared to having 40 PS4 units? Is this another guy talking out of his ass?

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