Analyst: Nintendo's $14.5B guidance 'conservative'

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter says game giant will beat expectations and reap $5.2B in third-quarter sales; expects 12M DSes, 7M Wiis sold globally for past quarter.

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In its half-yearly financial report in October, Nintendo gave investors what it thought to be good news, stating revenues of ¥694.80 billion (about $6.5 billion) on profits of ¥132.42 billion (about $1.2 billion), both of which were double over the year before. However, even the steadiest downpour eventually tapers off, and some analysts have become skeptical of the long-term staying power of the gaming-industry stalwart.

Such concern is for naught, according to Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter. The noted game-industry watcher today said Nintendo was tracking to beat its guidance for its fiscal year 2008, which ends March 31. Pachter believes Nintendo's ¥1.55 trillion (about $14.5 billion) full-year revenue projecting skews toward the modest, and believes the console maker will soon revise its guidance upward.

"Nintendo's recent financial performance has been spectacular and we continue to believe its 2008 fiscal year guidance is conservative," said Pachter in a preview of Nintendo's third quarter earnings report, which is expected January 24. "We believe that global DS sales were likely around 12 million units during the quarter, and that global Wii sales were around 7 million, placing the company on track to exceed guidance for the fiscal year."

While Nintendo has not provided predictions for its third-quarter revenues, Pachter believes Nintendo will report sales of ¥565 billion (about $5.2 billion) for the quarter, riding "continued strong demand for its Wii and DS."

Recently called "the belle of the hardware ball" by NPD Group analyst Anita Frasier, Nintendo has achieved stunning global success. According to the latest figures released by NPD, nearly 1.4 million Wiis and 2.5 million DSes were sold during December's five-week reporting period, which ran through January 5. For the year, Nintendo sold nearly 6.3 million Wiis and 8.5 million DSes in the US alone.

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