Analyst predicts new GBA this holiday season

The technology stork may be visiting Nintendo prematurely this year. Just months after Nintendo delivered its most recent baby, the dual-screen goodness known as the DS, word has it that Nintendo is already getting busy working on a new handheld, the successor to the Game Boy Advance SP.

The news comes from Analyst PJ McNealy of American Technology Research, who released a statement today declaring, "It is likely that the next version of the Game Boy Advance SP will ship as early as this holiday, ahead of most expectations of calendar year 2006."

When contacted for comment, Beth Llewelyn, senior director of public relations at Nintendo of America said, "There is always speculation on what the next Game Boy will be, however, at this time there are no announcements about a new Game Boy SP product."

Why would Nintendo release a new handheld just a year after it released the innovative DS? For one, Nintendo has always maintained that the GBA and the DS were targeted at different audiences, with the GBA aiming at the children's market and the DS trying to tap into an older audience. McNealy also points out the fact that Nintendo has consistently released new versions of the GBA every two years, putting the new model on track for release this holiday season.

And while piracy may not be rampant in North America, it is plaguing Asian markets. A new version of the GBA could help alleviate this problem, crippling the illegal activity that costs Nintendo revenue every year.

Specifications on the new system are purely speculative at this point, with theories ranging from simple cosmetic and performance enhancements to a graphical leap that's similar to current-generation consoles. If previous models are any indication, the latter isn't likely. The leap from GBA to GBA SP included a new illuminated screen, rechargeable battery, and design improvements, but the systems' processors were identical.

McNealy predicts that Nintendo will sell the new GBA SP for the same current price point as its predecessor, $99, and drop the original GBA SP down to $49.

On the financial side of things, McNealy sees nothing but good coming out of a new GBA SP for companies involved in GBA software, particularly third-party developers THQ and Activision. Given the lack of material increase as a result of development and research--the new GBA is likely to be backward-compatible with previous GBA software--THQ and Activision should continue to thrive in the portable market.

McNealy goes on to say, "The Nintendo DS has, by and large, been additive to Nintendo software revenue and units sales and not cannibalistic. Even with the DS launch in November, GBA software revenue and unit sales were up double-digits in December and January."